Since Tsai Ing-wen's re-election as Taiwan's leader last year, cross-strait relations have entered the most dangerous phase in decades.
In particular, after the US Biden administration took office, it did not want to improve sino-US relations that were seriously damaged by Trump's trade war, but instead frequently rubbed the edge of the Taiwan Strait issue and provoked China's bottom line.
Now that both the Chinese government and the military have made it clear that they have "zero tolerance" for U.S. interference in the Taiwan Strait, the people's demand for a short-term settlement of the Taiwan issue is also getting louder and louder.
Tsai Ing-wen
In the midst of the clamor for killing on the mainland, the Taiwan authorities will naturally not be completely unresponsive.
The Taiwan independence forces represented by Tsai Ing-wen cover their ears and swear bells to reassure the people that Taiwan is safe and that the Taiwan military has the ability to "defend" Taiwan; on the other hand, they try to pull more countries into the water and stir up the situation in the Taiwan Strait in an attempt to protect themselves.
Ironically, however, the United States has already told Taiwan independence elements in actual action in Afghanistan that the lackeys that have lost their use value will certainly be completely discarded, and even if they can escape from Taiwan, they will certainly have no place to stay.
Therefore, if Tsai Ing-wen and the like do not repent in time, once the PLA attacks Taiwan, it will inevitably make it impossible for them to escape, have nowhere to hide, and wait for death.
The United States withdraws troops from Afghanistan
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="6" > Kabul has dealt a fierce blow to Taiwan independence confidence at all times, and it is completely wishful thinking to seek self-respect by foreigners</h1>
In 1999, Taiwan leader Lee Teng-hui openly threw out the two-state theory[1] challenging the "1992 Consensus." After the reform and opening up, cross-strait relations have once again fallen into a period of turmoil.
Today, Tsai Ing-wen and the like can so dare to toss on the brink of death, which is nothing more than thinking that they have the three major chips of public opinion, military strength and friendship.
Over the past 20 -odd years, the Taiwan independence forces have become more and more powerful in Taiwan, and the feelings of the new generation of Taiwanese toward the mainland have become worse and worse. It can be said that coercing public opinion has become a major capital for the DPP authorities to openly promote Taiwan independence.
At the beginning of the new century, Taiwan had a series of advanced naval and air force equipment, such as F16 fighters, Mirage 2000 fighters, and Lafayette-class stealth frigates obtained from the West, which made the argument of "resisting reunification by force" on the island of Taiwan very rampant for a time.
Lafayette-class stealth frigate
However, after 2010, with the great improvement of the PLA's equipment level, the equipment advantage that the Taiwan military once relied on was gone. Therefore, the Taiwan independence elements pinned their hopes on the UNITED States' suppression of China, in a vain attempt to carry foreign self-respect in the event of a conflict between the two sides of the strait, and to rely on the strength of the United States and Japan to prevent the People's Liberation Army from attacking Taiwan.
At present, the public opinion chips on which Taiwan independence elements rely are extremely unreliable, and they can even use lines from a famous movie to summarize "who wins, who they help."
The second heavy chip has become more and more unreliable because Taiwan has repeatedly suffered setbacks in its self-developed weapons and arms purchases over the years.
After the Trump administration took office in 2016, it launched a trade war against China, so that The Taiwan independence forces have pinned all their hopes on the third chip of relying on foreign aid.
But this year, they have encountered an unprecedented collapse of confidence.
Trump
When the United States began a massive withdrawal from Afghanistan in July, no one expected the Taliban regime to be able to counterattack so quickly. And after the Taliban began to take the capital of Afghanistan in a row, the United States still insisted very hard that it would not abandon the Afghan government.
As a result, by August 15, the aid of the Americans was delayed, and the head of Kabul had changed the flag of the king.
Although the top echelons of the Afghan government, led by Ghani, were allowed to leave after a peaceful transfer of power to the Taliban, more ordinary Afghans who had worked with the U.S. military and the Afghan government rushed into Kabul International Airport in fear of reprisals.
