On October 31, 2021, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted it.
In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for two consecutive months; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 52.4% and 50.8%, respectively, down 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the expansion range.
First, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index has declined
In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2% due to factors such as the remaining tight power supply and the high price of some raw materials. From the perspective of the industry situation, 9 of the 21 industries surveyed were above the critical point, 3 fewer than last month, and the production and operation activity of manufacturing enterprises was weakened. Key features of the month:
First, the supply and demand sides have further slowed down. The production index and new order index were 48.4% and 48.8%, respectively, down 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in the contraction range, with manufacturing production and market demand weakening. From the perspective of the industry, the two indexes of textile, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing are located below 45.0%, and the prosperity level at both ends of supply and demand is low.
Second, the price index continues to rise. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 72.1% and 61.1%, respectively, higher than 8.6 and 4.7 percentage points last month, of which the ex-factory price index was the high point in recent years. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of petroleum coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing are located in the high range of more than 73.0%, reflecting the accelerated rise in raw material purchase prices and product sales prices.
Third, the import and export index rebounded slightly. The index of new export orders and the index of imports were 46.6% and 47.5%, respectively, up 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Recently, the world's major economies have recovered and slowed down, the international economic and trade situation is complex and changeable, and the trend of manufacturing imports and exports needs to be further observed.
Fourth, the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industry was 52.0% and 51.2%, respectively, which was 2.8 and 2.0 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry, continuing the expansion trend, and the overall pulling effect on the manufacturing industry was still more obvious. The PMI of high-energy-consuming industries is 47.2%, lower than the overall manufacturing industry by 2.0 percentage points; the expected index of production and operation activities in high-energy-consuming industries is 48.6%, which is 5.0 percentage points lower than the overall manufacturing industry, both of which are the lowest points since March 2020.
Fifth, large enterprises are running stably. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, down slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, and large enterprises continued to expand. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and it was in the contraction range for two consecutive months; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.5%, unchanged from the previous month, and it has been in the contraction range for 6 consecutive months.
Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index continues to be in the expansion range
In October, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the tipping point, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand, but the strength weakened.
The recovery of the service sector has slowed. The index of business activity in the service industry was 51.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the level of prosperity declined. From the perspective of the industry situation, the business activity index of telecommunications radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services and other industries has been higher than 56.0% for two consecutive months, and the market activity has been continuously improved; driven by the "Eleventh" Golden Week, the business activity index of accommodation, catering, ecological protection, environmental governance, entertainment and other industries, which is closely related to holiday consumption, is located in a higher boom range of more than 55.0%, and the total amount of business has increased significantly compared with the previous month. At the same time, affected by the epidemic and weather, consumers are more inclined to spend festivals or short-distance peripheral travel, although the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation and other industries this month is located above the critical point, but the expansion is relatively weak, and the level of prosperity is not as good as the same period in recent years; in addition, the business activity index of capital market services, insurance and real estate continues to be lower than the critical point, and the prosperity is low. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 58.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but continued to be in a higher boom range, indicating that most companies are more optimistic about the recent development of the service market.
The construction industry grew steadily. The business activity index of the construction industry was 56.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still in a higher boom range, and the construction industry production continued to grow. From the perspective of market demand and employment, the new order index and the employee index were 52.3% and 52.4% respectively, indicating that the number of new project contracts and labor volume signed by construction enterprises increased compared with the previous month.
Third, the expansion of the composite PMI output index has slowed down
In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall pace of expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has slowed down. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, are 48.4% and 52.4%, respectively.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics website