On the evening of November 5, also a pleasant Friday night, the black system rebounded in an all-round way, and the thermal coal was close to 1000 again, driving methanol and thread to rise sharply, and rebounded more than a hundred points, which is a big breakthrough for methanol and threads that are sluggish this week. So next week, can threaded methanol continue its rally? Is it a shock or a unilateral rise?
Hello everyone, I am Kankan, a hard-working and serious analyst. Everyone has been waiting for a long time, tonight to talk to you about the smooth rebound of methanol and threads, a simple analysis of what may go next week.
First of all, the conclusion: next week methanol or continue to run strongly, follow the idea of low and more. The thread continues to oscillate, making a range profit.
Let's talk about two digressions first, before the opening of the market, I sent a dynamic to say that methanol in the evening continues to be much lower, and when it falls, it will increase the position, many friends have listened to it, so tonight is also full of harvest, why would I speculate like this? Here we will repeat the reasons, and let's hear if there is any truth.
First of all, the fundamentals, there is no word other than supply and demand, based on the expectation of gas head parking in November, due to cost and supply assurance, coal-to-methanol parking and negative concentration, superimposed Iranian part of the device temporary stop, etc., the supply side has a certain favorable support; in the case of timely demand, it is also a favorable factor for methanol rebound.
And the recovery of domestic methanol downstream in November is expected to also give a positive transmission on the demand side. Overall, there is room for repair in the future market of methanol futures. Therefore, the methanol night market rebounded smoothly, breaking through more than 100 points, like a big step forward.
Technically, since the beginning of November methanol began a low shock, and this afternoon's closing is also a tail sharp fall, in order to prepare for the evening bulls to increase positions, after the opening of the retail hesitation period, the main force suddenly increased the position of the big rise, continue the shock market, because the afternoon tail plate fell after the bottom, the rebound is deserved.
So why does rebar also rebound?
In fact, this is even simpler, the basis of the thread has recently hovered around 1000, I said earlier that with the approaching of the delivery month, the basis will continue to shrink, and the spot thread has been close to the bottom after continuous price reduction, and it is impossible to fall endlessly. With the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is inevitable that prices will stabilize.
Then experience in the futures market, the continuous decline in the variety spot price stabilization, it means that the futures will rebound. It can be said that this thread rebound can be analyzed in a real way.
So why would I say continuation of the oscillation next week's rebar instead of unilaterally going up?
Because, Cheng also Xiao He defeated Xiao He, the situation of weak supply and demand determines that rebar will rebound in the case of continuous decline, but it also gives it the resistance to break through, the demand for real estate near the New Year is reduced, and there is also news that the real estate tax is short building materials, rebar said that the surge is difficult to appear in any case.
Therefore, the thread next week is most likely to maintain the shock, hovering upwards between 4100 and 4400. The operation idea is high throw low suction, simple and simple. Is it possible to fall below 4100 or rise above 4400? It is also possible that everything is absolute, my analysis is only a prediction, not a holy will, and it cannot be said that it is framed there without crossing the thunder pool.
Finally, let's summarize:
Methanol, low multi-idea, pullback is bullish; thread, high throw low suction, range profit.
The above is a personal opinion, for reference only, what do you think of next week's thread and methanol?
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