Original I am Ivan the Great
According to the "South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness" think tank quoted by the National Defense and Military Channel of the Central Radio and Television Corporation, on the morning of 1 November, the US Air Force and the US Naval Aviation Unit stationed in Japan made a large-scale dispatch in the direction of the South China Sea, successively using a number of sorties of strategic reconnaissance planes and maritime patrol aircraft to fly through the Bashi Strait to the sea west of the main island of Taiwan.
According to the latest news, the US military made a big move in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea yesterday, and almost all of the US reconnaissance aircraft fleets were dispatched, and even the Taiwan military also dispatched p3cs.
At the same time, on November 2, the U.S. Air Force continued to move in the direction of the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and in addition to the P-8A, ep-3e and other aircraft, a new model of the RC-135 electronic reconnaissance aircraft also appeared. This means that the activities of the US military in the South China Sea and the East China Sea have once again seen a "small climax" since late October. On October 31 alone, the U.S. military dispatched four aircraft with a total of five strategic reconnaissance aircraft.
In October 2021, the US military dispatched a total of 52 large reconnaissance aircraft to the South China Sea to conduct close reconnaissance of China.
At the same time, because all the US aircraft that flew in these times turned on the ADS-b transponder, we were able to easily observe the trajectory of the US military. Judging from the radius of activity, these US military planes reconnoitred the waters between the Dongsha Islands and the main island of Taiwan, and at one point they were closer to Chinese mainland. However, at the "last minute", the US military made a timely U-turn, and all the aircraft did not have visual contact with the Chinese Air Force.
For this dispatch of the US Air Force and naval aviation, Ivan the Great should be evaluated, which can basically be described as follows: "The scale is large, the mission is reasonable, the goal is clear, and the threat is very large."
Larger in scale
Saying that the US military planes flying to the South China Sea this time were "relatively large-scale," the US military allegedly dispatched four models and five strategic reconnaissance planes during the operation on the morning of October 31:
The U.S. WC-135W nuclear reconnaissance aircraft, which is capable of collecting radioactive particles from the atmosphere, is very rare in the South China Sea, and its last operation in the South China Sea dates back to January 2020.
Among them, the first to open the ads-b, we saw, is a WC-135W nuclear reconnaissance aircraft numbered 61-2667, which is also the only WC-135W aircraft left in the US Air Force.
From its performance point of view, the main task module of WC-135W is the radioactive dust sampling device located in the middle of the body and the encapsulation detection device inside the body, which can be sampled by sampling dust particles in the air to determine whether there is nuclear activity in a certain area. The most recent appearance of this type of nuclear reconnaissance aircraft, which was deployed at the Iwagoku Air Base in Japan to monitor North Korea's nuclear weapons tests, and this time it unusually entered the South China Sea for a mission, which is actually quite intriguing.
E-8c "Union Star" battlefield surveillance aircraft numbered 99-0006 (infographic)
Subsequently, the ADS-B was opened by an e-8c "Joint Star" battlefield surveillance aircraft numbered 99-0006, which is a long-range, long-duration strategic reconnaissance aircraft that undertakes battlefield surveillance tasks, generally used to undertake battlefield intelligence gathering and situational awareness tasks in air campaigns or joint operations of the three services.
From the perspective of its main task module performance, the main detection module of the e-8c is the an/apy-3 monitoring and target indication radar located under the fuselage head, which is an advanced x-band active phased array radar with synthetic aperture imaging and dynamic object detection (sar+gmti) functions. The radar can track ground targets 300 kilometers away, and can even detect the movement of heavy wheeled vehicles at a distance of more than 200 kilometers, the maximum situational awareness is said to reach about 250,000 square kilometers, with strategic campaign-level battlefield surveillance functions, it is one of the models that have been active in the South China Sea in recent times.
