Yesterday's gold short-term shock to the upside, giving back on Friday's decline, Asia and Europe and the United States showed a slight upward trend, the highest test of $1796 / ounce. The final close was at $1793/oz. Trading on 1789 to participate in short selling in 1795 out of the loss, yesterday also participated in the CANADIAN DOLLAR/JPY short order, is still in the entry position. Eur/NZD is long, and this morning's rise is very good. It is a pity that the precise stop loss, sweep loss of the day.
Today to see yesterday's article video mentioned in the gold four-hour level of the rising signal has been repaired, today is a better short opportunity. Focus on several news sources in the market, starting with the Fed's acceptance of $1.359 trillion in fixed-rate reverse repos. This is another record-breaking amount. Then the Fed's economic action can clearly tell everyone that this is tightening monetary policy.
In an overnight reverse repurchase, the larger the amount of the repurchase, the greater the strength with which the Fed recovers cash liquidity from the market. This can be compared to 2015 to 2016, when the maximum amount of overnight reverse repurchases was above $500 billion. It's 1.3 trillion now, so I don't question the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in comparison. So for the current environment, I am still firmly bearish on gold.
But there is a saying that the gold price is almost half a month, and the whole 10 trading days are oscillating. I am also helpless, and the interest rate decision near November 4 is only the last two days left, which can basically be said to be the final showdown. Technically speaking, the market rebounded yesterday to rise the signal, today is the rebound in place, the signal is over. At present, there is a clear downward signal, so the bearish gold is currently in line with the technical side.
Maybe this point of view is annoying to myself, I short gold is experienced too many times in a row of profit taking, I am about to lose patience, but as the leader of the bears, I must carry this banner. In addition, we saw that the market released manufacturing data yesterday, which is a year-on-year decline. As long as the manufacturing PMI data is higher than 50, it means that the manufacturing industry is expanding. But this year, the manufacturing industry has basically remained above 60, with an average of around 60.5. Then yesterday's manufacturing data was released at 58.4, well below the average.
So that means that the manufacturing recovery is slowing down, so why? Obviously, it is inseparable from the rise in raw material prices. The second is the insufficient supply of raw materials. As a result, the development of the manufacturing industry has slowed down. Then this also means that the Fed is faced with the fact that raw material prices are rising. So the solution to the problem is to reduce debt purchases, suppress inflation, and stabilize prices.
The second is the US Treasury Secretary, former Fed Chairman Yellen proposed that the US economy is not overheated, and that higher inflation is only temporary. In its emphasis on inflation is temporary. Then fully explain the future policy trends of the Fed, and there is a high probability that it will consider suppressing inflation. Then the best way to curb inflation is to raise interest rates. Therefore, the content of Yellen's speech is also conducive to the advance of interest rate hikes.
The fundamentals still haven't changed much, and the environment is bearish for gold prices. But the failure of gold prices to fall is also a variety of reasons. And I am still firmly bearish on gold, it does not fall I can not do, as for the gold price has not risen sharply. The shock has remained largely since mid-October. Basically 1790 can be said to be the average price in the near future. Then the more critical it is, especially the nearest interest rate decision and non-farm payrolls. It is still more optimistic about the decline in gold prices, after all, the tightening of monetary policy is conducive to the dollar environment has not changed.
As a trader, in the market, debut has been five years, the above content, on behalf of personal ignorance, not as the basis for investors to operate. If you are more comfortable with my opinion analysis. Welcome to follow, like, forward. If you disagree with my point of view, you are welcome to correct it. Personal originality, it is not easy, without permission, may not be reproduced and transported, thanks for understanding