Shi Qingchuan, trainee reporter of China Economic Weekly, | Reported by Beijing and Chongqing
Many places ended the second round of concentrated soil auctions this year, and the results were basically the same. As a relatively prominent performance in the first round of soil auctions, Chongqing's second round of soil auctions has attracted much attention. From the result point of view, the results of the two rounds of soil auctions in Chongqing are not small, but some people in the real estate industry are not pessimistic about it.
The results of the two rounds of concentrated soil auctions in Chongqing are strongly contrasted, but in anticipation?
On September 24, the second round of soil auctions in chongqing's main city, which was originally planned for two days, basically came to an end half an hour later. According to the announcement, there are 42 cases of commercial and residential land auctions, about 4111 mu, with a starting price of 31.59 billion yuan and an average floor price of 7060 yuan / ㎡.
The 9 parcels of land that were terminated early the day before the soil auction totaled 750.14 mu, with a starting price of 6.671 billion yuan, accounting for 21.4% of the number of land parcels to be transferred; in the end, 5 parcels of land were auctioned, a total of 903.83 mu, with a starting price of 8.662 billion yuan.
The remaining 28 cases were finally traded, a total of 2457.378 acres, with a total price of about 16.260 billion yuan and an average floor price of 6187 yuan / ㎡.
Among them, only two pieces of land entered the auction link, and the Cai family won 127.6 acres of land in the Cai family for 780 million yuan by the 20th Bureau of China Railway, with a floor price of 7641 yuan / ㎡, which has the highest premium rate, but it is only 0.43%.
It is worth noting that this time to get land, the major housing companies are basically "lying flat" to cope. As early as September 23, there was a list of real estate companies in the industry that would not participate in the second round of soil auctions, and after the start of the soil auction, Vanke, Longhu, Greenland, Sunac, China Resources, Country Garden, Poly, CCCC and other large real estate companies did not appear in the participation list, and the only private enterprises registered this time were Xinoupeng, Guosheng and Qiaoda.
But in fact, the results of the second round of soil auctions in Chongqing are not unexpected, yang Yu, who has been engaged in the real estate industry in Chongqing for many years, told the "China Economic Weekly" reporter that this result is expected, and can be predicted from the soil auction situation in other cities across the country.
The reporter found that in the cities where the current second round of soil auctions has ended, Hefei has listed 17 cases of land, 9 cases of stream auctions, and the premium rate is more than 2%; the first batch of 10 plots of land sold by the second round of land in Hangzhou are all auctioned; a total of 75 cases of residential land are sold in the second round of Chengdu, 17 cases of transfer are cancelled before the start of the auction, 6 cases of auction are auctioned, and 52 plots are successfully transferred, with the overall premium rate of 2.2%, which is 5.2% lower than that of the previous batch; Fuzhou second round of soil auctions 19 plots, 4 cases of residential land were suspended on the day of the start of the auction. A total of 14 parcels of land were transferred, 2 cases of streaming auctions; Tianjin should normally list 61 plots of land in this round, but finally stopped auctioning 19 cases, 2 cases of streaming auctions, and finally 40 plots were sold; Jinan listed 108 cases of land, of which 25 cases were terminated early, and 76 cases were finally sold and all were sold at the reserve price.
Yang Yu said that in the context of the whole country, the results of the second round of soil auctions in Chongqing are relatively normal, and the reason why everyone reacts more strongly is that the contrast with the first round of soil auctions is relatively strong.
According to public data, the overall premium rate of the first round of land auctions in Chongqing is as high as 43%, and the premium rate is the highest among the 22 key cities in the country that implement the "double concentration" land supply policy. At that time, the results of the soil auction also led to house prices, central park, Xiyong, University City and other sections rose amazingly, and the house prices of these plots stood at a high level of 20,000 yuan per square meter at that time.
The impact of the second round of soil auctions on Housing Prices in Chongqing may be limited?
If this round of soil auctions is cold, will house prices be affected? At present, some people in the industry believe that it is unlikely.
Guo Huaqiao, who is engaged in real estate investment in Chongqing, told The China Economic Weekly reporter that in the whole country, the housing prices in Chongqing are not high in themselves. From the policy level, Chongqing's second round of soil auctions returned to the normal range, indicating that the regulation is effective, then there will be no major regulation in the next time this year; from the perspective of land supply, the land supplied by the second round of soil auctions is not more than one round, and the disks developed later will be reduced accordingly, and from the perspective of supply and demand, the house price will not change much; from the perspective of transaction prices, although this round of soil auctions are all bottom price transactions, the more mature plots in the location, the difference in transaction prices is not as much as imagined.
Through comparison, the reporter found that the final transaction price of the first round of tupai Guanyin Bridge Group C20-1/04 plot was 15307 yuan per square meter, while the second round of Tupai Guanyin Bridge Group H Partition H06-5/04 plot, the final transaction price was 13300 yuan per square meter. The difference in the middle is 2,000 yuan per square meter, but a round of soil auction plots is next to the Flower Garden Light Rail Station, which is relatively more valuable. From the perspective of the dimension of popular mature plots, the difference in floor price between the two rounds of soil auction transactions may not be large.
Although the two soil auctions of the Xiyong group seem to have a large price gap, the first round of concentrated soil auctions of the Xiyong group L division L60-2/04, L division L55-1/06 in the micro-electric park and Laijiaqiao light rail station range, U division U8-17-1/03, U division U8-13-2/03, U division U9-6-1/05 is within the radiation range of the university town business circle, the transaction price of these five pieces of land may not be outrageous at about 12,000 yuan per square meter. The two rounds of soil auction of the Xiyong group O partition O06-9/03 plot, O07-4/03 plot, O07-5/03 plot three plots are located next to the public rental housing in Quanfeng Town, far from the university town business circle, around is not through the subway, but closer to the Baishiyi Industrial Zone, the transaction price of 4960 yuan per square meter may not be underestimated.
