"The worst time for consumption has passed", food and home appliances bottomed out, and Zhan Jia, fund manager of Everbright Prudential, is optimistic about the four directions of "innovative life"

Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, reporter Han Li) news, into the fourth quarter, public offering institutions to pay attention to the consumer sector has increased significantly. "The worst time for consumption is over." Zhan Jia, the proposed fund manager of Everbright Prudential Life Hybrid, said that consumption is moving from a very difficult period to a window period of marginal improvement, because whether it is the lack of cost passivation of consumer goods or the problem of high inventory, it is now improving.

In terms of specific investment opportunities, Zhan Jia believes that the long-term steady growth trend of core enterprises in major sectors such as consumption, medicine, science and technology, and new energy has not changed, and the consumer service industry based on domestic demand, as well as the manufacturing and service industries that have gained advantages in export competition, are expected to continue to have a good growth momentum.

"Food and appliances are starting to bottom out"

Every fund manager has his or her own stock selection methodology. In Zhan Jia's view, his methodology can be summarized as "three highs and one low" and "big and small rotation".

"What kind of enterprise is 'three highs and one low'? First of all, it must have a higher growth space, and then a higher competitive barrier and a higher capital efficiency, all three can show that the enterprise has a long-term and stable development foundation. All three are indispensable, and this is called the three highs. Zhan Jia explained. If it is low, the volatility of the company's operating performance is relatively low, and the stock price fluctuation will naturally be relatively low. ”

How many A-shares are there in the A-shares of companies that meet the above description? Zhan Jia revealed that although there are as many as 4,000 stocks in A-shares, only more than 100 companies may meet the above conditions, and Zhan Jia's stock pool is also based on these more than 100 companies.

Specifically, when it comes to allocation, how to further find the best investment opportunities in more than 100 enterprises? Zhan Jia summed up his method as "big and small rotation".

The so-called "big wheel", that is, eating watermelon in summer and winter bamboo shoots in winter. He uses GDP growth expectations and inflation expectations as vertical and horizontal axes, and divides four quadrants to judge the wind direction of the global economic cycle. "Small rotation" is between companies, between subdivisions of industries, in each quarter as a unit, the degree of prosperity changes, make some adjustments.

"Equity assets are actually classified, such as steel, nonferrous metals, coal, these are cyclical assets, consumption or with fixed income attributes are defensive assets, and so on." Zhan Jia explained: "Macro asset allocation is to judge whether certain asset portfolios are in line with the current macro environment through marginal changes in the macro economy. ”

Zhan Jia continued to give examples: "For example, the current situation, global inflation expectations are strong, if high inflation superimposed on high GDP growth expectations, this time is more suitable for the allocation of commodities, just like the market situation in the middle of this year." Even for real estate, Zhan Jia believes that it is also an offensive asset: "Our country's real estate policy has restrictions, but in fact, we look at the real estate in the United States and Europe, which has risen a lot this year." ”

Conversely, under the macroeconomic assumption of high inflation and low growth expectations, Zhan Jia is more optimistic about consumption and necessities.

Since the beginning of this year, the average of the primary/optional consumer components of the CSI First-level Style Classification is +2.92% and +16.07%, respectively, while raw materials, public utilities first-class raw materials, etc. have risen by +30.58%, +36.70% and +45.69% respectively.

In this regard, Zhan Jia believes that the worst time for consumption has passed, last year's early consumption caused by the epidemic at home is relatively common, the performance base is relatively high, but consumption is moving from a very difficult period to a marginal improvement window period, because whether it is the cost of consumer goods is insufficient, or the problem of high inventory, it has now improved, especially the food and home appliance sectors have begun to bottom out.

Focus on innovative living concepts

For the concept that is most concerned about at present, Zhan Jia provides a relatively rare perspective, that is, the "innovative life concept".

"Today, China's per capita disposable income has reached the global middle-income level, and in general, when the median reaches the line, residents will change from producers to consumers." Zhan Jia said. "The number of middle-income people is growing at a super-linear rate, which triggers the demand side to identify with the concept of innovative life, and some single products with innovative consumer experiences tend to get explosive growth at this time, such as sweeping robots, laser TVs, and traditional induction cookers are replaced by multi-functional pots, multi-functional pots are iterated by blenders, soy milk machines are iterated by wall-breaking machines, wall-breaking machines are iterated by carry-on cups, and so on."

From the supply side, Zhan Jia believes that domestic enterprises that provide "innovative life concepts" have become mature. "The global To C brand Middle East Zhi brand reputation is very good, in fact, Toshiba black electricity is Hisense, white electricity is beautiful, when our company has a good brand, excellent sales channels, including the cost capabilities of China's manufacturing industry, these capabilities are superimposed together, can already be for innovative life concepts for large-scale empowerment."

In addition, from the development path, Zhan Jia said that the case of the home appliance industry can actually be deduced from other industries: "For example, pharmaceutical research and development, such as the current intelligent terminal, whether it is a whole machine or a chip, in fact, more and more enterprises have moved from Chinese manufacturing to Chinese creation." With brands and channels and the ability to innovate, the dividends of enterprise development will gradually reflect on revenue, performance and even market value.

As for the specific tracks of concern, Zhan Jia mentioned four aspects: innovative consumption, innovative medical care, innovative technology and low-carbon life.

For example, he said: "The installation rate of energy storage equipment in California is relatively high, because the local electricity price is market-oriented, residents can transmit electricity back to the grid when the electricity price is high, and when the electricity price is low, they will use and store electricity for themselves." This set of equipment is very common in Europe and the United States, and residents can use it to obtain considerable yields.

"These directions are already in place both in terms of awareness and spending power, and companies in the relevant tracks have gained a global leading position." Zhan Jia said.