In the past two years, due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, the overall global economic situation is not very optimistic, for example, in 2020, the economy of many countries has experienced negative growth, and some countries have declined, even reaching more than 5%.
However, under this special background, because China's epidemic control is relatively in place, after May 2020, all aspects of China's economic life have gradually returned to a normal state, and after entering the second half of the year, the economy has also begun to slowly resume growth.
Therefore, throughout 2020, China's total GDP reached 101.6 trillion, in this special situation, China's economy can still achieve a growth rate of 2.3%, this achievement is indeed extraordinary.
After entering 2020, China's economic growth rate will further accelerate, and it is expected that China's economic growth rate will achieve a good result in 2021, such as the target set by the government report, that is, GDP growth of more than 6% in 2021.
As for how much China's economic growth rate will eventually reach in 2021, we cannot give an accurate judgment at present, but we can vigorously infer from the economic growth rate and economic growth momentum in the first quarter of 2021.
In the first quarter of 2021, China's GDP was 24,931 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year at comparable prices, an increase of 0.6% over the fourth quarter of 2020; an increase of 10.3% over the first quarter of 2019, an average growth of 5.0% in two years.
And in the first quarter of 2021, China's economic growth rate is out, so so fast, there is a very important reason is that the economic base in the first quarter of 2020 is relatively low, because in 2020, affected by the epidemic, China's economy fell by 6.8% year-on-year, and it is precisely because the base is relatively small, so the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 is so fierce.
Of course, the economy in the first quarter of 2021 can achieve this result, in addition to the small base, the more important thing is that China's economy is indeed growing very rapidly, and compared with 2019, the growth rate is still considerable.
The reason why the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 is relatively fast is due to the performance of the troika that drives the economy is very satisfactory, let's take a look at the specific performance of the 3-horse carriage in the first quarter.
1. Export.
In the first quarter, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods was 8.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 4.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.7%;
2. Investment.
In the first quarter, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 9,599.4 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% year-on-year and 2.06% month-on-month; an average increase of 2.9% in two years. Among them, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in March increased by 1.51% from the previous month. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment in the first quarter increased by 29.7% year-on-year and an average growth of 2.3% in two years; investment in manufacturing increased by 29.8% year-on-year, an average decline of 2.0% in two years; investment in high-tech industries increased by 37.3% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 9.9% in two years; among them, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 41.6% and 28.6% respectively year-on-year.
From these data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of various investments in the first quarter of 2021 is very fast.
3. Domestic demand.
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 105221 billion yuan, an increase of 33.9% year-on-year and 1.86% month-on-month; an average growth of 4.2% in two years. Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods in March totaled 3,548.4 billion yuan, an increase of 34.2% year-on-year.
It can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the troika that drives economic growth in the first quarter is obviously faster than the growth rate of GDP, which is also the driving force for China's economic growth.
And from the actual situation in April and May, the growth rate of the troika still continues the state of the first quarter, so it is not surprising that China's economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2021 still maintains a rapid growth, conservative estimates can reach at least 10%.
In recent months, China's economic growth rate is relatively fast, especially the growth rate of exports is very fast, which has a very important reason is that the current epidemic situation in some major foreign areas is still relatively serious, their economy still has not returned to a normal state, and many of the corresponding production and life have been affected.
On the one hand, this impact is that some enterprises are in a state of shutdown or half-person shutdown, on the other hand, because of the impact of the epidemic, the demand for home products has increased rapidly.
China has long recovered from the epidemic, China as the world's largest manufacturing country, in the case of global production is affected, many foreign production capacity have been transferred to China for production, which is very helpful for promoting the development of exports or driving the development of domestic related industries.
If the world does not improve rapidly in the short term, then this trend will continue, and China's exports and domestic demand around export industries will still maintain a rapid growth.
In addition, at present, various localities are also actively taking measures to promote local investment, and at the same time introducing various measures to stimulate the development of domestic demand.
Therefore, under the influence of various factors, the growth rate of the future troika is still full of momentum, and in this context, China's economy will achieve a good growth rate in 2021.
For example, on May 12, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released the "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021", which raised China's economic growth forecast in 2021 from 7.2% predicted at the beginning of the year to 8.2%, which I think has always been relatively reliable.
If there is no accident, the growth rate of China's economy in 2021 should be between 8% and 8.5%, which means that China's total GDP is expected to reach more than 1,10 trillion yuan in 2021, coupled with the expected increase in the appreciation of the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar, China's GDP in US dollar terms in 2021 may exceed 17 trillion US dollars, which will further narrow the gap with the US GDP.
According to the forecast of the United Nations, the GDP growth rate of the United States will reach about 6% in 2021, according to the CALCULATION OF THE US GDP of 20.95 trillion US dollars in 2020, which means that the GDP of the United States is expected to reach 22.2 trillion US dollars in 2021, when the gap between China's GDP and the United States is about 5.2 trillion US dollars.