So after the end of the Vietnam War, a scene that made the US empire lose face occurred. While the United States has sent large transport planes to airlift Afghans who meet the visa requirements out of Afghanistan, many more want to hitchhike.
The United States withdraws troops from Afghanistan
But americans are by no means saviors, and they have never thought of benefiting ordinary Afghans.
As a result, people kept falling off the take-off planes or being forcibly removed by the US military. The current level of media development is far from being comparable to that of the Vietnam War, and the world has seen first-hand how the United States treats its own lackeys.
Of course, the people of Taiwan will not pretend to be blind, and some people say sarcastically: Although it is some Afghans who have lost their lives now, it is indeed those stubborn Taiwan independence elements in Taiwan who have lost their confidence.
After the "Kabul Moment" occurred, Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen authorities were anxious like ants on a hot pot, constantly speaking out to supporters through the media: stressing that Taiwan is not Afghanistan, Taiwan has special interests in the United States, and the United States will not give up Taiwan at any time.
Afghans fleeing the Taliban regime
Recently, Tsai Ing-wen personally wrote an article published in the bimonthly magazine of the US "Diplomacy" newspaper, "accusing the mainland of "never giving up its ambitions for Taiwan" and accusing PLA warplanes of "invading the airspace of southwest Taiwan almost every day last year."
Tsai also warned friendly countries from a high place that if Taiwan falls, it will be a catastrophe for regional peace and the entire democratic alliance system. This is really when the dog returns the lesson to the owner, ignorant and arrogant and pitiful.
But clear-eyed people can see that Tsai Ing-wen is completely deceiving people. In the face of the Taliban, which is far inferior to its own combat strength, the US military has chosen Mingzhe to protect itself; so why should the Americans take advantage of the fire in the face of the Increasingly Powerful People's Liberation Army?
If the United States does not support Taiwan at all, and the Taiwan independence elements refuse to surrender, then the only way is to escape from Taiwan like some Afghans.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="14" > prejudge the escape route of Taiwan independence elements, and the PLA will certainly wait for it</h1>
Chinese people have absolutely no mercy for the Taiwan independence elements, and many people advocate that after the reunification of Taiwan, they should be punished with the most severe punishment. But the desire of these people to survive must not be underestimated.
If the two sides of the strait really come to the day when the earth shakes and the mountains are shaken, although a very small number of people will choose to resist to the end, more people will certainly choose to run away as much as possible.
We must never forget how the high-ranking Kuomintang generals ran away in the face of the PLA's offensive.
For example, when the "King of Qinghai" Ma Bufang besieged Lanzhou, he fled by plane with the three tons of gold he had looted. Now there is only one last isolated island left in Taiwan, and once the People's Liberation Army attacks Taiwan, they will have nowhere to go. Therefore, if Taiwan independence elements want to run, there are probably only three ways.
"Qinghai King" Ma Bufang
The first is to leave Taiwan in a legal and normal way before the PLA has even started. Like some corrupt officials, they will first open a leather bag company abroad, and then slowly transfer their ill-gotten wealth.
Once the two sides of the strait reached the most tense moment, they left Taiwan on civil flights under various public or private pretexts.
If this really happens, the PLA really can't intercept it. And after the war, if they are held accountable, they can also use the "resistance in the pseudo-government" to whitewash themselves.
civil aviation
But if they go this early, it will undoubtedly trigger a domino effect.
Originally, the Taiwan independence elements and their supporters had little confidence in defending Taiwan by force, and their sneaking away proved their incompetence even more.
The PLA cannot sit idly by and will certainly act in advance. However, many Taiwan independence elements want to make a final profit before the last moment arrives, and I am afraid that they will miss the last plane; therefore, before the PLA really begins to attack Taiwan, there should not be many people who can escape on a civil aviation charter plane.
