Source: Cow Playing Piano WeChat Signal, Author: Cow Playing Piano
Frankly speaking, yesterday (February 1st) saw the Xinhua News Agency news, the political scene in Myanmar was shocked, and Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested, which was quite unexpected. After all, this friendly neighbor has just come out of military control; who knows, on the first day of February 2021, another cycle has begun.
Western countries naturally condemn or even threaten, and judging by China's reaction, it is more of a concern and concern.
At yesterday's (February 1) foreign ministry's regular press conference, a reporter asked: In the early morning of the 1st, the Burmese military detained Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and others, what is China's comment on the current situation in Myanmar?
Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin replied:
We have taken note of what has already happened and are learning more about the situation. China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, and we hope that all parties in Myanmar will properly handle their differences under the constitutional and legal framework and maintain political and social stability.
Things have happened, the most critical, what happens next?
At least ten tests, for Burma, for the world, and for China.
Test one, will it remain stable?
Such a big change, if you still say that the Burmese people are emotionally stable, it must be nonsense. The Chinese Embassy in Myanmar has issued an urgent reminder calling on Chinese citizens and Chinese-funded institutions to take security precautions. Alas, if it can't be stabilized, it's a disaster.
Test two, will there be a people's livelihood crisis?
Ordinary people still have to live. After yesterday's shock, looking at the CCTV report, a large number of Burmese people in Yangon, Mandalay and other places rushed to buy rice, oil and other necessities of life. In front of the bank ATM, there was also a long queue. Xinhua News Agency reporter reported on the spot that Yangon is generally calm, but the mobile phone can not be used normally... People's livelihood is a big issue, and for ordinary People in Myanmar, turmoil has only just begun...
Test three, can personal safety be guaranteed?
For Aung San Suu Kyi, this is not the first time she has been detained. But now, after all, unlike in the past, she is no longer young, she is 76 years old this year, and now it is a special period of the epidemic. If she had changed, it might have been bloody.
Test four, how to survive the next sanctions?
The United States has issued a threat that if the Burmese military does not release anyone, the United States "will take action against those responsible." To be sure, Myanmar will be subject to severe sanctions from the Western world. This is undoubtedly worse for Myanmar's poor economy. How to survive the next few days is really worrying for the Burmese.
Test Five, Civil Unrest or Civil War?
Don't forget, there are more than 100 ethnic groups in Myanmar, and in fact, in many places, such as Rakhine State, the civil war has been going on. Now, the political situation has suddenly changed, which does not rule out the intensification of contradictions and the recklessness of some people. Will civil unrest occur? Will civil war make a comeback? All are unknowns.
Test six, will the epidemic worsen?
Seeing the Burmese people who rushed to buy on the street, they basically wore masks. It is really a group of very good citizens, but the chaos that follows is certainly not a good thing for the prevention and control of the epidemic. Alas, sigh again for the Burmese.
Test seven, what about so much investment?
The West wields the stick of sanctions because the interests are relatively detached, and there is not much investment in Myanmar anyway. But for Japan, and especially China, what about that much investment? Oh, and then there's Singapore, which is said to have invested more in Myanmar than China.
Test eight, will it impact China's border security?
Don't forget, in the past few years, There have been many times when Burmese bombs have been dropped into China, causing casualties among our border residents. A large number of Burmese refugees have fled to China for refuge, triggering a refugee crisis. If Myanmar is unstable, it will seriously affect the tranquility of China's southwestern border. Thailand's first response was to deploy more troops at border crossings to deal with possible emergencies.
Test Nine, will the West divide and pull together?
Frankly, definitely. Previously supporting Aung San Suu Kyi against the military, Aung San came to power and then accused Aung San of all kinds of sticks against Myanmar. Now that the situation has suddenly changed, it will certainly pull one faction to fight and even provoke contradictions between Myanmar and its neighbors (and certainly China). Some of the twists and turns in China and Myanmar in the past few years are the sequelae of Western instigation. Now, it may be for the future ambush pen again.
Test ten, what about China?
There must be pressure, as I said before, the pressure of investment security, the pressure to protect the border, the deterioration of the people's livelihood in Myanmar and even the impact of civil unrest and civil war. Moreover, the West will certainly use this as a new bargaining chip to exert more pressure on China's diplomacy. The West can pat its butt and sing high-pitched, which is really a problem for China and other neighboring countries!
Therefore, from this perspective, we may better understand Wang Wenbin's statement: China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, and we hope that all parties in Myanmar will properly handle their differences under the constitutional and legal framework and maintain political and social stability.
Stability prevails, Myanmar is still poor, and the task of development is still heavy. This is also China's expectation. Who knows, such a good people, in the past few decades, have experienced so many tosses, over and over again.
After the myanmar shock yesterday, a teacher I respected said to me with great emotion: The world is very changeable, ups and downs, confusing, so we are often full of happiness... Great parties lead great countries!
This world is really better than not knowing!
Reprinted with deletions
Column Editor-in-Chief: Qin Hong Text Editor: Li Linwei Caption Source: Xinhua News Agency Photo Editor: Cao Liyuan
Source: Author: Cow Playing the Piano