PP: If it doesn't ring, it's already a hit

It has been nearly a month since the outbreak began, and the PP market has set off wave after wave of boom. Up to now, the PP index of China Plastics City has risen from 829.6 points to 927.96 points, which is staggering. This wave of market due to the energy consumption dual control policy arising, and then in the PP futures, petrochemical and other rounds of promotion, spot towards the high point of the year, whether it is wire drawing, injection molding, or powder, fiber, have broken through the 10,000 yuan mark. Among them, on the day of the Return to the Market during the National Day holiday, the rally was particularly fierce, with a range of 400-800 yuan / ton, and some exaggerated to reach more than 1,000 yuan. Transaction: Although there have been transactions that do not ask the price to pay directly, there has not been an equal hot scene in the opposite provinces to face the different degrees of power curtailment measures. Taking Zhejiang as an example, before the National Day, the 2021 B-class orderly power consumption plan has been launched, with 3 stops 4 and 4 stops, which is a big test for demand.

"Golden Nine" power, "Silver Ten" Are you ready to take over the baton?

Demand side: The implementation of the "energy consumption dual control" policy, high-energy-consuming enterprises are facing production reduction and suspension, and the downstream operation will be affected, but the rigid demand is still there, and with the cooperation of seasonal demand, it is likely to maintain a relatively balanced state.

Cost side:

1, the end of October in the north to begin to enter the heating season, speculating that thermal coal may be more supply of power generation demand, thereby reducing the demand for chemical coal, for the plastic industry, the late supply and demand contradiction is difficult to alleviate. In addition, the global natural gas prices are rising, the price of methanol in the outer plate continues to rise, it is reported that from the end of October to November, the domestic northwest natural gas methanol plant has been parked, from December to January, the southwest natural gas methanol plant is facing parking, and the tight supply side of methanol may continue until the end of the year.

2, a number of sets of propylene devices are in a state of shutdown, coupled with the inflow of peripheral goods can not be much, the low inventory makes the market change from the previous year's mild, ushering in the largest increase in the year. However, there is still a cautious mood about whether the rally can be extended in the later stage, one is the arrival of propylene cargoes scheduled in the early stage, and the other is rumored that from mid-to-late October, some of the parked propylene devices will be restarted.

3. Some coal-to-PPP devices are overhauled or reduced in load production, but the impact on the entire PP supply and demand side is limited, because from the perspective of the impact of petrochemical plant shutdown, the month-on-month (Average 12.93% in September) is significantly lower, basically maintained at about 6-7%. In addition, during the National Day holiday, the inventory of "two barrels of oil" has accumulated, and it is currently in the process of slow destocking. The total port inventory increased slightly by 14.4%, which was specifically distributed in North China, East China and South China.

Power curtailment measures have triggered effective demand concerns, downstream consumption still needs to be followed up, but PP futures are in a strong trend, plus the fundamentals are relatively healthy, spot is expected to remain good in the short term, and some resource quotations may continue to rise.