The smoke from the Finals has dissipated, and teams eager to strengthen their squads will enter a new arena in the offseason. For these teams, whether they can show their skills and win in the offseason "big fish battle" will directly determine whether their new season records are good or bad. Next, let's take a look at the "prey list" of these teams:
1. John Collins (restricted free agent), Atalanta Hawks
Collins made a gamble on himself, turning down an early extension from the Hawks and will enter the free agent market this offseason as a restricted free agent. Now it seems that Collins has won the gamble. Although the regular season statistics have declined from the previous season, in the playoffs, Collins fully demonstrated his mobile and good shooting ability, while proving that he did not only win on the offensive end when playing with Trae Young. The Hawks certainly want to keep Collins, but they haven't made up their minds to offer Collins a top-salary contract that the latter craves. So teams that are eager to reinforce the interior have to be prepared.
Number worth mentioning: Collins was one of only three players last season who shot at least 70 percent from at least 100 shots in the box and at least 50 percent from at least 100 shots in the mid-range range, with the other two being Jalen Brunson and Nikola Jokic.
Related free agents: Jarrett Allen and Laurie Markkanen. The Cavaliers got Allen from James Harden's big deal, and they've already made a qualification offer for Allen, but they don't necessarily want to keep Allen. Markkanen shot a career-high 40.2 percent three-point shooting from the Bulls last season, but he's significantly less important than ever when Nikola Vucevic joins, and his departure may only be a matter of time.
2. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Lowry and the Raptors considered going too far last season, but no team was able to provide a chip to impress the Raptors before the trade deadline. Teams that want to get Lowry in this summer's free market must have enough leverage and salary space, because Lowry, who has a deep affection for the Raptors, is likely to agree to sign first and then trade.
Number worth mentioning: Last season, the Raptors lost 0.3 points per 100 possessions when Lowry was on the floor and 0.2 points per 100 possessions when Lowry wasn't on the floor.
Related free agents: Mike Conley and Chris Paul. Lowry, Conley and Paul are all veteran gun point guards. Conley will turn 34 by October of this year, and his importance to the Jazz last season is self-evident, but the Jazz will have to carry a weighing luxury tax if they renew Conley. Paul seems to have found a sense of home in Phoenix, he is happy to be a mentor to young people, and there is still hope for the suns to compete for the title.
3. DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs
DeRozan will turn 32 in August of this year, and his three-point shooting is still a short board, shooting 22.7 percent from 35 of 154 three-pointers over the past three seasons, the lowest of the 365 players who have shot more than 150 three-pointers in the past three seasons. But last season, DeRozan's true shooting percentage was the second-highest of his career at 59.1 percent, even higher than Trae Young (58.9 percent) and Doncic (58.7 percent). There is no doubt that DeRozan is still a good player on the offensive end, and he can provide the fire support that many teams want.
Number worth mentioning: DeRozan had an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.32 in 2019-20 compared to 3.55 last season, and he is the player who has seen the largest increase in assist-to-turnover ratio among players who have played at least 1,000 minutes in the past two seasons.
Related free agents: Rudy Guy and Patti Mills. Spurs want to make the core lineup younger, and they may no longer need the support of the two veterans Guy and Mills, but that doesn't mean other teams don't need it either.
4. Kawhi Leonard (player option), Los Angeles Clippers
For a player of Leonard's caliber, a knee injury doesn't affect his popularity in the free agent market. Leonard now has the player option for next season, and he can choose to execute, choose to jump out and re-sign the Contract with the Clippers, or see which other team is better suited to his championship needs.
Number worth mentioning: Leonard's true shooting percentage in this year's playoffs is as high as 67.9%, which is the highest number in league history for a player who has played at least 10 playoff games and averaged at least 30 points per game.
Related free agent: Spencer Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie, who also suffered a serious knee injury and also had player options in his hands, eventually chose to jump out of his contract to become a fully free agent. Of course, Leonard can have more options than Dinwiddie.
5. Lonzo Ball (limited free agent), New Orleans Pelicans
If you only look at the half-court offensive ability, Ball may not be the top 15 point guards in the league, but his basket finishing ability and three-point ability are improving every year, his assists in the fast attack can help the team easily score points, and he is also a high guard with strong defensive ability. The Pelicans also have two other young guards: Niccoli Alexander Walker Jr. and Kayla Lewis, and if the contract extension doesn't go well, the Pelicans may have them both take on more tasks in the future.
