[This article is about 4200 words, it takes 5 to 10 minutes to read, and the article ends with an analysis of the next major earthquake in Japan and its impact on China]
Japan is located in the Pacific Plate, Eurasian Plate, Philippine Sea Plate, Okhotsk Sea Plate junction, the history of the Japanese archipelago earthquake is very frequent, according to statistics only since 1900 Japan has had 8 or 8 magnitude earthquakes 17 times, on average about 7 years Japan will encounter a magnitude 8 or 8 or more earthquake. In addition, according to statistics, the cumulative number of deaths in Japan due to earthquakes and secondary disasters has exceeded 150,000 since 1900.
The following are earthquake events that have killed more than 1,000 people in Japan since 1900.
On September 1, 1923, a magnitude 8.2 earthquake struck Sagami Bay in the Kanto region of Japan, killing or missing 105385 people.
On March 7, 1927, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck the northern Dango Peninsula in Kyoto Prefecture, Japan, killing 2,925 people.
On March 3, 1933, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake struck the waters east of Iwate Prefecture in northeastern Honshu, Japan, killing or missing 3,064 people.
On September 10, 1943, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck the eastern part of Tottori Prefecture in Japan, killing 1,083 people.
On December 7, 1944, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake occurred in the southeastern waters of Mie Prefecture, Japan, and the earthquake and tsunami caused a total of 1,223 deaths or disappearances.
On January 13, 1945, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck Mikawa Bay in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, killing or missing 3,432 people.
On December 21, 1946, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake struck off the southern Kii Peninsula in Japan, killing or missing 1,443 people.
On June 28, 1948, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck northern Fukui Prefecture, Japan, killing or missing 3,769 people.
On January 17, 1995, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck the Akashi Strait in southern Hyogo Prefecture, Japan, killing or missing 6,437 people.
On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck the waters east of Miyagi Prefecture in northeastern Honshu, Japan, killing or missing 22,000 people.
From the above historical data, we can see that earthquakes in Japan have been very active in history, and the casualties caused by earthquakes have been very large. It is worth noting that the most recent earthquake in Japan that caused serious casualties was the 9.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred on the east coast of Japan in 2011 and the tsunami it caused, and this earthquake has been 10 years old, so the question is, where will the next earthquake in Japan that can cause huge casualties occur?
Based on the distribution of large earthquakes in Japan's history and the distribution of earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in Japan since 1900, we believe that the next major earthquake in Japan that can cause huge casualties will occur in the southern sea trough of Japan.
The Southern Sea Trough of Japan refers to the plate boundary of more than 800 kilometers in the southeast of Kyushu Island in Japan - south of Shikoku Island - south of the Kii Peninsula of Honshu Island - south of Ise Bay - south of Shizuoka Prefecture - Suruga Bay, which is located at the junction of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate Plate, and the Philippine Sea Plate subdues below the Eurasian Plate every year, causing the boundary of the Eurasian Plate to gradually twist and finally release energy through the form of a large earthquake when this subduction interface reaches a certain angle. Historically, there have been many major earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above in the southern sea trough of Japan, which have caused serious casualties and even led to the eruption of Mount Fuji Volcano.
The following is data on major earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above in the history of the Southern Trough of Japan.
From 20:00 to 22:00 on November 26, 684, a major earthquake occurred in the southern waters of Japan's Shikoku Island, and modern research believes that the magnitude of this earthquake is about 8.25 [it is also believed that the magnitude is between 8 and 9], the earthquake caused a destructive tsunami off the coast of southern Japan, and the tsunami affected Shikoku Island, Kii Peninsula and other places.
At about 16:00 on August 22, 887, a magnitude 8 to 8.5 earthquake occurred in the southwest waters of the Kii Peninsula in the southeastern waters of Shikoku Island, Japan, south of the Kii Waterway, and caused a destructive tsunami off the southern coast of Japan, which affected Shizuoka Prefecture, the Kii Peninsula, and the shores of Shikoku Island. Aftershocks after the great earthquake lasted for more than a month, known as the Renhe earthquake.
At about 08:00 on December 11, 1096, a magnitude 8 to 8.5 earthquake occurred in the waters southeast of The Kii Peninsula in Japan and south of Shizuoka Prefecture, which triggered a destructive tsunami off the southern coast of Japan, which struck the Kii Peninsula, Suruga Bay and other southern coastal areas of Japan.
At about 06:00 on February 16, 1099, a magnitude 8 to 8.3 earthquake occurred in the southern waters of Shikoku Island, Japan, and the tsunami caused by the earthquake struck the coastal area of Shikoku Island in Japan, sinking about 10 square kilometers of land.
At about 04:00 on July 26, 1361, in the southeastern waters of Shikoku Island, Japan, a large earthquake of magnitude 8.25 to 8.5 occurred in the southwest waters of the Kii Peninsula, and the tsunami caused by the earthquake struck the Japanese shikoku island and the western coast of the Kii Peninsula, known as the Zhenghei Earthquake [also known as the Kang'an Earthquake].
At around 08:00 on September 20, 1498, a major earthquake of magnitude 8.2 to 8.4 occurred in the waters south of Shizuoka Prefecture in Japan, and the tsunami caused by this earthquake struck Chiba Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, YachijoJima, Izu Islands, Shizuoka Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, Mie Prefecture, and Wakayama Prefecture in Japan, with a height of between 4 and 20 meters, and the tsunami reached a maximum of 36.4 meters. The earthquake and tsunami killed between 15,000 and 26,000 people, and the history of this earthquake is known as the Ming dynasty earthquake.
February 3, 1605 In the waters south of Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan [It has also been suggested that the earthquake did not occur in the southern trough of Japan but in the Mariana Trench along the Izu Islands-Ogasawara Islands] A magnitude 7.9 to 8 earthquake occurred, the earthquake occurred on Kyushu Island, Kyoto area, Fangzong Peninsula, Ise Bay coast are all felt, this earthquake caused a large-scale destructive tsunami, the tsunami hit japan's Fangso Peninsula, Shizuoka Prefecture, Kii Peninsula, Shikoku Island, the eastern coast of Kyushu Island, the height of the tsunami ranged from 1 meter to more than 10 meters, reaching a maximum of 30 meters. The earthquake and tsunami killed between 5,000 and 10,000 people, and the history of this earthquake is known as the Gyeongchang earthquake.
At about 13:45 on October 28, 1707, a large earthquake of magnitude 8.6 to 9.3 occurred in the southern waters of the Kii Peninsula in Japan, which was probably the largest earthquake ever recorded in the southern sea trough of Japan, and almost all of Japan had obvious earthquakes, and even Shanghai, China, which was 1300 kilometers away, had earthquakes [historical records that the Water of Huzhou River swelled and the earthquake on October 4, 1945 of Kangxi].
The tsunami triggered by the earthquake struck the coastal areas south of japan's islands of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu, as well as Shanghai, China, and Jeju, which may have also suffered a tsunami. Together, earthquakes and tsunamis killed more than 20,000 people. The history of this great earthquake is called the Baoyong Earthquake. Just 49 days after the earthquake, there was a volcanic eruption at Mount Fuji in Japan, with an eruption rating of VEI5.
At 09:15 on December 23, 1854, a large earthquake of magnitude 8.4 to 8.6 occurred in the waters south of Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, and was significantly felt by the Japanese archipelago at the time of the earthquake, and the earthquake also caused a large-scale destructive tsunami along the coast of Chiba Prefecture, Tokyo Bay, Kanagawa Prefecture, Ogasawara Islands, Shizuoka Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, Mie Prefecture, Tokushima Prefecture, and Kii Peninsula. The earthquake and tsunami killed between 2,000 and 3,000 people, and the history of this earthquake is known as the Anzheng Tokai Earthquake.