P-8a maritime patrol aircraft
In addition, this time the U.S. Naval Aviation also dispatched 2 p-8a type maritime patrol aircraft, but the specific location of these two aircraft is not clear, although the P-8a is expensive as an "anti-submarine aircraft", it does install a complete set of submarine search and submarine attack equipment, such as an/asq-508 advanced integrated magnetic anomaly detector, an/alq-240(v)1 integrated radio frequency countermeasure system, and dozens of US standard A class sonar buoys.
However, the task that the P-8a can undertake is far from being an "anti-submarine" as simple, it is equipped with an AN/APY-10 type maritime surveillance and target indication radar, also has SAR and in-sar modes, and the range is said to be comparable to the surveillance radar installed on the E-8C. Therefore, in essence, in addition to anti-submarine, the P-8A can also be used as a battlefield surveillance aircraft, in fact, in the U.S. Navy's "AirSea Battle" operational assumptions, the tactical mission and tactical status given to the P-8A aircraft is quite important.
EP-3E electronic reconnaissance aircraft
The last aircraft is "very familiar to the Chinese people", the perpetrator of the collision incident in the South China Sea, the infamous EP-3e electronic reconnaissance aircraft, due to the extremely high density level and frequent upgrades of this type of aircraft, we can rarely get a glimpse of the real performance of this type of aircraft. It is only known that before the 2001 South China Sea collision, the aircraft underwent a series of upgrades, in addition to updating the central computer, CPU and Navy Link-11 data link antenna and processing terminal, focusing on updating the electromagnetic signal collection and signal processing system.
It is said that this type of electronic reconnaissance plane can capture and find the signals of land-based radars, ground conduction systems fire control radars, and fighter fire control radars that are scattered hundreds of kilometers away, so as to improve the database of electronic signal characteristics of the US military and formulate targeted countermeasures. However, the specific performance of this type of aircraft is still unknown.
The task is reasonable
Having clarified the characteristics and specific performance of the WC-135W, E-8C, P-8a and EP-3E aircraft, we can more easily judge the reconnaissance purpose of the US military's large-scale entry into the South China Sea and its arrival in the nearly Chinese mainland from the north of the Dongsha Islands, and the specific tactical functions undertaken by each aircraft in this mission:
Ivan the Great believes that the US military's outburst group this time includes a battlefield surveillance detachment composed of e-8c and p-8a, an anti-submarine detachment carried out by p-8a, and an electronic reconnaissance detachment under the responsibility of ep-3e:
Among them, the E-8C and P-8a are responsible for monitoring the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland and even the depth of the campaign using synthetic aperture radar, possibly by the E-8C to carry out wide-area search surveillance, while the P-8a performs focused reconnaissance of some of the calibrated targets;
Ep-3e is responsible for important elint (electronic intelligence) functions, responsible for receiving electronic intelligence information scattered from the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland, reversing the movement of our army in the coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian, and clarifying the operation rules and operational posture of our army;
At the same time, the P-8a also takes into account the implementation of the ocean anti-submarine task, after all, the Dongsha Islands, the bashi strait line, has always been the key sea passage for all parties to implement underwater dark warfare, the two p-8a in the case of carrying hundreds of sonar buoys, can form four or so 150 nautical miles long anti-submarine reference line, enough to effectively track and monitor the bashi strait area, monitor the movement of underwater warfare troops of other countries.
On May 18, 2017, two Su-30 fighter jets of the Chinese Air Force intercepted a WC-135W nuclear reconnaissance aircraft over the East China Sea. According to CNN, the two Chinese fighters were about 150 feet (about 46 meters) away from the US reconnaissance plane, and one of the fighters made a barrel rolling in front of the US military plane. (Source: Station Cool - Old Lee)
In particular, it is worth mentioning that the TACTICAL PURPOSE OF THE US MILITARY'S USE OF WC-135W AIRCRAFT, ACCORDING TO PUBLIC INFORMATION, THE US MILITARY CLAIMS THAT WC-135W MAINLY DETECTS NUCLEAR EXPLOSION DUST IN THE ATMOSPHERE, AND JUDGES THE NATURE AND EQUIVALENT OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSION THROUGH RADIOACTIVE FLOATING DUST. However, judging from the situation in the South China Sea, no country dares to conduct nuclear tests in the South China Sea, and WC-135W has not heard that in addition to radioactive sampling, it has also installed other reconnaissance equipment, so it is somewhat unreasonable for it to run to the South China Sea.