Taiwan Airlines
The second way to escape is to borrow military aircraft. If we look at the map, we can see that the Japanese island of Yonaguni can be reached more than 110 kilometers east of Taiwan,[3] where you can even see Taiwan in good weather.
And once the People's Liberation Army really begins to attack Taiwan by force, the United States and Japan cannot sit idly by and will certainly send military aircraft and warships to the vicinity of Taiwan. Under such circumstances, then, Taiwan independence elements can fly to Yonaguni Island by helicopter or small plane, or even simply land on a US aircraft carrier.
But if the Taiwan independence elements run like this, it will be good news for the PLA. Because the escape route can be predicted in advance.
At that time, before I attacked Taiwan, I first forced the US aircraft carrier not to dare to approach, and then shot down all the aircraft that flew out of Taiwan Island, and as long as two planes were shot down, it would be able to deter the Taiwan independence elements who wanted to flee in the future.
Taiwan Provincial Military Aviation
The third way for Tsai Ing-wen and the like to escape is to take a submarine. After all, reconnaissance satellites and drones cannot see underwater targets, and the PLA also lacks strong aviation anti-submarine capabilities.
Therefore, if the United States and Japan send submarines into Taiwan ports to pick them up for evacuation when the People's Liberation Army is about to launch a large-scale offensive, it will be a really tricky trouble for our side.
Fortunately, there are only a few ports in Taiwan, and once the PLA ambushes outside the port in advance before it starts, it can also catch turtles in the urn.
U.S. submarines
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="22" > no one will like worthless outcasts, and Taiwan independence elements will run into walls everywhere even if they escape</h1>
Although all the Chinese do not want a Single Taiwan independence element to be able to run away when the People's Liberation Army attacks Taiwan, there is always a gap in Baimi. There is still no guarantee that there will be senior officials at the level of Tsai Ing-wen who will eventually succeed in entering other countries.
Because of the gap in national strength, we cannot force other countries to make unconditional concessions like the United States. This may also be the last bit of luck for Tsai Ing-wen when they face the abandonment of their allies. But they will not be greeted by a decent life, but by endless torture.
Both Taiwan independence elements and some pro-US figures on the mainland advocate that running away to the United States will have a promising future; they like to cite two examples to prove that exile in the United States is to enjoy happiness.
One is that people who fled from the mainland to Taiwan before 1949 ended up "enjoying the blessings." Then there is the fact that in 1975, the Vietnamese who fled from Saigon to the United States were "blessed". So now, if Taiwan independence activists and their supporters can successfully escape the PLA's obstruction and enter the United States and Japan, they can also enjoy a heavenly life.
The most powerful response to such shameless words is six words, this time, another time.
A considerable proportion of the people who fled to Taiwan in 1949 were landlord capitalists carrying ill-gotten gains looted from the mainland. It is precisely because they brought the wealth of the mainland to Taiwan that they have achieved their so-called happy life.
The Vietnamese who fled to the United States in 1975 had many Vietnamese elites, and the United States at that time was lacking cheap labor, so they showed great interest in the arrival of this group of Vietnamese. This is the same logic as the British authorities in Hong Kong in the 1960s and 1970s who acquiesced and even connived at the mainlanders to flee Hong Kong.
In 1975, South Vietnamese soldiers boarded a ship and fled
But now everything has changed, and the countries that were able to take in Vietnamese and even Afghans will no longer give Taiwan independence elements a good look. For countries that are likely to accept Taiwan independence elements, Japan is currently facing a serious aging problem; it may be a good idea to obtain cheap labor by accepting Taiwan independence elements.
But because Japan and China are so close together, no Japanese politician would dare to risk angering the mainland to take in this group of bereaved dogs.
Moreover, under the current political and economic system, these Taiwan independence elements may not be able to take away much money from Taiwan to make a name for themselves.