At about 16:00 on December 24, 1854, a large earthquake of magnitude 8.5 to 8.7 occurred in the southwest waters of the Kii Peninsula in the southeastern waters of Shikoku Islands in Japan, and in addition to the earthquakes in the Japanese archipelago, there were also obvious earthquakes in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other regions of China [According to historical records, the water of the Huangpu River in Shanghai boiled two or three feet, Jiading, and Suzhou were the same].
The tsunami caused by this earthquake swept through Japan's Shizuoka Prefecture, Wakayama Prefecture, Osaka Prefecture, Hyogo Prefecture, Okayama Prefecture, Hiroshima Prefecture, Yamaguchi Prefecture, Ehime Prefecture, Tokushima Prefecture, Kochi Prefecture, Oita Prefecture, Miyazaki Prefecture and many other parts of Japan, and even Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai along the coast of China may have also suffered from the tsunami. The earthquake and tsunami killed thousands of people and is known as the Anzheng South China Sea Earthquake.
At 13:35 on December 7, 1944, a magnitude 8.1 to 8.2 earthquake occurred in the southeastern waters of Mie Prefecture on the Kii Peninsula in Japan, which was felt almost all of Japan at the time of the earthquake, and caused a local destructive tsunami in the southern part of Japan, causing a total of 1223 deaths or disappearances. The history of this great earthquake is known as the Showa Southeast Sea Earthquake.
At 04:19 on December 21, 1946, an earthquake of magnitude 8.1 to 8.4 occurred in the waters south of the Kii Peninsula in Japan, which was felt almost all of Japan at the time of the earthquake, and caused a local destructive tsunami in the southern waters of Japan, which killed or disappeared a total of 1,443 people. The history of this great earthquake is known as the Showa South Sea Earthquake.
From the above historical seismic data, it can be seen that the southern trough of Japan has indeed been very frequent in history, and the last major earthquake in the southern trough of Japan has been 75 years ago, so it is very likely that the next major earthquake in Japan will occur in the southern sea trough of Japan. Based on the analysis of the energy released by the historical earthquake in the South China Sea, our side has judged that the next major earthquake in Japan is likely to occur in two areas of the southern sea trough in Japan, one area is the sea area south of Shikoku Island, and the other area is the sea area south of Shizuoka Prefecture. 【Area shown in the following figure】
We believe that the 1944 earthquake in the southeastern waters of the Kii Peninsula of Japan and the 1946 earthquake in the southern waters of the Kii Peninsula of Japan only released the energy accumulated in the sea area south of the Kii Waterway in the southern sea of Japan - the southern sea area of the Kii Peninsula - the sea south of Ise Bay, while the fault zone in the southeastern sea area of Kyushu Island - south of Shikoku Island and the sea area south of Shizuoka Prefecture - Suruga Bay did not fully release energy. Therefore, it is very likely that the next major earthquake in Japan will occur in the sea south of Shikoku Island or the sea south of Shizuoka Prefecture.
Based on the predictions of the Earthquake Survey Headquarters, Japan's official earthquake prediction agency, we have made the following two scenarios of the Great Trough Earthquake in Southern Japan. [The Earthquake Survey Committee under the Earthquake Survey Headquarters, Japan's official earthquake prediction agency, believes that the probability of a large earthquake in the southern sea trough in Southern Japan between 2019 and 2049 is as high as 70% to 80%]
Scenario 1: Simulates a major earthquake in the waters south of Shikoku Island, Japan
From 2021 to 2049, a magnitude 8 to 8.4 earthquake occurred in the waters south of Shikoku Island in Japan, and the earthquake occurred in Kochi Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, and Tokushima Prefecture on the Japanese island of Shikoku, with a magnitude of 6 to a magnitude of 7. Miyazaki Prefecture, Oita Prefecture, Kumamoto Prefecture, Kagoshima Prefecture, Nagasaki Prefecture, Fukuoka Prefecture, Saga Prefecture, Honshu Shima Yamaguchi Prefecture, Hiroshima Prefecture, Shimane Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture, Okayama Prefecture, Hyogo Prefecture, Kyoto Prefecture, Osaka Prefecture, Wakayama Prefecture, Nara Prefecture, Mie Prefecture, Shiga Prefecture, Fukui Prefecture, Gifu Prefecture, Ishikawa Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, Shizuoka Prefecture, Toyama Prefecture, Nagano Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Niigata Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, Tokyo Prefecture, Tochigi Prefecture, Ibaraki Prefecture, Chiba Prefecture, Okinawa Prefecture all have strong or obvious tremors.
