Gülen and Zhao Bei are both very good fund managers in the pharmaceutical industry, Gülen is known as the queen of pharmaceutical funds, and Zhao Bei has won the five-year fund championship, both are top fund managers, very good.
In the past four years, Gülen's performance has been better than Zhao Bei's
In the past four years, in addition to the performance of the two in 2020, the performance of Gülen in 2017-2019 is better than that of Zhao Bei.
Draft: Top shot
In 2020, the performance of the two people is only 0.11%, it can be said that there is no difference, in the three years from 2017 to 2019, Gülen's performance is better than Zhao Bei, in 2017, Gülen's performance is 8.96% more than Zhao Bei's performance, and it is also the year with the largest performance gap between the two in the past four years.
It is precisely because of such excellent performance that Gülen was sent to the throne of the queen of the pharmaceutical fund, and fans came to visit.
This year's painting style suddenly changed, and Gülen lagged behind Zhao Bei by 17.25%
Entering 2021, the painting style has suddenly changed, and Gülen's performance has not only been surpassed by Zhao Bei, but also the gap is more than 10%. As of the close of trading on September 16, the net value of medical and health care in China and Europe has increased by 4.92% this year, the net value of ICBC Frontier Medical has increased by 22.17% this year, and Gülen has lagged behind Zhao Bei by 17.25%, which is relatively rare. Why? The reasons behind this are analyzed in detail below.
First, this year's market is extremely differentiated Even within the same industry, it is also extremely differentiated
This year's market differentiation is very serious, can be described as a split, is obvious half of the sea water and half of the flame. For example, the steel industry has risen by 68.44% this year, but the home appliance industry has fallen by 24.16%. Even within the same industry, the sub-sectors below are heavily fragmented.
Shenwan first-level industry pharmaceutical biology is again subdivided, can be divided into six sub-industries, namely traditional Chinese medicine, chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, medical devices, medical services, pharmaceutical business, these six sub-industries are also seriously differentiated, the largest increase in medical services up to 13%, while the most declining pharmaceutical business is down 20.54%, in addition, this year's hot CRO is up 42.68%, so even in the pharmaceutical industry, if the sub-industry choice is different, the performance will be hugely different.
Let's take a look at the industry distribution of Gülen and Zhao Bei's positions at the end of the second quarter.
From the perspective of shenwan pharmaceutical secondary sub-industry, five of the top ten heavy positions of CEIBS medical and health are only medical service industries, while ICBC Frontier Medical has five medical services, and the two funds do not win or lose. However, in terms of medical devices and biological products, there are three medical devices and biological products industry in Central Europe Medical Health, while ICBC Frontier Medical has only one, and these two sub-industries have fallen sharply this year, and ICBC Frontier Medical has won.
From the perspective of the strongest sub-industry CRO of the pharmaceutical industry this year, it is clear at a glance, there are 5 CRO companies in the top ten heavy positions of Ceibas Medical and Health, while there are 8 ICBC frontier medical companies, CRO has risen as much as 42.68% this year, Zhao Bei accurately grasped this year's CRO market, and the performance has also opened up the gap.
Second, the scale difference is huge: CEIBS medical health 50.498 billion yuan VS ICBC frontier medical treatment 12.542 billion yuan
On December 31, 2020, the scale of CEIBS medical health care was only 23.243 billion yuan, while ICBC Frontier Medical was only 6.801 billion yuan, ceibal medical care was 16.4 billion yuan more than ICBC frontier, and as of June 30, CEIBS medical healthcare was 37.9 billion yuan more than ICBC frontier medical care, and the scale gap has widened by more than 20 billion yuan in half a year.
After the size of the fund reaches a certain volume, as the scale continues to grow, it will affect the excess return, that is, the larger the scale, the more difficult it is to obtain the excess return. This seems to be more macroscopic, more general, and we will give a concrete example to visualize this matter.
According to the Mid-Report of Medici, CEIBS Healthcare is the largest circulating shareholder, holding 3.037 million shares, accounting for 11.58% of the circulation; ICBC Frontier Medical is the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 1 million shares, accounting for 3.81% of the outstanding shares. Gülen's shareholding has exceeded the 10% cap, and the number of shares held is more than 3 times that of Zhao Bei, even so, let's see which fund this big bull stock contributes more.
According to the closing price of 519.90 on June 30, Medici accounted for 3.127133% of the Sino-European medical and health portfolio, while Medici accounted for 4.14527188% in the ICBC frontier medical portfolio. Since June 30, as of the close of trading on September 17, Medici has risen by 43.62%, Medici's net worth contribution to CEIBS Healthcare is 1.364%, and Medici's net value contribution to ICBC Frontier Medical care is 1.808%. Although the number of Medicis held by CEIBS Healthcare is more than 3 times that of ICBC Frontier Medical, and has exceeded the upper limit of the fund's single-share position, the net value contribution of this big bull stock to CEIBS Medical Healthcare is still 0.444% less than that of ICBC Frontier Medical, which is caused by the typical excessive size of the fund.
Medici is just a typical, the mid-report shows that both funds hold more than a hundred stocks, this year's market is extremely differentiated, there are not many stocks that perform well this year, fewer stocks that perform well in an industry, when good stocks are found, the size of the fund will affect the final return, because there is a double ten limit.
Third, Gülen not only manages medical funds but also manages technology funds Zhao Bei focuses on pharmaceutical investment
The 5 funds managed by Gülen, CEIBS Healthcare and CEIBS Medical Innovation, focus on investment in the pharmaceutical industry, and all the top ten heavy stocks are pharmaceutical industry companies. However, the three funds of CEIBS Alpha, CEIBS Mingrui and CEIBS Research Selection are involved in electrical equipment, food and beverage, electronics, chemicals, textiles and clothing, Internet, media and other industries.
Zhao Bei managed the top ten heavy stocks of the 5 funds, except for Hang Oxygen Shares, Taihe New Materials, Shandong Heda, which are not in the pharmaceutical industry, all other positions are in the pharmaceutical industry, and Zhao Bei is more focused on investment in the pharmaceutical industry.
A person's energy is limited, time is limited, physical strength is limited, when involved in too many industries, the depth of research and responsiveness to a single industry will definitely decline, and focusing on an industry investment, for the industry changes and company changes will be more sensitive.
This year, Gülen lags behind Zhao Bei by 17% Is Gülen not ok?
The performance of CEIBS Medical Health managed by Gülen is 17% behind Zhao Bei this year, is it that Gülen is not good? Of course not, because this year's market is extremely differentiated, the large-cap blue-chip is weak, and the small-cap stocks are extremely active, which is not good for Gülen, but this year's market style is destined not to last long, and it will turn to balance in the future. When the big blue chips return, perhaps Gülen's spring will come again.
In general, Gülen and Zhao Bei are very good fund managers, and a fund manager cannot be evaluated by short-term performance, and should take a long-term view.
Gülen is still very good this year to get a 16.46% excess return
From another point of view, as of the close of September 16, the CSI 300 has fallen by 7.74% this year, the CSI Pharmaceutical Index has fallen by 11.54%, and the CEIBS Medical Health managed by Gülen has risen by 4.92%, far outperforming the previous two indexes, compared with the pharmaceutical index with a excess return of 16.46%. This income is already very good, because it is a pharmaceutical theme fund, and companies can only be selected in the pharmaceutical industry, so do not compare this fund with new energy, nor with steel, coal and chemical ETFs, there is no comparison.
In a weak market environment, it is not easy to create positive returns and excess returns of more than 16% for the people, and Gülen is still the excellent Gülen, or the Lanlan in the hearts of the kippers.