I believe that when you see my title, you must be scornful and think that I am bragging. It's true that I have the intention of attracting attention with a title. But I definitely have the analytical skills and experience of catching the game that you don't have.
First of all, I will definitely introduce myself to you. My name is Autumn Rain, and some of my friends call me Old Autumn and some call me AYu. As for what to call you, I will leave it to you.
The year before, with the support of my friends and family, I chose my hobby to run a sports lottery shop, why should I open a store, because I want to do a good job without affecting my life. I thought of opening a shop, and naturally I also met a group of friends who played football lottery together. Next, I will combine the experience of so many friends in the circle, as well as the autumn rain store manager's unique analysis of football odds and markets for so many years!
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > first, the initial process of the bookmaker's operation</h1>
According to what I know about bookmakers, the process of opening odds can be roughly divided into the following steps: information collation, probability calculation, opening odds, odds (water level) adjustment and risk control.
1. Information collation and probability calculation
The procedure for the trader to open the market is a process of calculating probabilities, so the quality requirements for both mathematics and football are very high. The trader will first calculate the most likely outcome of the two teams to fight based on the past performance of the two belligerents, the recent status of the two teams, goals and conceded goals, etc., and then consider the team information. Calculate the probability
2. Open odds or markets
According to the results first calculated by the trader, the odds and markets are opened, and the purpose is to maintain the balance of the funds of the standard set (exclusive upper and lower orders), including the balance of the standard plate (exclusive win upper and lower orders) of a game, and the balance of betting funds in the same round of the league, and the Australian Lottery will win from a game with relatively balanced betting funds through a premium, which is the basis of the australian lottery's operation.
3. Adjustment of odds or water level
In fact, the result of the game and the odds (or cross-water level) is not much related, mainly according to the player's betting situation to adjust, if the odds (or water level) of a certain result is relatively low, it can only mean that there are more people who buy this side, and many idlers are optimistic about this side. Most of the odds (or water level) adjustments are automatically controlled by the computer, but there are also manual adjustments, the former mainly for some games with stable betting volumes, while the latter is mainly for some popular betting events.
4. Risk control
The AUS lottery has a risk management mechanism, when a team is bet on a team that exceeds the risk safety line, the system will automatically make corresponding adjustments to restore the odds (or cross-market level) to within the balance line, and the positioning of the safety line needs to be determined according to the chips of different events, the popularity of the event and other factors
Handicap analysis described above
Any bookmaker that offers odds and markets has a whole system (odds system) that induces bettors to bet by winning or losing, which is cheap to pick up, more risky, and sometimes this is a trap. In fact, any investment will be risky. I believe that all the domestic Bo ball masters will have been "black" before. Where is the rainbow without wind and rain? There is nothing in this world that is unearned. Risk and opportunity are always complementary, and high returns must imply high risks, but high risk does not necessarily give you high returns. In order to make a profit, then you must have made sufficient and mature preparations, in addition, since the game has risks and opportunities, then it must be scientific and regular. In this article, I emphasize two points: 1, Boqiu has rules to follow; 2, Boqiu is not a random work, high risk and high return.
Disc contrast method
The so-called plate type comparison method refers to the comparison of the plate type analyzed according to our preliminary preparation stage and the actual market opened by the dealer for this game, so as to obtain the correct result.
Then the situation involving the disc type comparison method must involve the analysis of the heat of the upper and lower discs of the disc type, which we have carefully elaborated in the previous article. However, many readers are still asking a very important question for betting - when is the "upsell precipitation" a hot performance (and vice versa), and when is the "upsell precipitation" and the bookmaker really optimistic? In fact, in the final analysis, all the changes in the market and the analysis of the market, the most important thing is to see the real intention of the bookmaker. Here, we have to rely on disk type analysis. From a static point of view, when the disk type is opened, there are three situations: A, the handicap is opened to give high water. B. Open the handicap to give reclaimed water. C. Open the handicap to give low water.
Let's imagine, if the market is opened, then the next plate will definitely show heat. So if the dealer is really optimistic about the upper market, how will he deal with this market?