Number worth mentioning: When Ball was on the floor, he hit 41.3 percent of the Pelicans' three-pointers, fifth among 362 players who played more than 500 minutes in the league.
Related free agents: Derwent Graham (Hornets), Frank Nilikina (Knicks), Kendrick Nunn (Heat). Both Graham and Nunn have only played in the league for two or three years, and as second-round picks, they have both become restricted free agents. Ball's younger brother squeezed Graham off the bench last season, but he remains a key member of the Hornets. The sixth man's status may be more suitable for a small scorer like Graham. Nunn played well in the regular season last season, but he did poorly in the playoffs and gradually lost his starting spot. Compared to Dragic's player options, the Heat are clearly more likely to afford Nunn's contract. If Nelikina still wants to stay in the league, he needs to leave New York to start over.
6. Andre Drummond, Los Angeles Lakers
Drummond joined the Lakers after being bought out, but in the playoff game where the Lakers were eliminated, even if Anthony Davis only played 5 minutes due to injury, Drummond was not sent to the court at all. Before being bought out, the Pistons almost gave him away to the Cavaliers. Drummond's eventual fate is hard to predict.
It's worth mentioning the numbers: James, Davis, and Drummond only played 129 minutes at the same time last season (74 minutes in the regular season and 55 minutes in the playoffs), and all three of them lost 6.9 points per 100 possessions when they were on the floor at the same time.
Related free agents: Dwight Howard (76ers), Sergi Ibaka (Clippers), Ennes Kanter (Blazers), Robin Lopez (Wizards). Howard played much better during the Lakers period than Drummond, but he didn't give the 76ers much help in the playoffs. Kante played well in the regular season and was relatively reliable in the playoffs. Ibaka has only played four games since March 14, so there's a good chance he'll execute his player options. Lopez developed a new scoring skill last season – the jumping hook.
7. Dennis Schroeder, Los Angeles Lakers
Point guard in the offseason remains the lakers' most interesting position. Schroeder shared James's possession pressure with the Lakers, but his stats were down sharply from the Thunder, and he couldn't get the Lakers' offense up and running when James came off. In the playoffs, his average assists per game dropped from 5.8 to 2.8.
Number worth mentioning: Schroeder led the league with an average of 1.4 indirect assists per game in the regular season.
Related free agents: Alex Caruso (Lakers), Golan Dragic (Heat), Reggie Jackson (Clippers), TJ McCanell (Pacers), Cameron Payne (Suns). After three seasons with the Lakers, Caruso has won his place, but replacing Shiro may be a daunting task for him. McConnell played his career best last season. Jackson and Payne played well in the playoffs. Dragic still has 19.4 million team options a year at the Heat, and if the Heat want to operate in the free market, they won't execute Dragic's team options.
8. Richard Holmes, King of Sacramento
Holmes is another player who grew up during the 76ers rebuild. Like Covington, Grant, Wood and McConnell, his next contract will be pretty good. He's one of the most efficient role players in the league, and he's already one of the league's best framers, with some coping skills.
Number worth mentioning: Holmes is one of only two players in the league who shoots more than 70 percent from a reasonable charge zone and more than 50 percent from a three-second zone (more than 200 shots), and the other is Nikola Jokic.
Related free agents: Ken Bodge (Raptors), Monterez Harrell (Lakers), Norrance Noel (Knicks), Kelly Olynyk (Rockets), Bobby Portis (Bucks). There are a lot of powerful centers in this year's free agent market, there are young people and veterans, and they all have their own characteristics. Harrell was the league's best sixth man, Noel was an elite defender, Olynyk was able to open up space to tackle the attack, and Portis played with energy.
9. Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Maverick
Last season, Hardaway Jr. was the most threatening three-point shooter in the entire Lone Ranger.
As Luka Doncic's best helper, in this year's playoffs, Hardaway Jr. scored a combined 49 points in his first two games (11 of 17 three-pointers), helping the Lone Ranger lead the Clippers 2-0. Hardaway Jr. may have been the best "shooter" on the free agent market this summer, and given that he's a restricted free agent, the Mavericks shouldn't let him go. But in recent times, the Lone Ranger has undergone earth-shaking changes up and down, so everything seems to be possible.
