Today's Shanghai 50 red disk, the decline rate is really not fast, the morning closing 120 minutes smiley face formed, but considering that in the early stage of the decline, this smiley face skipped. Today, as long as it does not rise much, Zhou's crying face will be formed. Small cycles follow large cycles, and bumps are inevitable. There is no perfect deal, leave it to the market.
As shown in the figure: Each wave of bull market is basically two and a half years to three years, this time should be the longest, the head upward force failure is obvious.
This wave of cattle is stronger than the previous three times, and a little weaker than in 2007 and 15 years. But time is enough. Some people must have asked the Jones index has been rising, how can we fall, and the A-share index will definitely follow the route of the Dow in the future, right?
Let's do the math, A shares started at 334 points on July 1994, this wave peaked at 3700 points, and now the high point is 11 times the original. The Dow was calculated from 3765 points in July 1994, and this wave has a maximum of 35900 points, and now the high point is ten times faster than the original. But the Dow has only 30 stocks, while the Shanghai Zongzhi index is a few thousand stocks in Shanghai. From this point of view, our gains are much larger than the US Dow Jones Index. Therefore, if a share does not rise, it is a lie. It's not that it doesn't go up, it's that it's overgrown.
Also because of the past crazy, let countless people's profits become losses, but also because of the losses, let the A-share shareholders know that they have profited, to the obvious high points do not profit, and finally the bamboo basket hit the water empty. The decline in the SSE 50 does not clearly illustrate this point. Aren't they all white horses, aren't they all value investing, and why are they still falling? Stocks fluctuate around value, but prices tend to drift far from value.
Retail investors have always played a losing role in the market, in the past, now, and in the future, in China, in the United States, and in other countries. You don't lose money, whose money the fund institution makes, which investors are relying on dividends to fill their stomachs. The stock market itself does not generate value, basically what you earn is what others lose.
Sooner or later, the a-share index will also have a big cycle like the Dow, but it will definitely not be the Shanghai Index, the most likely is the Shanghai 50, the best does not rise, who will rise?