Li Guo, a researcher at the 21st Century Economic Research Institute, reported that what are the characteristics of the domestic consumer market in the first three quarters? The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that it can be summed up in one sentence: "Driving an electric car out to eat, holding a smartphone to shop at home." ”
This is a conclusion reached after a comprehensive analysis of the consumption data of 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions (hereinafter referred to as the 31 provinces) in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, although affected by the sporadic epidemic, the consumption data in some regions, especially the individual monthly data, were not satisfactory, but the consumption resilience of the domestic market was still relatively strong, and the consumption upgrading trend continued to show.
The most important areas are new energy vehicles, catering, smart phones, and online shopping. Driven by environmental protection policies, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, especially the rapid growth of sales data, and the overall good epidemic prevention and control in China has also promoted the enthusiasm of residents to go out to party and eat - from the perspective of income growth, the catering industry in the first three quarters is generally higher than the commodity retail industry. In the context of epidemic prevention and control, merchants have increased their online promotion efforts, the growth rate of online sales is obvious, and in many regions, the proportion of online sales in retail sales above designated size has also continued to grow.
<h4>Hainan consumption is "thriving"</h4>
As of November 1, the third quarter economic data of 31 provinces have been fully released, and the consumer side highlights are frequent. First of all, from the perspective of regional data, there are 4 regions with a total retail sales of social consumer goods of more than 2 trillion yuan, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang. One of the biggest highlights is Zhejiang Province, where the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2.09 trillion yuan, breaking through the 2 trillion yuan mark for the first time in the first three quarters.
The total retail sales of consumer goods in nine regions are higher than 1 trillion yuan, namely Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, Fujian, Hubei, Hunan, Shanghai, Beijing and Chongqing. The total retail sales of consumer goods in 13 regions are less than 1 trillion yuan, and Qinghai is the only region that has not broken through the 100 billion yuan mark.
Despite sporadic outbreaks in many regions in the first three quarters, consumption growth in 31 provinces has maintained a positive growth trend, with 6 regions growing faster than 20%, including: Anhui, Hubei, Chongqing, Jiangxi, Shanxi and Hainan.
Hainan's consumption data is "thriving". In the first three quarters, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31.9%, much higher than that of the other 30 provinces. Driven by the construction of a free trade port in Hainan and related tax-free policies, Hainan is becoming an island-type tourism consumption destination that attracts residents from all over the country – in the first three quarters, Hainan achieved a total tourism revenue of 107.149 billion yuan, an increase of 136.9% year-on-year, an increase of 51.4% over the same period in 2019. The total number of tourists received was 57.593 million, an increase of 57.8% year-on-year and an increase of 2.9% over the same period in 2019. In the context of the emergence of the epidemic in the country and the low inter-provincial tourism boom, Hainan has exceeded the same period in 2019.
The high tourist popularity has promoted the prosperity of the local duty-free shopping industry. In the first three quarters, the retail sales of cosmetics in units above designated size in Hainan increased by 78.4% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 94.7% in two years; gold and silver jewelry increased by 87.1% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 78.3% in two years; and daily necessities related to tax-free clocks and bags increased by 89.0% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 51.7% in two years.
The recovery of consumption data in some regions has become evidence of the local government's efforts to overcome the impact of the epidemic, accelerate the resumption of work and production, and restore the normal life of residents.
If affected by the epidemic in Nanjing, Jiangsu's consumption data was once greatly affected. However, in the first three quarters, the province's zero growth rate increased by 19.5% year-on-year. Among them, September increased by 5.3% year-on-year, an increase of 8.2 percentage points over August, achieving rapid recovery after the impact of the epidemic.
At the same time, there are still obvious "abnormal" performances in some areas. The zero growth rate of Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Tianjin is less than 10%, and from the average growth rate of the two years, the average growth rate of Beijing, Jilin and Inner Mongolia is negative in the two years. The above two figures have been hovering at low levels for many quarters in some regions.
<h4>The prosperity of new energy vehicles remained high</h4>
Specific to the consumer industry, under the background of carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and energy consumption dual control, the sales boom of new energy vehicles remained high in the first three quarters, and two trends promoted the automobile market: the first is the transformation of the automobile market to new energy, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles and the proportion of the market continue to increase; the second is that the scale of automobile dealers that have been sluggish for a long time has also begun to grow again.
