Patrick Williams dislocated his left wrist in Thursday's 104-103 loss to the New York Knicks and is expected to miss the second-year striker for the remainder of the 2021-22 regular season, S8Y8.CN reported.
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Williams' injury was a blow to Chicago, which started 4-0 before losing a point to New York. Williams, the Bulls' No. 4 pick in last year's draft, missed all five of his training camps for most of his training camp after recovering from an ankle sprain and was the Bulls' main defensive finisher in their starting five games — the average defender.
As part of a trade-in deal in August, Chicago traded key substitute Sedius Young to add Demar DeRozan, while the loss of Williams only exacerbated the situation, with the depth of Chicago's forwards worrying. How will the Bulls replace Williams' defensive all-around, and to what extent will his absence affect their quest to return to the playoffs after four years in the lotto zone? Let's take a look.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="4" > Williams' role and substitution</h1>
A glance at Williams' averages doesn't mean Chicago will miss him. Williams averaged 6.6 points and 2.2 rebounds per game, below his all 71 games he started as a rookie (9.2 PPG and 4.6 RPG). In a team with three players who averaged at least 20 points per game last season (DeRozan, Zach Raven and Nikola Vucevic), Williams is content to play a small role on the offensive end. His usage rate is 10%, down from 14% as a rookie, giving him the bottom 10 of players with an average of at least 20 minutes.
To assess Williams' importance to the Bulls, it's best to look at the different usage rates — the use of the players he defends. According to the Second Spectrum track, Williams' average use of half-court defensive alignments was 24 percent, weighted by head-to-head numbers, the highest of any Chicago player (Lonzo Ball came second with 21 percent).
In part, it's a counterpoint because the Bulls haven't yet met a high-scoring outside player who could be transferred to Ball. Still, Williams' defensive versatility allowed Chicago coach Billidonovan to take on the responsibility of defending DeRozan and LaVine's high-scoring players.
Chances are, this won't change with Williams' injury. He may have played primarily as bench guard Javent Green, another versatile defender who started three games Williams missed in preseason, when the Bulls took a 4-0 lead.
On the offensive end, replacing Williams with Green could be more problematic. While Williams haven't tried enough three-pointers (6 times in 125 minutes so far this season) to keep defenders close, he's shown the ability to knock them down if he has enough time. As a rookie, Williams shoots 39 percent from three-point range. By comparison, Green's career three-point shooting percentage is 32 percent. Compared to Williams, opponents are more willing to let him dare to shoot three points.
Later in the game, Donovan is likely to continue defending Alex Caruso alongside Chicago's four other starting players. After the Bulls' starting five, Caruso's lineup in place of Williams has seen the second most playing time (31 minutes, according to NBA advanced statistics) — their combined playing time in the fourth quarter is less than a minute.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="11" > the depth of the bench is worrying</h1>
Moving Green to the starting five also means taking him off chicago's bench. He is already in seventh place for playing time behind the Starting Points and Caruso on the Bulls. As such, Donovan has been using striker Aliz Johnson (who has a partially guaranteed contract) and Ayo Dosem, who is a second-round pick for 2021, as part of the reserve team, falling rapidly after Caruso, Green and Troy Brown Jr.
In the short term, Donovan will have to look for another frontcourt substitute he trusts. That could be 6-foot-10 center Tony Bradley, who has been a capable bench player in the past and will make Chicago's second team bigger. After Green signed in early to replace Williams, Bradley made a useful cameo in the second half of Thursday's game.
Another option is Derek Jones Jr., who went from starting 43 games for the Portland Trail Blazers last season to being a forgotten forward for the Bulls. Jones played two minutes in the first five games of the season. His DNP-CD highlighted Chicago's decision to secure Jones and future first-round draft picks from the Trail Blazers in an August deal, sending forward Laurie Markkanen to the Cleveland Cavaliers, rather than simply keeping forward/center Larry Nance Jr., who went to Portland.
If Jones can't find a foothold in the Bulls' rotation, his $9.7 million salary on an expiring contract could make him an attractive deal candidate. For example, the Houston Rockets' DJs Augustine and Danuel House JR, who sent Jones and protected Matt Thomas (whose salary was not guaranteed). Would give Chicago another forward who played bigger than he was at House without much of an impact on any team's salary cap situation. (Augustine is only guaranteed for $333,333 in his 2022-23 salary, while the other three players are in the final season of their contracts.) ）
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="18" > Williams has two potential to contribute</h1>
At this stage of his career, it's unclear whether Williams is much better than Green, so there's no reason for his injury to put Chicago's quest for a playoff spot in vain. Still, the Bulls have lost the clearest path to being a legitimate contender this season, which has allowed Williams — one of the five most attractive players I've made this season — develop into a two-way contributor.
If Williams can be a goal scorer dangerous enough to force the opposing defender to stay by his side, the team's stars will have more offensive space. Williams becoming a defensive force is a way to help make up for the Bulls' shortcomings on the other end of the court.
Losing Williams also puts more pressure on Chicago to stay healthy. The Bulls may have enough depth to make up for the loss of starters, especially if they can be promoted to their bench by the trade deadline. However, if the extra Chicago players miss out on a long period of time, there is less room for error. So Williams' injury has undoubtedly complicated things for the Bulls.