Feng Shui takes turns, this year to the farmhouse! Since October, the enthusiasm of the agricultural product market has been high, the market price has been rising, first the price of vegetables detonated the market, "vegetables are more expensive than meat" on the hot search, vegetable farmers turned around and benefited a lot. Subsequently, the egg market opened all the way, breaking 5 to 6 to usher in the peak, and chicken farmers who had been in the loss line for a long time could finally breathe a sigh of relief.
Follow-up with the fermentation of price rises, the front foot is still a sharp drop in the pig market, in the weather cooling, consumption warming, and vegetable prices rose sharply under the help of God, pig prices also ushered in a strong rebound, in just over half a month, pig prices once rose by nearly 60%, and also led to beef, mutton and other meat market prices of upward fluctuations.
I thought that grain prices would be perfect to miss this price increase, because the grain market belongs to commodities, the price trend has been relatively stable, basically like vegetables, eggs and other FMCG products seasonal rebound, for the grain rise is not much help. Unexpectedly, since the end of October, the corn market, which has been weak, has suddenly ushered in a higher market.
The market rebound for many consecutive days has also made the northern corn usher in a wave of no small fluctuations. This is not, with the gradual rise of the market corn price, Shandong deep processing quotation has approached the 3,000 yuan mark. There are signs of a growing market, but what's going on?
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="4" > is rising! A single day rose 100 yuan</h1>
The time came to November, the price of live pigs rose to an end, and the price of vegetables also increased with the measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply in various places, and the market vegetable prices were gradually falling. However, this agricultural products market is like a relay race, this side has just fallen, and there has been a rise. According to the data, due to the impact of deep processing and replenishment and warehouse construction, the increase in the purchase of superior grain by superimposed feed enterprises, the price of corn began to rebound strongly at the end of the month, which led to the first wave of market surge since the listing of new grain corn.
Up to now, the domestic corn price is still rising, and the market rise is also expanding. According to the data of market feedback, there are 23 grain enterprises in the market that adjust the purchase price of corn, and the look is red, and the single-day increase generally reaches 20 to 30 yuan / ton, and the single-day increase in local areas even reaches 100 yuan / ton. Among them, Shandong deep processing has risen across the board, and the quotation of many grain enterprises has exceeded 2900 yuan per ton, such as the latest quotation of Binzhou Ronghai is 2930 yuan per ton, Jining Xilai, Weifang Yingxuan quotation is 2900 yuan / ton, and Shandong grain prices are gradually approaching the 3000 yuan mark.
Not only Shandong corn prices rose sharply, North China, Northeast corn prices are also "rampage", like a wild horse that has lost its reins, it wants to rise non-stop, among them, Henan Mengzhou Huaxing rose 30 yuan / ton in a single day, grain enterprises quoted 2780 yuan / ton, Mengzhou Houyuan Company raised 20 yuan / ton, grain enterprises quoted 2750 yuan / ton, Hebei Guangyu starch per ton raised 20 yuan, grain enterprises quoted 2730 yuan / ton, and the most concerned is that Shaanxi Luzhou single-day per ton actually rose by 100 yuan, The average price of corn directly rose to 2540 yuan / ton, and it seems that the supply of corn is really tight.
In the northeast region, with the sharp rise in the price of corn in North China, the northeast market, which has always been sluggish, has also ushered in a slight increase in corn, among them, Heilongjiang Qinggang Longfeng raised 20 yuan / ton, grain enterprises quoted 2270 yuan / ton, Jilin COFCO Highway Ridge raised 20 yuan per ton, grain enterprises quoted 2380 yuan / ton, Boda Biochemical increased by 20 yuan / ton, corn rose to 2430 yuan / ton, Liaoning Yihai Kerry raised 20 yuan per ton, corn purchase price maintained at 2480 yuan / ton.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" Data-track="26" What is the reason why corn is red >? </h1>
As for the reasons for the current collective rise in corn prices, at present, it is mainly caused by the short-term tight market supply. According to the vehicle information of the deep processing feedback, it can be seen that the vehicles of Shandong deep processing enterprises to the factory are still in a continuous decline, and the current deep processing to the factory vehicles has been reduced from 1087 to 453 vehicles on Friday, and the supply of corn has almost halved, while the deep processing enterprises have not been active in increasing the stockpiling of goods due to the high price of grain in the early stage, and the grain inventory is not much, in order to ensure market supply, only continue to raise the price of grain.
