Trading resumed over the weekend and remained bullish in November

Last week, the market was predicted to break through 3650 this week and march towards 3700. In this way, this week and this month will end with a red market. It turned over. On Tuesday, I touched the 3625 line and began to turn around. And also a decisive and sharp style, straight down for three days, people are stunned. From a technical point of view on Thursday, I think there is support on the 3490 line on the monthly line. As a result, the 3500 line began to rebound on Friday. On Friday, the three major stock indexes collectively rose sharply, with the Shanghai index up 0.82% to close at 3547.34 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.45 percent to close at 14,451.38 points. The ChiNext board rose the most, reaching 2.21%, closing at 3350.67 points.

This week fell for three days, unexpectedly. Even if someone sees the pressure and predicts that it will fall, this amplitude is beyond the range. Exactly why, there are different opinions. There also seems to be insufficient evidence. The mainstream view of the market is triggered by the slashing of coal prices, but from another point of view, the sharp decline in coal prices is beneficial to the overall enterprise and to the large economy. No, now The phenomenon of "power curtailment and production curtailment" in China has been greatly alleviated.

I think it was triggered by the relationship between the major powers. But this topic is sensitive, and everyone is trying to avoid it. I also tactfully placed so far, because I can't get around it. I see this clue very clearly, from the slander of the Five Eyes Alliance, to the negotiations between the two countries, and then the call, and then to the ban on China Telecom, and then to Xiao Cai's words, we can see the fierceness of the great power game. So now China's military exercises, the announcement of new equipment, is the beginning of the counterattack.

In the decades of reform and opening up, China has caught up all the way and is now the second in the world. This position is bound to be suppressed and contained. In the economic, trade and military fields, China has the strength to confront. But there is also a short board, which is actually in the financial field.

The Western financial system has a history of hundreds of years. In particular, the current financial system dominated by beautiful countries has a history of more than 100 years. Mature, sound, and varied. China's financial system is modeled after beautiful countries. I have to admit that in this regard, China is still a student. But also recognize the reality, never learn the core content. Because people have no intention of teaching us the core content.

Besides, the financial system over there, because of the difference in the system, is becoming more and more unsatisfactory. Therefore, China will certainly characterize and carry out reforms. Today, in the financial world, you have me and I have you. Reform must touch the interests of capital, so there will be resistance. This kind of resistance is secretive and will feel pain, but it is difficult to find the pain point. For example, this week's three-day slump is an example.

In the days to come, China will focus on two things, that is, to expand the financial market and then control capital.

Expanding financial markets is due to ambitious goals that will accelerate the entry of global capital. This is bound to happen, and it has to be open. Controlling capital and putting it in a cage is redefining financial functions under different systems. The question of whether finance will serve a few capitalists or all of humanity is under way.

Reform comes at a price. Occasional pains can also be avoided. But the future must be bright. For the future market, of course, it is always optimistic, not because it is a dead bull, but a lot of evidence that there is no substantial bearishness, more is a substantial bullishness. Picked up a few important pieces of news over the weekend for your reference.

1. At the end of this month, the quarterly report is released, and the comprehensive statistical data may be delayed before it can be found. As of October 28, statistics found that a total of 2570 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen disclosed the third quarter of 2021, more than half of them. Among them, 1742 companies achieved year-on-year net profit growth, accounting for 67.78%. In the third quarter, the number of companies with net profit growth in the third quarter reached 1,070, accounting for 41.6%. Nearly 70% of the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have experienced performance growth, which makes the market feel the strong resilience and potential of China's high-quality economic development.

The latest economic report card shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the gross domestic product (GDP) 823131 billion yuan, at comparable prices, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year, an average growth of 5.2% in two years; of which, in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. "Overall, the national economy in the first three quarters generally maintained a recovery trend, structural adjustment steadily advanced, and new progress was made in promoting high-quality development."

2. Since the beginning of this year, there are three main channels for cross-border funds to invest in China's securities: one is Bond Connect, the direct entry of the interbank bond market and the overseas issuance of bonds by Chinese institutions; the second is the Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect; and the third is QFII and RQFII.

According to statistics, as of October 21 this year, the transaction amount of northbound funds has exceeded 22 trillion yuan, a new high in the calendar year; the net purchase amount has exceeded 300 billion yuan, which has exceeded the net inflow of 208.932 billion yuan in 2020.

Wang Ying, a China equity analyst at Morgan Stanley, expects a net inflow of northbound funds of $50 billion to $60 billion for the full year of 2021, and the total inflow of funds included in the QFII is expected to reach $60 billion to $80 billion, or about 390 billion yuan to 520 billion yuan.

All kinds of indications show that at present, it is still in the period of foreign investment to increase the allocation of Chinese assets, and the quarterly reports released show that foreign capital is actively adjusting positions, from the "big and white" target to the "small and beautiful", and foreign capital will gradually enter a stable period of development in the future.

3. China Mobile intends to be listed on the main board of Shanghai, and plans to publicly issue no more than 965 million A-share shares, that is, not more than 4.50% of the total number of issued shares of the company after the issuance (before exercising the over-allotment option), and intends to raise 56 billion yuan for 5G boutique network construction project, cloud resource new infrastructure construction project, Gigabit Zhijia construction project, smart middle office construction project, new generation information technology research and development and digital intelligence ecological construction project.

4. According to the news of CCTV Finance and Economics on October 30, the CSRC issued the basic system of the Beijing Stock Exchange, which initially built the basic system system of issuance and financing, continuous supervision and exchange governance of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and clarified that the effective date of the basic system is November 15. This also means that the Beijing Stock Exchange will open on November 15, when more than 68 companies in the selected layer of the New Third Board market will all be translated into the Beijing Stock Exchange.

As can be seen from the above news, China's economy is steadily improving, and it can be said that it is the first in the world, so the influx of foreign capital is also accelerating. Judging from this general direction alone, Big A must be accumulating strength, and there will definitely be an outbreak in the future. At the same time, it can be seen that foreign capital is also actively adjusting positions, and not all foreign capital is not subject to control. Since it has entered China's capital market, it is ultimately necessary to obey the control, and only by moving in the opposite direction can we achieve the purpose of win-win.

So from a long-term point of view, it must be worry-free. The recent decline is more of a deliberate crackdown, of course, the purpose of this repression cannot be to flee. Another possibility is to swap positions and exchange shares at a low price. The frequent stop losses in the recent operation of individual stocks can only show that the intensity of capital suppression has exceeded expectations and is fierce. Contrarian thinking observation, the later stage will definitely be greatly pulled up.

China Mobile's listing has undoubtedly cast a little shadow on the broader market. But if you look closely, it is only 56 billion, which is not a large volume. Looking at the return of China Telecom in the early stage, it has not been able to affect the market. Therefore negligible.

The Beijing Stock Exchange officially determined the launch date, which is good for securities companies. The market must be pulled up to meet.

How to go in November? In addition to the relations between the major powers, there is still no substantial bearishness. So the expectation, of course, will be up.