Zhang Jie Zhu Qichao: The hidden situation behind the collision accident of the US nuclear submarine in the South China Sea
Author: Zhang Jie, Special Researcher of National Defense Science and Technology Strategic Research Think Tank of National University of Defense Technology; Zhu Qichao, Deputy Director and Researcher of National Defense Science and Technology Strategic Research Think Tank of National University of Defense Technology
Source: World Knowledge, No. 21, 2021; World Knowledge
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
On October 7, the U.S. Pacific Fleet issued a statement saying that the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine "Connecticut" hit an unknown object during its submarine voyage in the "Indo-Pacific International Waters" on the afternoon of October 2, and the crew was bruised, but there was no serious injury, and the submarine's nuclear power unit was not affected and was still operating normally.
According to Reuters, citing an anonymous U.S. official, the accident occurred in waters of the South China Sea and caused less than 15 people with minor injuries, two of whom were "moderate." As a party, the United States should have clarified the situation in detail at the first time, but it issued a brief statement five days after the accident, which raised more questions from the international community.
Data photo of the U.S. Navy's Seawolf-class attack nuclear submarine USS Connecticut (SSN22) departing the Puget Sound Naval Dockyard on the West Coast for sea trials on December 15, 2016.
The COLLISION of nuclear submarines of the US military has long been recorded
Submarines sail in the depths of the ocean, facing dangers and challenges such as reefs, turbulences, undersea cliffs, mechanical failures, etc., and the slightest carelessness is lost. In the past 20 years, the U.S. Navy has announced a total of 12 submarine accidents, including one internal fault, one entanglement by fishing nets, one maintenance accident, and as many as nine collisions.
Submarine collision hazards mainly include collisions with surface vessels, submarines or submersible vehicles, marine life, reefs or shipwrecks. The US military has not announced the damage after the submarine collision, the results of sonar listening before and after the collision and the elements of submarine navigation, so it is not yet possible to make a clear judgment on the cause of the accident, but it can still be reasoned and analyzed.
Of the nine collisions that have occurred in the U.S. Navy in nearly 20 years, seven have been collisions with surface vessels. Submarines float from underwater operating depth to periscope depth, and the periscope is the most vulnerable and collision-prone stage before raising the periscope to observe the sea surface, especially in the dense sea area of merchant ships and fishing vessels or in areas where their own ship formations are active. However, such accidents are also the easiest to determine the cause, and surface ships and submarines can quickly identify each other after a collision. The US military has not been able to identify the colliding object so far, so it can basically rule out the possibility of colliding with the surface ship.
Direct collisions are less likely, and there is a possibility of collisions with reefs or shipwrecks. Submarines rely on nautical charts for underwater navigation, but the situation on the seabed is complex, and even accurate nautical charts cannot mark obstacles one by one. The negligence and operational errors of the crew are also important causes of such accidents. But a direct collision with an undersea mountain range often has tragic consequences. In 2005, the USS San Francisco attack submarine ("Los Angeles" class) hit a mountain underwater in the caroline Islands, killing 1 dead and 98 injured, and the bow part of the boat was completely destroyed. The injuries in the South China Sea accident do not seem to be too large, and it should not be a collision with the undersea mountains. However, it does not rule out collisions with reefs or shipwrecks. Submarines arriving close to the reef for missions may also hit the underwater part of the reef.
In the 1950s, the US nuclear submarine "Sea Dragon" collided with whales in the Atlantic Ocean, the thrusters were damaged, no one was injured, and the whales died on the spot. The "Sea Dragon" belongs to the "Ray" class nuclear submarine, and the "Ray" class is the first series production attack nuclear submarine built by the United States after the successful test of the "Nautilus" nuclear submarine, with an underwater displacement of 2851 tons. The "Connecticut" that collided in the South China Sea this time belongs to the "SeaWolf" class, with an underwater displacement of 9124 tons, more than three times the tonnage of the "Sea Dragon", but the impact is significantly more serious than the "Sea Dragon", so it should not have hit the whale.
Collision with submarines is less likely, and the possibility of colliding with unmanned underwater vehicles is not ruled out. Two anonymous U.S. Navy officers told the media that while it was not known exactly what the submarine collided with, it was certainly not another submarine. Underwater collisions between submarines mainly occurred during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the intensity of the current confrontation between major powers was far less intense than at that time, and the possibility of deliberate collision was minimal. Similar to the accidental collision of British and French strategic nuclear submarines in 2009, the possibility of recurrence is extremely low, and there is no relevant party to express its position at present. However, the US military and its allies have dropped a large number of unmanned underwater vehicles in the South China Sea to detect the hydrological characteristics of the South China Sea and our submarine operations, once their navigation area and depth overlap with the submarine activity area, or the unmanned underwater vehicle is out of control, the US military may suffer its own consequences.
The intention behind it is more worth paying attention to
At present, the "Connecticut" has returned to Guam, and the accident investigation is further under way. We should pay more attention to the background of this accident. In the context of the United States clamoring for great power strategic competition, the US military has continuously strengthened its deployment of troops in the Western Pacific region, while China's military checks and balances capabilities, especially the "asymmetric" balances, have been continuously enhanced, and the US military believes that the "threats" faced by aircraft carriers, destroyers, aircraft and other weapons platforms are increasing. The US military has a nuclear submarine force with advanced performance and a large scale, and it vainly attempts to balance China by relying on its underwater superiority and counting on nuclear submarines to play the role of "vanguard.".
