People who know me well know that I am a huge fan of Musk, and he is involved in online payments, unmanned cars, super tunnels, solar walls, aerospace technology, Mars colonization, brain-computer interfaces, Starlink projects... Every field is brain-opening and jaw-dropping, Ma Yun just picked up people and did an online payment in China, and became the richest man in the country. And Musk, the madman who works an average of 120 hours a week, has been a leader in these fields. Zip2, PayPal, SpaceX, Solarcity, Hyperloop, Tesla, this dizzying string of companies all have Musk behind them. Among them, SpaceX is the fourth organization that can launch and recover space vehicles after the United States, Russia and China. China's space city 12,000 people to launch a spacecraft costs $120 million, the United States Spacex company's team of more than 400 people, the launch of a spacecraft only needs $6 million, this gap is not small, so a lot of people say that Musk is a Martian. In an interview, the reporter asked Musk why there are so many innovations, Musk said, on the one hand, a lot of reading, on the other hand, using "first principles" to think about ways to solve problems.
Suddenly, the "First Principles" caught fire.
The first principle is actually very simple, Musk in the startup of the well-known "on the good, the next must work" principle, in the high-end market launched can be comparable to the world's top sports car roadstar, but when delivery found a problem, that is, the price of $80,000 roadstar manufacturing costs as high as 100,000 US dollars, in order to manufacture why roadstar so expensive? Because the cost of power batteries is too expensive, then why is the power battery so expensive, because the manufacturer sells expensive, Musk thinks, power battery is not the product of some metal elements combined together? These raw materials are not so valuable on the London Metal Exchange, and as long as we find a way to integrate the batteries together, aren't they not so expensive? It is the first principle: using "raw material" information, through the most basic causal relationship and logical reasoning, to derive and analyze the problem, and finally draw conclusions, without using "semi-finished product" information to derive and analyze. When we think about problems in ordinary times, we are largely based on the use of "semi-finished products". Just like we do pictures, use ps, do web pages, use dreamwerver, very few people use Notepad to write code directly.
We usually speculate in stocks, learn to play the board, learn to suck low, learn the moving average, learn the chips, which is also based on the use of "semi-finished products" on the basis of the stock trading method, the books of stock speculation are full of cattle, many are experienced investors wrote out some experience experience. What we learn is nothing more than the inheritance and development of their scholarship.
In the past six months, I have been thinking about how to use the first-principles way of thinking to make stocks, and the "first principles" in economics have a theory of supply and demand. Prices rise when supply outstrips supply and declines when supply is oversupplied. So is it that stock speculation should be considered like this: buy or sell, first study the stock supply or oversupply; stocks are bought and sold every day, what is the performance of oversupply? What is the performance of the short supply?