In the context of rising supply chain prices, this year's centralized photovoltaic new installed capacity showed a shrinking trend, with the arrival of the end of the year, whether the installed capacity can be as last year, there is a wave of counterattack, causing market concern.
Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, previously said that from January to September, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the country was only about 22 million kilowatts, less than half of the installed capacity in 2020. This means that if it is to be on par with the installed capacity in 2020, it will need to complete more installed tasks than the previous three quarters in less than 3 months.
The reason why the new installed capacity is less than expected is due to the high cost of the supply chain of the photovoltaic industry this year. Under the background of rising silicon prices, the prices of products in the main links of silicon material end, silicon wafer end, cell end and component end remain high.
The high price caused the new PV installed capacity to fall in September to only 3.51GW, down 14.6% month-on-month from 4.11GW in August.
So, in the fourth quarter, is the game of the photovoltaic industry chain expected to come to an end? Is the installed capacity expected to rise significantly? Different voices have emerged in the market about this issue.
<h2>The "operating rate" game of the photovoltaic industry chain is nearing the end, and this year will still replicate the "year-end rush"</h2>
In the context of the recent jump in industrial chain prices (significant and real), the reduction of the operating rate of enterprises and the expectation of annual production and sales (the vertical and horizontal game atmosphere of the industrial chain is strong and there are still variables), the market's confidence in whether the annual installed capacity can be achieved has once again wavered, and to a certain extent, it is reflected in the recent stock price fluctuations.
However, the Yao Yao team of Guojin Securities believes that this goal is expected to be achieved. The team said that the new installed capacity data in China this year has a high probability of replicating the sharp tail in the last month of last year.
Specifically:
From the perspective of the industrial chain, although the "operating rate downward adjustment" of the industrial chain in October does not seem to have significant pressure on the prices of major raw materials such as silicon, glass, and adhesive film, with the recent national control of coal prices, the chain reaction is expected to make the prices of major photovoltaic raw materials fall (such as industrial silicon prices have been significantly adjusted), thereby reducing the pressure on the industrial chain, making the production, sales, and loading and unloading of the two months at the end of the year can be expected.
Looking back at last year's domestic PV installation rhythm, the average increase in Q3 2020 was 2.5GW, and after entering Q4, it rose to about 4GW in October/November, and soared to 22GW in the last December, thus achieving a new installed capacity of 48GW for the whole year that exceeded everyone's expectations. As far as this year's situation is concerned, the team believes that the new installed capacity data in China this year has a high probability of replicating the situation of the sharp tail in the last month of last year.
At the same time, the team maintained the domestic 55-60GW and global 160GW+ installed capacity judgment.
<h2>Silicon production capacity is still insufficient in the short term, and photovoltaic installed capacity is under pressure</h2>
For the first view, there are also some objections in the market.
The Zhouran team of Galaxy Securities started from the production capacity of upstream raw materials and came to the conclusion that the installed capacity of photovoltaics this year is not optimistic.
From the perspective of silicon production capacity, the new silicon production capacity of the whole industry in 2021 is mainly 80,000 tons of Tongwei shares, 35,000 tons of Xinjiang Daquan, 30,000 tons of Asian silicon industry, and 44,000 tons of granular silicon and 12,000 tons of rod silicon of GCL-Poly.
The above-mentioned production capacity concentration period is the fourth quarter of 21, and the full production capacity is waiting for the first half of 22 years. Insufficient production capacity superimposed on the impact of electricity curtailment in the near term, it is expected that the price of short-term silicon materials will still show a trend of easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the installed capacity of photovoltaics this year will be less than expected.
On the event that the rising price of the supply chain affects the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry, according to China Energy News, Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, stressed that at present, the fluctuation of supply chain prices has sounded the alarm bell for the industry. If the high prices continue, the competitiveness and advantages of photovoltaics as a cheap clean energy source will also be affected.
This article is from Wall Street Insights, welcome to download the APP to see more