Submarines are highly concealed combat weapons, and in the past the US military spared no words about their actions. In recent years, the US Navy has deliberately released information on so-called "port visits" and tactical exercises to play a strategic deterrent role. At a time of tension on the Korean Peninsula in 2017, the USS Michigan cruise missile submarine "visited" the port of Busan in South Korea, which can carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. In February 2021, the "Ohio" cruise missile nuclear submarine and the Marine Corps conducted a "joint expedition concept" tactical exercise in the waters near Okinawa, and the Marines took nuclear submarines to conduct infiltration reconnaissance.
Forbes reported on August 4 that the three most powerful "Seawolf" class attack nuclear submarines of the US Navy this year, the "Seawolf", "Connecticut" and "Jimmy Carter", set sail from Bremerton and were deployed in the "Indo-Pacific" region. As a product of the peak of the Cold War, the "Seawolf" class nuclear submarines combined various advanced technologies of the US Navy at that time, and are currently the world's top attack nuclear submarines, but the high cost allowed the US military to purchase only three. However, only three months later, the Connecticut appeared in the media in this way, losing face.
Submarine warfare requires the support of the relevant combat system to maximize its effectiveness. The US military's marine surveillance ships and marine survey ships have frequently appeared in the South China Sea to carry out high-intensity operations, which also reflects the underwater preparations of the US military from the side. All five U.S. marine surveillance vessels in active service are deployed in the Western Pacific, responsible for monitoring underwater targets and conducting long-range detection and early warning of submarines. According to the statistics of China's "South China Sea Strategic SituationAlignment" platform, in the first half of 2021, at least one marine surveillance vessel was deployed in the South China Sea in 161 days, with a time coverage rate of 89%. The US military adopts the "first come, then go" rotation mode to achieve a seamless connection of monitoring tasks, and each marine surveillance ship has less than ten days to carry out maritime operations in the South China Sea for as little as 10 days and as many as 30 or 40 days. The US military mainly deploys the "Baudic", "Hansen" and "Sears" marine survey ships in the Western Pacific, and the main task is to detect the topography of the seabed and the marine meteorological and hydrological survey. It is foreseeable that the intensity, intensity, and pertinence of the US military's maritime reconnaissance forces in the South China Sea will be further enhanced.
The U.S. military's activities in the South China Sea threaten regional security and stability
For a long time, the US side has been making waves in the South China Sea under the banner of "freedom of navigation", posing a serious threat and major risk to regional peace and stability. Most of the US military ship collision accidents in recent years are related to the South China Sea, the most typical is that the guided-missile destroyer "Fitzgerald" entered the South China Sea on March 28, 2017, collided with a Philippine freighter in Japanese waters when returning on June 17, 2017, and the guided-missile destroyer "McCain" broke into the waters near Mischief Reef on August 10, 2017, and collided with a Liberian cruise ship in the waters near Singapore on August 21. Since August this year, U.S. and its allied warships have frequently shuttled between maritime chokes such as the Bashi Strait, the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of San Berdino, and the Strait of Surigao, holding military exercises and showing off their force.
The connecticut collision with an unidentified object while diving in the South China Sea fully demonstrates that the US military's behavior is unsafe. From the perspective of navigation safety, the South China Sea is densely packed with boats and many islands and reefs, and ships are very prone to collision if they are not careful. However, surface vessels are difficult to find and evade nuclear submarines in the underwater navigation state, causing safety hazards to normal sailing vessels. From the perspective of national and regional security, such as nuclear leakage caused by the impact of nuclear submarines, it will bring great disasters to neighboring countries. The United States has carried out military operations in the South China Sea with China as an imaginary enemy or even as the target of war preparations, increasing the risk of misjudgment and impact, and seriously threatening regional security and stability.
The US side deliberately delayed and concealed the details of the accident, lacked transparency, and was unprofessional. The accident occurred on October 2, and only a brief statement came out on the 7th. As a party, the United States has avoided talking about the specific location of the accident, the intention of the US side to sail, the details of the accident, whether it caused a nuclear leak, and whether it damaged the marine environment. China and neighboring countries in the South China Sea have to question the truth of the accident and the intentions of the United States. The United States and the United Kingdom recently decided to cooperate with Australia, a non-nuclear-weapon state, on nuclear submarines, promising to provide Australia with at least eight nuclear-powered submarines, and the probability of nuclear accidents will increase, which is also extremely irresponsible.
The US military's continuous involvement in the South China Sea and the so-called "comprehensive deterrence" operation will inspire the Chinese military to continuously strengthen its maritime crisis handling capabilities. With the continuous improvement of China's anti-submarine capabilities, the "underwater superiority window period" of US nuclear submarines in the South China Sea will also be slowly lost. China should work with the neighboring countries in the South China Sea to improve and perfect the plan for dealing with various dangerous situations, including the occurrence of nuclear leakage and nuclear pollution, and jointly build the South China Sea into a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation.
*Disclaimer: This article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent the position of this official account
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