Not long ago, the US Navy's "Connecticut" Seawolf-class attack nuclear submarine that collided in the South China Sea
Many readers may feel that this is the aftermath of the accident of the US military's second "Connecticut" nuclear submarine last month, and the wc-135w came to test whether the ship had a nuclear leakage accident, but considering that this has been more than a month, the direction of operation of the US military is not the accident area of the last "Connecticut", so Ivan the Great feels that this statement is not substantiated.
To let Ivan the Great, do not rule out wc-135w reconnaissance aircraft in addition to detecting nuclear explosions, it can also detect traces of nuclear warhead deployment, you can detect air dust, find out whether there are nuclear weapons in a certain area, of course, this possibility from a technical point of view, it is indeed a bit mysterious, but if this is indeed the case, we must point out that the US military dispatch WC-135W thing is a bit serious.
The goal is clear
Since it is clear that these detachments dispatched by the US military are specifically responsible for the tactical tasks, the intention of the US military to enter the South China Sea this time is self-evident, and Ivan the Great believes that from a tactical point of view, this can be regarded as a countermeasure of the US military's recent operations in the waters near the Dongsha Islands.
PLA military plane goes to northern Taiwan (Source: Unification Staff Supervision Department)
After all, judging from the activities of Chinese the navy and air force of the people's liberation army on the eastern coast in recent days, according to the "Global Times," our army's activities in the southwest and northwest of Taiwan's main island are equally frequent, and even on the day when the US military launched a large-scale move into the South China Sea, our army also dispatched some main fighter models and campaign support aircraft to go out of Taiwan's main island, and the farthest forward distance even went around to the east of Taiwan's main island. Therefore, since our army is "making a fuss" and carrying out activities on the north and south flanks of The main island of Taiwan, it is not difficult to understand that the US military is not willing to be lonely and chases after the taste, and has sent some planes "tit-for-tat" to see what the Chinese navy and air force are doing.
PLA military planes travel to southern Taiwan (Source: Taiwanese troops)
From the perspective of the campaign, Ivan the Great believes that the US military may really "smell" something, after all, near the end of the year, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is unusually tense, and the parties concerned are frequently playing cards recently, especially on our side, although there may indeed be nothing, just the same political confrontation as usual, but in the past few days, even Ivan the Great has received private messages one after another, asking whether to reserve some compressed dry food, canned food and so on at home (to Ivan the Great, in addition to hoarding canned meat, The most important thing is to stock up on drinking water).
This means that the tense situation around the Taiwan Strait in this round has already shown signs of "shock spillover," and even the people at home feel that the situation is not right, then the United States will naturally feel even more "not quite right." Since this is the case, then send out a part of the reconnaissance plane to engage in "approach reconnaissance, try to figure out the deployment of our troops on the southeast coast, get a glimpse of our army's real strategic intentions, and do a preset battlefield construction, and continue to collect relevant electronic and radar reconnaissance intelligence information of our army." Of course, this is also the basic exercise of the US military.
The threat is great
In short, let's leave aside for the time being what the tactical tasks of the US military's large aircraft group and the campaign in the South China Sea are, and don't care what it means that the US military has dispatched so many models, especially even the WC-135W, a highly sensitive model, can be pulled out. Ivan the Great believes that simply looking at the US military's "entry into the South China Sea" itself should arouse our vigilance.
The direction of action of the US military is the Dongsha Islands and south of the main island of Taiwan, and the main preset battlefield of our army, so it should arouse our great concern. After all, as one of the most unpredictable forces at critical moments, but one that may have the greatest impact on the balance of the war, the actions of the US military are directly related to our success or failure, and even to the fate of all people.