In terms of output, data from Shanxi Province show that in the first three quarters, the output of new energy vehicles in industries above designated size in the province was 29,000 units, an increase of 189.4%. On the sales side, the proportion of new energy vehicles above designated size in Fujian Province in the first three quarters was 6.0%, an increase of 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points over the first half of the year and the first quarter, respectively. According to data from Shandong Province, as of the end of August, there were 2,317 automobile sales enterprises above designated size in the province, an increase of 275 year-on-year, an increase of 13.5%.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the sales of new energy vehicles in the country reached a new high in the first three quarters - the sales of new energy vehicles by production enterprises reached 2.157 million units, an increase of 1.9 times year-on-year, an increase of 1.4 times over the same period in 2019, accounting for 11.6% of the new car sales of production enterprises. In September, sales of 357,000 units increased by 1.5 times year-on-year, once again setting a new single-month record.
However, due to unfavorable factors such as chip supply shortages, the growth rate of auto retail sales in some areas has declined. For example, statistics from Hunan Province show that in the first three quarters, among the wholesale and retail legal person units above designated size in the province, the retail sales of automobile commodities reached 117.649 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year, down 10.9 percentage points from the first half of the year.
Driving a new energy vehicle, where to go out? In the context of effective epidemic prevention and control measures, residents' willingness to consume catering has been fully released, and the release of some clustered rigid catering consumption (such as wedding banquets) suspended by the epidemic in 2020 has also promoted the recovery of the catering industry.
Sichuan Province, which is famous for Sichuan cuisine and hot pot, increased catering revenue by 46.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters, 16.9 percentage points faster than the whole country, and 31.4 percentage points faster than the growth rate of retail sales of goods; an increase of 24.4% over the same period in 2019, an average growth of 11.5% in two years. Among them, September increased by 21.2% year-on-year, 18.0 percentage points faster than the whole country, and 9.1 percentage points faster than the retail sales of goods.
In fact, even if some areas are affected by the epidemic and the catering industry has briefly declined, the recovery is faster than other industries. For example, in the first three quarters, Shanghai's retail sales of goods increased by 18.6% over the same period last year, while the growth rate of meal revenue reached 32.0%. In August, Shanghai's meal revenue fell 6.5% year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic, but the decline narrowed to 2.6% in September.
The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that the recurrence of the epidemic has a short-term impact on the catering industry, but on the whole, the revenue growth rate of the catering industry is faster than the growth rate of commodity retail. This indicates that residents' time for outings, gatherings and meals has increased, which is objective evidence of the effectiveness of domestic epidemic prevention and control measures.
<h4>The growth of online consumption is obvious</h4>
In recent years, the trend of domestic consumption upgrading has continued to be prominent, and communication equipment and gold and silver jewelry are among the representatives. For example, data from Shandong Province shows that in August, the retail sales of sports and entertainment products, communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry above designated size in the province increased by 65.6%, 73.0% and 75.7% respectively year-on-year; among them, the retail sales of wearable smart devices and smart phones increased by 116.6% and 84.4% respectively year-on-year.
In the first three quarters, the retail sales growth rate of goods such as gold and silver jewelry, household appliances, and furniture in Sichuan Province has exceeded the growth level of the same period before the epidemic, and the local statistics bureau analyzes that this reflects the "obvious upgrading trend of residents' commodity consumption".
Statistics from Anhui Province also found that consumers' awareness of environmental protection is constantly improving. In the first three quarters, local green smart goods grew rapidly, such as household appliances and audio-visual products with an energy efficiency level of 1 and 2 above the quota increased by 39.8%, an average growth of 53.9% in two years.
With the increasing maturity of network information technology and the popularity of smartphones, network consumption further increased in the first three quarters. Even if you can't eat out, you can bring food to the table from your phone. For example, the statistics of Jiangsu Province found that the online meal revenue in the first three quarters increased rapidly - the province's residential catering enterprises above designated size achieved meal revenue of 5.76 billion yuan through the public network, an increase of 166.8% year-on-year, of which the catering industry achieved 5.54 billion yuan of meal revenue through the public network, an increase of 173.5% year-on-year.
Statistics from Shanxi Province show that online consumption in the province has doubled. In the first three quarters, the province's online retail sales above designated size increased by 1.2 times, accounting for 8.0% of the province's retail sales above designated size, a significant increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year.
The boom in online retailing has also had a driving effect on other industries as well. Taking Guangxi as an example, it has been estimated that the online retail sales of physical goods have pulled more than 1.8 percentage points to the zero growth rate of the society. Judging from the development of the postal express industry, which is closely related to online shopping, the business volume and business revenue of express delivery service enterprises in the region increased by 41.5% and 27.4% respectively year-on-year in the first three quarters.
On the whole, the 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that "driving an electric car to eat out and shopping at home with a smart phone" is the epitome of China's consumer industry in the first three quarters, but it represents the development direction of the future consumer industry, that is, environmentally friendly consumption, experiential/contact consumption and intelligent consumption.
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