The sharp decline in vehicles from deep processing to the factory can also be seen that the current supply of corn market has begun to intensify. On the one hand, due to the impact of rising energy and oil prices, the cost of corn transportation has risen sharply, and traders are not active in grain production, especially for traders in the northeast production areas, the rise in freight rates is not friendly. Coupled with the current increase in rain and snow in the northeast, it will also cause certain cost pressure for corn to exit the customs. The tight supply of corn in the short term has led to the overall upward trend of corn prices in the market.
On the other hand, it has entered November, the corn in Kannai has been basically harvested and put into storage, and the ones that should be sold have been sold almost completely, and most of the remaining farmers are in a wait-and-see state. This year, affected by the rising cost of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, coupled with the disaster of grain rainfall this year, farmers' sentiment towards the rise in corn prices is also gradually increasing. The increase in price resistance to sales has contributed to a further rebound in corn prices.
Of course, the most important thing is the supply and demand of the market. As November approaches, the demand for grain companies to stock up is also rising significantly. In the early stage, corn prices fell, and grain units have been expecting a sharp decline in grain prices, but until the end of the concentrated listing of corn in North China, corn prices have not dropped much. At present, the price of corn is gradually clear, out of concern about the rise in corn prices in the future. Feed enterprises, deep processing enterprises have begun to read the bottom of the grain harvest. Taking feed enterprises as an example, in order to reduce costs in the early stage, they have been increasing the procurement of old grain wheat and corn in stocks. But now there is no time to wait, and the purchase of new grain corn is also further increasing, contributing to the continuous rise in corn prices.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="30" > will it rise next? </h1>
Regarding the next corn price trend, I still adhere to the previous view, and the overall trend is still mainly up. Mainly from three aspects:
1. Grassroots farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is not high. One is the rise in the cost of planting land, an overall price of higher, in contrast, the income from planting land has declined, considering that the current new grain corn in the northeast has not been listed in a large area, the composition of corn for sale in the later period will gradually increase.
2, the demand for corn market increases, the rise in energy and chemical prices will also drive the ethanol fuel market rise. Corn is the main ingredient in ethanol alcohol processing, and the increase in subsequent orders is conducive to increasing the demand for corn in the market. In addition, the demand for feed corn will further increase, there are data show that this round of pig cycle is likely to continue to the first half of next year, with the inertia growth of pig production capacity, the number of pigs in the next few months is expected to break through the new high, feed corn demand will also increase again, for the market to form a positive support.
4. The most important thing is that there is a gap in the current corn supply, and with the increase in the amount of corn used in the market and the increase in the number of farmers who resist prices and sell, the gap in the supply of corn in the market will gradually increase. Some institutions predict that the corn supply gap in 2021-2022 will exceed 20 million tons. And such a large number of gaps can only be filled through imports, but far from the water can not quench the near thirst, now imports, the fastest will be a few months later to arrive, which is equivalent to lengthening the upward cycle of corn prices.
Therefore, at this stage, the rise in corn prices may have just begun, according to the market supply and demand port, there is still a large room for corn prices to rise in the future, and even it is not impossible to return to the high level at the beginning of the year. But can the subsequent price rise sharply? It also depends on the state's determination to regulate and control, as well as the grain production situation of grass-roots peasant households and the acceptance of the market. What do you think about that? Welcome to leave a message to discuss.