A round of soil auction Guanyin Bridge group C zone C20-1/04 plot
The second round of soil auction Guanyin Bridge group H zone H06-5/04 plot
A round of soil auctions Xiyong group L division L60-2/04
A round of soil auctions Xiyong group L division L55-1/06
A round of soil auctions xiyong group U8-17-1/03, U division U8-13-2/03, U division U9-6-1/05
The O06-9/03 plot, O07-4/03 plot and O07-5/03 plot of the O07-5/03 plot of the xiyong group of the second round of soil auction
(The location map is for reference only, please refer to the official plot announcement)
According to the data of MingTeng Institution, before and after the two rounds of soil auction (9.20-9.26), the new supply of commercial housing in Chongqing was 236,300 square meters, down 54.63% month-on-month; the transaction area was 199,000 square meters, up 30.41% month-on-month; the average transaction price was 14,158 yuan / ㎡, up 0.21% month-on-month. It can be seen that the change is not large, and there is even a slight increase.
Zhang Kuiyuan, who is engaged in real estate marketing, has a similar view, telling the China Economic Weekly reporter that the last project in his hand was closed in August, and he has not yet taken on new business in September. Although the market fell into a cold period, but the price in the market did not change significantly, according to his experience, although the developer will not reduce the price, but in order to return the funds will generally make some investment in marketing means, such as increasing the strength of the concession, or giving up more channel fees. "Before the round of soil auctions, the market was relatively cold, and at that time, the developer paid more marketing expenses, and told me that it was to sell a set of losses." Zhang Kuiyuan laughed and said that after the end of a round of soil auctions, chongqing house prices rose in some areas. For the second soil auction cold, Zhang Kuiyuan said that from the current situation in the industry, it is a good thing for the market, after all, it is more rational to take the land, and it has a solid significance for the overall house price in the back.
The reporter of China Economic Weekly then visited some Chongqing real estate agents and found that the price of the house listed by the real estate agent has not changed. Cui Qiong, a salesman at Deyou Real Estate, told the China Economic Weekly reporter that there is no case of landlords suddenly reducing prices and sales, and their workload is currently very saturated. "If you hadn't asked about the changes after the second round of soil auctions, I wouldn't have noticed that the second round of soil auctions would have ended." Cui Qiong also revealed that the current second-hand housing transactions are relatively hot, many people want to sell at a price, but there is no large number of situations below the market price, the most time occupied by themselves is to see the seller to obtain price information, but the first-hand house is relatively cold, the listing is very sufficient, this month she handled the two sets of first-hand houses can feel that there is no room for growth, one of which is sold at a special price.
How to survive the winter without taking the land?
Due to the cold of the second round of soil auction, a large number of real estate enterprises in Chongqing did not take land during the second round of soil auction, and many netizens are worried about whether the third round of soil auction will show a situation of land grabbing.
According to public data calculations, the total transaction amount of Chongqing's two rounds of soil auctions is more than 79.7 billion yuan, which is different from 114.3 billion yuan in 2020 and 84 billion yuan in 2019. Therefore, from the data point of view alone, the third round of soil auction may have room for progress.
Guo Huaqiao speculated that the current mood of real estate companies is sluggish, and the soil auction is likely to avoid the current market situation and carry out next year, which also gives developers some time to return funds from sales stocks.
A real estate industry insider who did not want to be named analyzed the "China Economic Weekly" reporter that in the case of real estate developers' enthusiasm for land acquisition is not high, there is no need to rush to carry out another soil auction within the year. Although there is not much land in the hands of some real estate developers, such as the stock land in the hands of Xuhui Real Estate, there is only one round of land auction left, but this second round of soil auction did not take land, he guessed that the real estate developer changed the game.
The reporter found through the news released by the Chongqing second round of soil auctions that most of the land was taken for urban construction state-owned enterprises such as Chongqing Yitian Health Care Industry Development Company, Chongqing Caijia Group Construction and Development Company, Mindray City Investment, Chengdu Urban Construction Investment Management Group, etc. According to public information, the above-mentioned development companies had previously undertaken more urban construction projects and developed commercial real estate alone.
According to the analysis of the above-mentioned industry insiders, there are many thresholds for participating in the soil auction this time, and these powerful state-owned enterprises are likely to cooperate with private enterprises to develop after taking land. In this way, the debt ratio of private enterprises will not soar, the cost of private enterprises will be greatly reduced, and the risk of bad tails will be relatively reduced.
Kangtian Real Estate (wholly owned by Chongqing state-owned assets) with the most land this time may be the forerunner of this strategy, and the previous two projects of Kangtian Lanshan Fan and Longhu Luchen were developed by Kangtian in conjunction with Longhu.
The above-mentioned industry insiders speculate that the Kangtian Real Estate acquisition of land and the follow-up development of Longhu are likely to participate. Longhu has participated in the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises and is relatively good at establishing cooperation with state-owned enterprises to quickly obtain high-quality land resources, which may be an investment strategy for Longhu Real Estate to stabilize the debt ratio.
A reporter from China Economic Weekly contacted Longhu for an interview, and Longhu politely refused on the grounds that the listed company's letter was in place.
In the view of the above-mentioned industry insiders, high-debt housing enterprises can actually learn from similar strategies to safely cross this year's winter. In this way, even if the third round of centralized soil auctions is not carried out this year, real estate companies have a way to survive.
Editor-in-charge: Yao Kun
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