According to the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on March 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs sent a working group to Henan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Shaanxi and other 5 provinces (cities) to carry out supervision and research, focusing on the investigation and understanding of the occurrence of wheat stripe rust and grassland night moth, supervising and guiding the implementation of monitoring and prevention measures, and studying countermeasures and suggestions for the main problems that exist.
According to the investigation and monitoring of the National Crop Disease and Pest Monitoring Network and the consultation of experts, combined with the analysis of the overwintering base of the main diseases and insect pests, crop layout and climatic conditions, this year, China's wheat stripe rust, grassland moth and other major crop diseases and insect pests generally showed a more serious incidence trend, and the degree was heavier than that of the previous year.
At present, it is a critical period for the prevention and control of major diseases and insect pests such as wheat stripe rust, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires all localities to consolidate their responsibilities for prevention and control, step up their work, strengthen measures, and go all out to "grab grain from insects" to ensure a bumper harvest.
It is understood that the grassland night moth mainly affects the production of corn and other grains, in 2019, the grassland night moth destroyed 16.88 million mu of cultivated land in 26 provinces and regions across the country, and Wu Kongming, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that in early April this year, the insect plague may reach the Yangtze River Basin, in May to the Yellow River Basin, and in June to the northeast region.
However, Xie Yan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has previously said that the pesticides for prevention and control are generally sufficient. First of all, the resumption rate of 1559 pesticide enterprises in the country has reached 83%, and the resumption rate of 250,000 pesticide stores has reached 91%, which is close to the level of perennial. Secondly, the current urgent need for wheat stripe rust, gibberellosis, and rape sclerotia drugs, involving 156 pesticide enterprises, the resumption rate has reached 94%, can provide 65,000 tons of pesticides, can meet the demand for pesticides. Third, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs optimized and recommended 28 kinds of drugs for grassland night moths, and the inventory can also meet the control needs of 600 million mu of the same type of pest.
In addition, a few days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "2020 National Grassland Nightcrawler Prevention and Control Plan", optimized and adjusted the emergency control drugs for grassland nightcrawler, and recommended the renewal of 28 kinds of emergency control agents, including 8 single doses, 6 biological agents, and 14 compound preparations.
Guolian Securities pointed out that at present, the grassland moth is mainly concentrated in the south (including Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong and other places), the degree of damage is in the initial stage, by the end of March spring sowing will begin to plant corn on a large scale, at this time the spread of the grassland moth will accelerate in the south, the first stage of harm concentration period is expected to be around April. After that, the grassland night moth migrated north and entered the Huanghuai Plain, when the corn was just in the seedling stage, and then rushed to the northeast should be in the trumpet mouth stage, and it is expected to enter the second stage of the hazard period, the time is around June.
At the same time, Guolian Securities said that genetically modified corn or due to the grassland moth forced to achieve "0 to 1" in the commercial field. Because Chinese hybrid corn seeds do not have their own resistance, pesticides alone cannot eradicate the harm of grassland moth, and transgenic corn may enter commercial application early. At present, Dabeinong and Hangzhou Ruifeng transgenic corn varieties have obtained safety certificates, and the commercial application will be accelerated after the variety review in the later stage.
Huatai Securities pointed out that the grassland moth is classified as a family of nocturnal moths in the genus Nocturnal Moth, originating in tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas, and in the absence of natural control conditions or poor management of prevention and control, it will pose a serious threat to crops, especially like to eat corn. Due to its wide spread, difficult control, rapid reproduction and hidden characteristics, the threat of grassland moth to China's agriculture or will be normalized, this year's scope of impact on agriculture or will be further expanded, short-term prevention and control to rely on pesticides, long-term control of the foothold or for genetically modified crops.
Under the reform of agricultural supply side, the inflection point of the corn industry has arrived, corn destocking + grassland moth caused by crop yield reduction, the demand for seeds is expected to increase in the future, and the investment value of the seed plate is expected to increase significantly. At the same time, the commercialization needs of genetically modified crops have been more urgent, and it is recommended to pay attention to related seed industry targets, such as Longping Hi-Tech, Denghai Seed Industry, Dabeinong, etc. The risk of diffusion of the grassland moth is expected to bring about an increase in the demand for related pesticides, including raw drug suppliers such as Limin Shares, Red Sun and Zhongqi Shares, comprehensive preparation suppliers such as Adama and Nopuxin, and chlorantranobenzoamide (DuPont patented drugs) intermediate suppliers such as Yaben Chemical.
CICC pointed out that recently, adult grassland moths were found in 228 counties in China, about two months earlier than in 2019, and the prevention and control situation of grassland moths in 2020 is grim. Referring to the Brazilian market, there is a large space for pesticides. After Brazil became the main disaster to maize after 2010, the pressure of insect infestation has eased after six years. At the same time, the sales of locally-led chlorhexabenzamide insecticides continue to grow, and the agency believes that China's insecticide demand will maintain rapid growth in the next five years, and the insecticide space is large. It is recommended to prefer insecticidal targets, and pay attention to high-quality growth weeding and sterilization targets.