It's worth mentioning the number: In the regular season last season, Hardaway Jr. shot a total of 369 three-pointers for catch jump shots, ranking 7th in the league; in addition, Hardaway Jr. shot 40.9% of three-point shots, ranking 30th among the 86 players in the league who shot at least 200 catches and jump shots.
Related free agents: Reggie Bullock & Alec Burks (Knicks), Brin Forbes (Bucks), Danny Green (76ers), Doug McDermott (Pacers), Malik Munch (Hornets), George Niang (Jazz), JJ Redick (Lone Ranger), Duncan Robinson (Heat).
Duncan Robinson is the better option (Duncan Robinson is the only player in the league to shoot more than 1,000 three-pointers and shoot more than 40 percent of the way over the past two seasons), but he is also a restricted free agent and the Heat will definitely keep him; Doug McDermott has expanded his game content, averaging 6.4 points per game last season and shooting 70 percent in the box; JJ Redick is now on the decline, and his value has shrunk considerably compared to the past.
10. Norman Powell (player option), Portland Trail Blazers
Given that there aren't many teams in the league that have enough salary space today, and the Blazers are less likely to send away the players they just traded, Powell still looks like he'll be part of the Blazers next season. Last season, Powell scored a career-high 18.6 points with 57.0 percent effective shooting, and he just turned 28. If the Blazers want to make their lineup bigger (move 6'3 Powell to the No. 2 spot) and strengthen the defense a bit more, powell has the potential to be the Blazers' number two scorer. The question is exactly what kind of outside supporter the Blazers want to place around Damian Lillard.
Number worth mentioning: In the regular season last season, Powell averaged 0.477 points per touch, which is the second most of the 325 players in the league who touched the ball at least 1,000 times.
Related free agents: Will Barton (Nuggets), Torre Craig (Suns), Evan Fournier (Celtics), Josh Hart (Pelicans), Kelly Upbre Jr. (Warriors), Otto Porter Jr. (Magic), Josh Richardson (Lone Ranger), Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors).
Most of the players on this roster (with the exception of Trent) have gone through bumpy roads in the past season, either suffering injuries or battling COVID-19. In addition, Barton and Richardson are both player options, while Trent is a restricted free agent.
11. Bruce Brown (restricted free agent), Brooklyn Nets
Brown was one of the league's most glamorous players last season, often playing center on the offensive end at 6'4 while keeping an eye on his opponent's best outside scorers on the defensive end. He did well at one point, but we have reason to doubt that he's a good fit for other teams as well — when James Harden and Kyrie Irving were injured in the playoffs, Brown did a lot of damage to the Nets' overall offense because he couldn't shoot on the perimeter or create shooting opportunities on his own.
Notable number: In terms of effective shooting percentage, Brown improved from 48.0 percent in 2019-20 to 57.6 percent last season. Over the past two seasons, 183 players in the league have averaged at least 300 shots per season, and Brown ranks fifth in that increase.
Related free agents: Jeff Green & Blake Griffin (Nets).
Last season, Green's three-point shooting rate reached a career-high 41.2 percent, and Griffin's form has recovered. However, both players have certain problems on the defensive end. In addition, Green may not accept such a cheap contract as he did last season.
12. Nicholas Batum, Los Angeles Clippers
Nicholas Batum and Cameron Anthony are two strikers who are very noteworthy in the free agent market this year. A 3D striker, Batum helped the Clippers unlock a small-ball lineup and is now a veteran role player seeking a new contract at the end of his career. Batum lost his starting big forward position at the end of the regular season last season, but when the playoffs began, Batum played another 10 games as a starting center. Without Cousins, Ibaka and Zubac, the Clippers scored 124 points per 100 possessions in a 412-minute period.
Notable number: Batum shot 40.4 percent from a three-point shooter in the regular season last season, the 34th-highest number among the 86 players in the league who shot at least 200 three-pointers.
Related free agents: Cameron Anthony (Trail Blazers), Treve Ariza & Andre Iguodala (Heat), Paul Millsap (Nuggets), Derek Rose (Knicks), PJ Tucker (Bucks), Louis Williams (Hawks).
For these veterans, stability can be an issue (as rose we saw in the playoffs). However, these veterans still have a certain role in the league, and in the right environment, they can still shine.
Source: NBA official website