The price increase of mass consumer goods has gradually become one of the main lines of the market in recent days.
GEM Bucking the Trend //
On Tuesday (November 2), A-shares opened low and went low, and the Shanghai Composite Index once lost 3500 points intraday to create a new low of adjustment, closing at 3505.63 points, down 1.10%; the Shenzhen Composite Index reported 14377.27 points, down 0.69%; the ChiNext index bucked the trend, closing at 3339.6 points, up 0.23%. The turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, breaking through the trillion yuan for the eighth consecutive trading day.
Consumer stocks rotate, food stocks are strong throughout the day //
On the disk, consumer stocks have rotated, and the military, food, and semiconductor sectors have strengthened.
Food stocks performed strongly throughout the day, the index as a whole rose 2.58%, Ganhua Science and Industry, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Jinggrain Holdings, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Sanquan Food, Hengshun Vinegar Industry, Keming Food and other 7 shares rose and stopped, in addition, Anjing Food, Angel Yeast, Daodaoquan and so on have followed suit, up more than 7%.
Three whole food volume up and down, after-hours Dragon and Tiger list data show that the shenzhen stock connect special seat funds net purchase of 12.3643 million yuan, institutional funds net purchase of 11.34 million yuan, the total net purchase of the two 23.7 million yuan.
Latest MoFCOM Response: Supply Is Fully Guaranteed //
The Ministry of Commerce recently issued the "Notice on Ensuring the Supply and Price Stability of vegetables and Other Daily Necessities in the Market this winter and next spring", which mentions that "families are encouraged to store a certain amount of daily necessities according to their needs to meet the needs of daily life and emergencies", a sentence that has aroused the attention of the public, and there are also some over-interpretations.
On November 2, the head of the Department of Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce responded to this in an interview. Zhu Xiaoliang, director of the Department of Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, said that from the current situation, the supply of daily necessities in various places is sufficient, and the supply should be fully guaranteed. The Ministry of Commerce issued a special notice to urge all localities to strictly implement the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system, guide commercial and trade circulation enterprises to strengthen the organization of supply sources, smooth the connection between production and marketing, purchase vegetables in advance, and sign vegetable supply agreements with bases.
A number of food leading officials announced price increases //
Affected by the rise in raw materials and other factors, a number of food companies have recently announced price adjustments, and the market expects that there will be enterprises or follow the price increase in the future.
After hours on November 2, Hengshun Vinegar Industry announced that in view of the sharp increase in the cost of raw and auxiliary materials, transportation and other costs, in order to better provide consumers with high-quality products and services and promote the sustainable development of the market, the company decided through research and decision, from November 20, 2021, the price adjustment of some products will be adjusted, with an adjustment range of 5%-15%. Hengshun vinegar industry rose strongly on the day.
On the evening of the same day, Haixin Food also issued an announcement that the promotional policy for some quick-frozen surimi products, quick-frozen dishes and quick-frozen rice noodle products was reduced or the distribution price was raised, ranging from 3% to 10%, and the new price was implemented according to the price adjustment notice of each product from November 3. The company's stock price rose as high as nearly 5% in the intraday and closed up 3.02% at 5.8 yuan.
In addition to the above two, in the mass consumer goods industry, a number of companies have issued product price increase announcements in the fourth quarter.
On November 2, Yasui Foods, the first share of hot pot balls, rose 8.13% to 197.2 yuan.
On the evening of November 1, Anjing Food issued an announcement that in view of the continuous rise in the costs of raw materials, labor, transportation, energy, etc., in order to better provide dealers and consumers with high-quality products and services, and promote the sustainable development of the market and the industry, after the company's research and decision, the promotion policy of some quick-frozen surimi products, quick-frozen dishes and quick-frozen rice noodle products was reduced or the distribution price was raised, and the price adjustment range was 3%-10%, and the new price was implemented according to the price adjustment notice of each product from November 1, 2021.
On October 12, Haitian Flavor Industry announced that the ex-factory price of some products such as soy sauce, oyster sauce and sauce will be adjusted, ranging from 3% to 7%, which will be implemented on October 25, 2021.
On October 22, Qiaqia Food announced that the ex-factory price adjustment of sunflower seed series products and pumpkin seeds and small and fragrant watermelon seed products was carried out, and the price increase range of each category ranged from 8% to 18%, which was implemented on October 22, 2021.
On October 28, Zhongshun Jierou issued a price adjustment notice letter, proposing to adjust the price of Zhongshun Jierou's products from January 1, 2022, and the specific adjustment products and prices will be subject to the official documents recently delivered by the company's responsible business.
On October 29, Jinhe Industry said on the interactive platform that the company's sweetener products have risen in cost due to the rapid rise in the price of bulk chemical raw materials, coupled with the large increase in downstream demand, the company's sweetener product capacity load has gradually filled. The company has recently raised the sales price of food additive products such as sweeteners and spices according to market conditions, which has a certain effect on the company's performance.
Is the worst time for consumption over? //
Entering the fourth quarter, the institution's attention to the consumer sector has increased significantly.
Zhan Jia, the proposed fund manager of Everbright Prudential Life Hybrid, said that consumption is moving from a very difficult period to a window period of marginal improvement, because whether it is the lack of cost passivation of consumer goods or the problem of high inventory, it is now improving.
Dongxing Securities pointed out that from the perspective of the three quarterly reports, dairy products, condiments, and snack foods were affected by the rise in upstream costs, and the gross profit margin of meat products generally declined month-on-month; the gross profit margin of meat products recovered, mainly due to the downward cost brought about by the decline in pork prices; and the overall gross profit margin of liquor was stable. Affected by the rise of upstream raw materials, some mainstream food companies have recently adjusted the price of commodities, such as the previous Haitian flavor industry, Qiaqia food have raised product prices, next year's upstream raw material prices will be further transmitted to the downstream, more enterprises have the expectation of price increases, enterprises with the ability to transmit prices to the downstream will benefit more, pay attention to next year's price increases.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the third quarter of the public products company ushered in the inflection point of operation, the follow-up recovery effect is obvious, the core recommendation: Qianhe Flavor Industry, Yili Shares, Qiaqia Food, Richen Shares, Absolute Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, and pay attention to the business reversal of Anjing Food, Tianwei Food, Zhongju High-tech, Yanjin Shop and other companies.
Ping An Securities said that the leading companies as a price benchmark to take the lead in raising prices, the rest of the competitors will follow up the price increase in 3-6 months; the price increase effect will be reflected in about 1 year, manifested as an increase in net profit margin, because the peak of raw material price increases will thicken corporate profits; price increases will promote stock prices to a certain extent, but if the price increase effect continues, it will bring about a more substantial increase in enterprises.
Guotai Junan Securities said that recently, Haitian and other leading companies have raised prices, and industry price increases are expected to further heat up to form a catalyst. Through historical review, it can be found that in the face of rising costs, the mass product leader has a stronger ability than small and medium-sized enterprises to digest cost pressure through direct price increases, structural upgrades, etc., promote the optimization of the competitive landscape, and achieve profit margin improvement and share increase. In the medium term, if the upstream cost falls in the future and the downstream sales begin to boost, the profit elasticity of the price-raising enterprises will be more obviously reflected. Focus on the targets of benefits related to the expected price increase of mass products.
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