The second season of the #Sannong High Quality Creation Contest entered November, and it was when oranges, yellow, oranges, sugar oranges, navel oranges, limes and other citrus were ripe and listed. How will the citrus price market develop this year? Should the growers fall into the bag for safety or sell at a high price?
Judging from the listing of extra-early ripening and early ripening oranges some time ago, this year's land acquisition price has increased significantly compared with last year. For example, the purchase price of Shimen Honey Orange last year was between 0.6 and 2.0 yuan / kg, and the average purchase price was about 1.2 yuan / kg; while this year's purchase price was between 1 and 3.6 yuan / kg, and the average purchase price was about 2.5 yuan / kg; the price doubled. The price has increased, the income of the growers has increased, and of course they are very happy. But a few joys and a few sorrows, Fujian grapefruit origin white grapefruit purchase price of 1.2 yuan / kg, red grapefruit 1.6 yuan / kg, such a price is almost the cost price, fruit farmers have no money to earn.
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So how will the citrus market develop in the next few months? I think that in general, the price should be stable and rising, but the differences between different varieties are very large. As we all know, China's citrus industry is developing rapidly, the current citrus planting area exceeds 40 million mu, the output exceeds 50 million tons, are the world's first, and the per capita citrus occupancy exceeds 35 kg. So overall, citrus is not in short supply, but in oversupply. However, in recent years, the development of citrus has also encountered many problems. First, the spread trend of huanglong disease is becoming more and more serious, at present, there are nearly 10 million mu of citrus orchards infected with huanglong disease in the country, and once infected with huanglong disease, the garden will be destroyed in about five years, which means that on average, 2 million mu of citrus orchards will be destroyed every year. Second, the new citrus area will slow down, because the implementation of the policy of returning forests to farmland will become the biggest constraint on the new orchards of citrus. In addition, in recent years, the efficiency of some citrus varieties is too poor, such as Nanfeng mandarin orange, lime, grapefruit, ordinary medium and late ripening oranges, etc. The purchase price is even lower than the cost price, making these fruit farmers actively abandon the garden or destroy the garden. Therefore, the cultivation area of citrus has a limited growth. Third, climate change is unpredictable, which is extremely unfavorable to citrus production and seriously affects the yield and quality of citrus. Several frost damage at the end of last year caused serious damage to many citrus producing areas, especially late-ripening oranges and citrus. In particular, many of the late-ripening citrus planted in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and other places have suffered overall garden destruction. Coupled with too much rain in the first half of this year and the autumn drought in the second half of the year, the production of citrus this year will definitely decline. Therefore, it is expected that the price of citrus this year should be better than last year, especially the price of navel oranges and oranges should be greatly improved compared with last year.
Since citrus prices are expected to rise steadily this year, should growers be reluctant to sell them? I think it is not necessary, or it is better to drop the bag for safety. First, this year's citrus polarization is serious, even if it is the same variety of the same origin, the price difference between high-quality fruits and secondary fruits can reach more than five times, and the supply of high-quality fruits is in short supply, and the secondary fruits are not pretty. Unless your citrus is a good variety of high-quality fruit, it is really not recommended to cover the fruit and sell it, so as not to reduce the price in the later stage and affect the economic benefits. Second, the impact of the epidemic is far-reaching and unpredictable. The pandemic has hit many industries and affected the incomes of most people, especially the middle class, who are the main force in citrus consumption. The repeated local occurrence of the epidemic will naturally affect the sales and consumption of citrus, the key is that it is impossible to predict the epidemic, so it is recommended that the growers sell the citrus as soon as possible, and the money will naturally be assured in the pocket.
Of course, whether to sell citrus in time or not, or need to be the fruit farmers themselves, combined with the actual situation to make decisions. Welcome "Professor Deng on Agriculture" Micro-Letter-Public-Public-Public-To-Learn More Agricultural Techniques.