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On Monday, the three major A-share indexes opened with mixed gains and losses, and then the trend diverged. The two cities continued to diverge in the afternoon, the Shanghai index was sideways, and the Kechuang 50 index fell nearly 3% intraday. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 39th consecutive trading day. As of the close, the Shanghai index reported 3715.37 points, up 0.33%; the Shenzhen component index reported 14705.83 points, down 0.45%; the Chuangxin index reported 3194.27 points, down 1.17%.
The index rose and fell today and closed with each other, the Shanghai index did a narrow range around 3700 points, and the ChiNext board fell below 3200 points, what will happen next? Wolf Marshal Chen Hao sorted out the main inflow and outflow for everyone in the latest live broadcast, as well as bring professional analysis from the macro side! Rich coffee selection, be sure to take a look!
Chen Hao
The market has to buy one to sell one, buy two to sell two, the top is the pressure order, the bottom is the pallet, under normal circumstances, the pressure order, off the order are very thick, there are buys and sells, the stock price is difficult to move - there is a pressure single blocking upward movement, and there is a single drop dragged down. But what is the scene of the top-class track and the bullfrog track? You will find that everyone is grabbing, this grab constitutes that the bottom is empty, and everyone can only quote the price if they want to buy, otherwise they can't buy it. There is a small institution that sells, and does not sell much to find that there is no floor, and the more cattle stock there is, the less floor there is. (The exception of the stop-and-go board, the up-stop board is squeezed there because it is above) So the small institutions run with the retail households; the retail households run with the medium-sized institutions and begin to enter the stampede.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="27" > market analysis</h1>
In the recent quarter, I gave you a report plate, the main focus on buying is lithium batteries, small metals, new materials, Ningde era concept, Tesla concept, photovoltaic concept; in the past six months, it is the main force to buy lithium batteries, new materials, nuclear energy, nuclear power; and then more long ago was the main construction of the concept plate or lithium batteries, the second is phosphorus chemical, the third is new materials, the fourth is Ningde era, the main plate is non-ferrous metals, phosphorus chemicals, new materials, small metals, new energy vehicles, central enterprises state-owned assets reform ...
Continue looking at the scatter chart of the quarterly fund. What is bullfrog track? The current bullfrog track is lithium battery, Tesla concept, Ningde era concept and electrical equipment main, energy storage concept, new energy and fine chemical main business, salt lake lithium concept, photovoltaic, new materials, new energy vehicles, sodium-ion batteries (note that the proportion of sodium-ion batteries is now quite high, up to 9%)... And then what is the sand sculpture track? That is to say, these tracks have been held in the past quarter, and what has become the unlucky fund is medical treatment, alcohol, medical equipment, super brands, e-commerce, and basically large consumption plus medical treatment.
The expectation for next week and next month is that lithium batteries will not die for the time being, because the new track has not been formed. Wine, as long as it rebounds, will definitely be stepped on by others, which is completely predictable: the track and individual stocks that have been deeply fallen must wash away those who are not firm, as long as there are speculators inside, Moutai stocks cannot reach a new high.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="28" > macro analysis</h1>
We continue to look at the money supply M2, since the announcement of the "authority L", the vertical edge of the L has been pulled down, pulled until June 2018 to see 8%, so the "authority L" definition of the normal value of the money supply is between 8% and 8.5%, and it is not correct to say that "M2 exceeds expectations and is low expectations" later.
The year-on-year growth rate of residents' deposits has dropped to 11%, and when it has dropped to 8%, it has entered the norm, and now household deposits are still relatively high; government deposits have only increased by 3.1% year-on-year, and now everyone's life is good, that is, the government is living a tight life.
Household loans showed an abnormal increase in February 2021, an increase of 16.38% year-on-year, and has now been corrected, the current growth rate is 14.33%, so how to comment on this value? The 14% growth rate of resident loans is far more than the wage level, it must be reduced, you will see a continuous decline in year-on-year growth, and the business model of desperately lending money to the people is not a model of common prosperity.
In the long run, these parameters are to grow synchronously, not one too high, and residents should not pull GDP through personal debt. So how to evaluate the macro aspect of our economy? It is to first calibrate an L-shaped bottom, and then let the parameters move closer to the bottom, and the economy will be straightened out, so the macro aspect of China in the next 12 years is simply summarized as eight words called "Guotai Min'an, wind and rain".
The index may rise again, the track will not change too much, sand sculpture or sand sculpture, bullfrog or bullfrog, the real change we have not just captured - because there is no new influential track formation, the demand for institutional exchange is not large, so the requirements for the liquidity of the stock market are not particularly large. If we find a new track today, the index will be lower first, because the institutional exchange requires liquidity; if the liquidity is insufficient, then the early bullfrog track will crash and stomp, and then suppress the institutional exchange to maintain the balance of liquidity.