Overseas, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu all had obvious earthquakes, and south-central South Korea and Jeju Island also had earthquakes.
The earthquake triggered a large-scale tsunami process along the southern coast of Kyushu Island, Shikoku Island, Kii Peninsula, and honshu Island in Japan, of which the tsunami height of the eastern part of Kyushu Island, the coast of Shikoku Island, and the Kii Peninsula reached more than 3 meters. In Japan's Seto Inland Sea, there have also been tsunamis ranging from 1 to 3 meters along the coast of Osaka Bay [tsunamis will hit the Seto Inland Sea and Osaka Bay within 2 to 3 hours after the earthquake]. Japan's Ise Bay, Shizuoka Prefecture coast, Kyushu Island southern coast appeared about 3 meters of tsunami waves, it is expected that the tsunami waves may cross the Ryukyu Islands island chain affecting China's Shanghai, Zhejiang coast, affecting China's coastal tsunami height will be less than 3 meters [Tsunami will affect China's coast about 6 hours after the earthquake].
Based on the casualties caused by major earthquakes in the region's history, we believe that earthquakes and tsunamis are likely to cause up to 30,000 deaths and at least thousands of deaths.
Scenario 2: Simulate a major earthquake in the waters south of Shizuoka Prefecture
One day from 2021 to 2049, a major earthquake of magnitude 8 to 8.4 occurs in the sea south of Shizuoka Prefecture in Japan, and the maximum seismic intensity of Shizuoka Prefecture will reach 7 when the earthquake occurs, Miyazaki Prefecture, Oita Prefecture, Kumamoto Prefecture, Kagoshima Prefecture, Nagasaki Prefecture, Fukuoka Prefecture, Saga Prefecture, Honshu Island Yamaguchi Prefecture, Hiroshima Prefecture, Shimane Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture, Okayama Prefecture, Hyogo Prefecture, Kyoto Prefecture, Osaka Prefecture, Wakayama Prefecture, Nara Prefecture, Mie Prefecture, Shiga Prefecture, Fukui Prefecture, Gifu Prefecture, Ishikawa Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, Shizuoka Prefecture, Toyama Prefecture, Nagano Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Niigata Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, Tokyo Prefecture, Tochigi Prefecture, Ibaraki Prefecture, Chiba Prefecture, Fukushima Prefecture , Miyagi Prefecture, Yamagata Prefecture, Akita Prefecture, Iwate Prefecture, all have strong or obvious earthquake sensations.
Overseas, some high-rise buildings in south-central Korea, eastern Korea, Jeju Island, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu may have significant earthquake sensations.
The earthquake will trigger a large-scale tsunami process along the southern coast of Kyushu Island, Shikoku Island and Honshu Island, including Mie Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, Ise Bay Coast, Shizuoka Prefecture, Suruga Bay, and Izu Islands. In addition, tsunami waves of about 3 meters may occur along the southern coast of Ogasawara Island, Sagami Bay in Japan, the southern coast of Shikoku Island, and the eastern coast of Kyushu Island. The Okinawa Islands, seto inland sea, Osaka Bay, and Tokyo Bay may have tsunami waves of 0.5 meters to 1 meter. Tsunami waves below 0.5 meters may affect our coastal areas.
Based on the casualties caused by major earthquakes in the region's history, we believe that earthquakes and tsunamis will cause up to 10,000 to 20,000 deaths and a minimum of 1,000 deaths.
All in all, Japan's next major earthquake will occur in the southern waters of Shikoku Island or in the waters south of Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, and if it occurs in the southern waters of Shikoku Island, it will still have a certain impact on China, and if it occurs in the sea south of Shizuoka Prefecture, the impact on China will be very small.