Groundhog Prediction: Spring in the United States will have to wait 6 weeks

Source: Global Times

The "Prediction Emperor" who completed the mission was held aloft.

Under the shadow of the new crown epidemic, some parts of the United States held the 135th "Groundhog Day" celebration on February 2, and broadcast it live on television and the Internet. Since 1887, generations of Groundhogs in the United States have been tasked with forecasting the seasons. According to legend, after the marmot that woke up from hibernation came out of the cave on February 2, if the sun was shining and could see its shadow, it would indicate that the North American winter would not end for 6 weeks, and it would continue to return to the nest to sleep. And if it was a cloudy and cloudy day and you couldn't see your shadow, it meant that spring was coming, and it was no longer coming home, but wandering around outside. The peasants can then begin spring planting. In the era of underdeveloped technology, farmers in North America mainly relied on the prediction of groundhogs for spring ploughing and autumn harvest. For more than a century, this "Lichun Prediction" has gradually developed into a folk culture in the United States, and its popularity has not faded.

On this year's "Groundhog Day", the weather in pensutoney, Pennsylvania, was cold, but the Pensuttony Zoo gathered many journalists, locals and tourists, and the TV station broadcast the "Groundhog Day" activities to the whole country and even the world. A Global Times reporter watched the live broadcast on YouTube. This important mission of predicting the season was accomplished by a marmot officially named "Phil". In a nest made of one-meter-tall tree stumps, Phil was still hibernating. The host knocked on Phil's door with his cane, and people around him shouted "Phil, Phil, Phil." Phil seemed to be woken up by the calls of the people, but had no intention of going out. At about 7:35 a.m., the host took the sleepy-eyed Phil out for a walk, and he saw his own shadow in the sun. The host then held it high above his head, and the crowd cheered for the "Prediction Emperor". Phil was then placed on a stump platform in the center of the ceremony, which was covered with a crimson royal blanket. The host tried to talk to him, but Phil remained quiet. After a while, the host sent Phil home to continue hibernating. At the end of the event, the host announced that Phil predicted that winter was not over and that he would have to wait another 6 weeks for spring to really come, that is, spring on March 16. And the weather forecast in the United States says that spring in the United States really begins on March 20. It was basically consistent with Phil's prediction. The United States is vast, and other states have their own groundhog forecasters, but the official is usually Phil, Pennsylvania. In 1993, comedian Bill Murray starred in the film "Groundhog Day", which made Pennsylvania's groundhogs famous worldwide.

Why choose the February 2 forecast? It is said that this day originated from the "Holy Candle Festival" in Europe, which is the 40th day after Christmas. On this day, early Europeans predicted spring by candlelight: if the candlelight of the day was transparent and bright in the clear sun, spring was still on the way. If candlelight brings clouds and rain, spring arrives quickly. When European immigrants settled in the United States, this tradition was brought to the United States, and the glorious task of predicting spring was given to the Native American "groundhogs". Animals hibernating in soil are believed to have the ability to predict the arrival of spring.

However, relevant statistics show that the accuracy rate of groundhog prediction of spring is less than 40%. Many years ago, a marmot forecaster not only came out of the hole, but also did not return at night. When the locals saw it, they thought spring had arrived and hurried to plant crops. However, the weather did not warm up that year, and the seeds planted froze to death, causing huge losses to the locals. In a fit of rage, some farmers took the groundhog to court and demanded that it be sentenced to death. People outside the stadium raised banners calling for its rescue. It is said that the case was later closed because the defendant "escaped from prison".