——Think about it from the other side:
A. If the upper plate is high water, then we will hold the upper plate water level, and the heat of the lower plate will always be higher than the upper plate.
b, if the upper plate is reclaimed water, then we maintain the upper plate water level, or directly in the non-injection peak stage quickly lowered to ultra-low water, because the disk type is large, the lower plate should be the heating side, so, this practice, the next plate must present greater heat.
C. If the upper plate is low water, then we maintain the upper plate water level without oscillation, then in the same way, the lower plate will also show greater heat.
In short, when the handicap is open, the upper plate should maintain the water level, or quickly drop to ultra-low water during the non-injected phase. The "rising plate precipitation" of this kind of disk is obviously not necessary (because the upper plate is already large enough, and the lower plate is directly heated), so if there is a situation of "rising disk precipitation" at this time, it should be the performance of the heating of the upper plate.
Similarly, when the handicap is open, the lower order maintains the existing water level, or quickly drops to ultra-low water during the non-injected phase. The "descending plate rising water" of this disk type is obviously not necessary (because the lower plate is already small enough, and the upper plate is directly heated), so if there is a situation of "falling plate rising water" at this time, it should be the performance of the heating of the lower plate.
When the handicap is suitable, the upper and lower plates are in a state of equilibrium, and it is relatively easy to judge which side is the first to precipitate, which side is more likely to be hot.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > the Macau preliminary market comparison method</h1>
The Macau Preliminary Reference Comparison Method is one of the market analysis methods we focus on.
The so-called Macao preliminary participation comparison method means that the final result of the competition is judged by the comparison between the initial participation plate and the betting plate given by Macao.
The so-called initial market is generally speaking, before the Macau company starts to be bet on the game, it will give a standard market for the player's reference, which will not accept the player's bet, only for the player's reference. When the match is actually placed, the initial entry is adjusted to the official market accordingly. It is precisely because of this adjustment that it gives us the opportunity to analyze the results of the match. Just as the so-called "enemy does not move, I do not move", only in the changing situation will there be flaws. To find this flaw, it is necessary to understand what causes the adjustment of the betting order. It's about the issue between European and Asian companies. Since European companies and Asian companies are two different competition analysis groups in the world, it is inevitable that there will be differences in the attitude and results of the analysis of competitions between European companies and Asian companies. When differences arise between the two groups in Europe and Asia, they must be reconciled with each other. Once there is discord, then it will definitely find a cut for the player, which the bookmaker does not want to see.
I vaguely remember that at the last World Cup, I almost took 20-30 calls a day, and finally I was forced to shut down! Many people ask me whether I am an investment or a gamble. Personally I think. He is an investment rather than a gambling that everyone thinks. Investing in football: it is both a bad business and a most promising business!!! Since it is an investment, everyone must also adhere to the principle that you must not put eggs in one basket, so I also do not like to buy in the way of stud! It is necessary to have a calm and analytical attitude and a spirit of daring to take risks. This is a phrase often said by friends in the circle.
I believe that after reading the first thoughts of my own heart above, most of you may feel the same, long foot color road, why am I not full of scales? There is a common phenomenon that has always puzzled me is that some people have obviously lost or have not understood some of the principles of football, and even football is not loved just a little white, but when they communicate with me, their hearts are full of trepidation and doubts, so why is this happening? Then you go back to the above and look at the meditation and state of mind again, full of experience on the side of the truth. I just want to say that if you are sincere in finding a way, then I will give you a better tomorrow! But if you come to me full of suspicion and vigilance, then I will only reply to you with two words, huh! Of course, vigilance is something that everyone has, but trust is built by two people, isn't it? Friends always say that I am like a detective, but I feel more like a thief, a thief who knows how to seize opportunities.
Finally, if you want to go long-term on the road of investment, you can only do a few things: First, avoid greed, strictly control the amount of each investment ~ it is recommended that novices divide the principal into at least a few hundred parts, and friends with two years of experience will divide the principal into dozens of parts; the second is to practice the basic skills, analyze the fundamentals, markets, etc., pay attention to accumulation and summary, improve skills ~ do a good job in which industry needs several years of effort! Third, only when there is a good game ~ 70% or 80% certainty, you can shoot! Fourth, we must have a healthy physique! Fifth, we must have a peaceful mentality, and we must not be arrogant in victory or discouraged! The last, and most important one, is that money cannot be exchanged for affection.