Therefore, for Taiwan independence elements, the greatest hope is still to flee to the United States. Whether it is transiting through Japan first, or landing directly on the US aircraft carrier. But for the United States, Taiwan, now under the control of Taiwan independence elements, is the most uncomfortable pain point for China.
Lee
As long as they are still in Taiwan, China's rise will be affected, which is also their greatest use of the United States. However, once the day comes when the PLA attacks Taiwan by force, if these Taiwan independence elements hold the idea that "Han and thieves are not opposed" and fight a bloody battle with the PLA to the end.
Then for the United States, they can still play one last bit of value; that is, to make the whole of Taiwan a mess, so that the mainland has reunified Taiwan but bears huge economic losses and moral costs. But if they did not resist at all and ran to the United States, they would completely lose their meaning to the United States.
We can ask a simple question about what these Taiwan independence elements can do when they arrive in the United States.
Continue to attack the mainland regime with a pen, or establish a government-in-exile in the United States to counter-attack Taiwan?
Since exile in the United States has become worthless, why should shrewd American politicians take them in?
The scene of the disturbance
In fact, although the U.S. government has been hosting so-called "Chinese political refugees" for more than a decade, immigration officials have long expressed great dissatisfaction with the tragic stories that these people have made up to come to the United States for welfare; many of them have even been repatriated to China during the Trump era.
Although it is difficult to implement such racially charged decrees when the Democratic government comes to power, these non-Caucasians are certainly not welcome. Both the United States and Japan have to consider retaliation from the mainland for taking in these Taiwan independence elements.
In particular, considering the tangled relationship between Japan and the Taiwan independence elements, as well as the new hatred and old hatred on the Diaoyu Dao issue, Japan's admission of them is likely to trigger a Sino-Japanese war. And the United States does not want to take in these useless outcasts, and give China more reasons to impose trade sanctions on the United States.
Diaoyu Islands
Therefore, if these Taiwanese can escape the resistance of the People's Liberation Army, the most likely thing is to be fooled by the United States to go to Japan first, and then transfer them to a third country as soon as possible. In this way, the contradictions between China, the United States, and Japan can be resolved for the time being.
So where are these Taiwan independence elements likely to end up? The first to send to the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and other european powers is unlikely. These countries also have to consider the adverse impact that if they are taken in, they will have on economic and trade relations with China.
The likelihood of sending them to the poor countries of Africa is extremely low. Not to mention that these people are used to being pampered and superior in Taiwan, and they simply cannot adapt to a bad life. China's influence in Africa is enough to make them run into walls everywhere.
Backward African countries
Even Australia, which has a very high anti-China enthusiasm, may not take them in, after all, they cannot afford the economic cost. The small European countries that have been brainless and anti-Russian in recent years may become a place for them, after all, China cannot cross Russia to sanction these small countries that have little economic and trade relations with China.
Then there are the small countries that are partly latino that are tightly controlled by the United States and have very general relations with China. But even if these people go to these small countries, they will no longer be able to enjoy the so-called heavenly life.
Even if the crime is extremely heinous, we can send special agents to eliminate it. After all, these small countries have limited strength, cannot have enough power, and have no will to protect them.
Africa
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="34" > the Taiwanese army whose combat effectiveness is pulled, and the counterattack is your last chance to make meritorious contributions</h1>
In fact, on the one hand, the Taiwan independence elements hope that the anti-China forces in the West can stand in the same camp as themselves, and on the other hand, they are also very afraid of the possible beheading operation of the PLA. It has long been reported on the Internet that Tsai Ing-wen and others responded to the PEOPLE's Liberation Army's sudden attack on Taiwan.
The so-called "president" often practices how to escape, which is a big joke all over the world. Judging from the available information, when the PLA attacked Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen and other Taiwan independence elements immediately chose to flee to Taiwan's Hengshan command headquarters to command stubborn resistance; and used strong underground bunkers to resist possible air strikes and even nuclear strikes by the PLA.
It is obvious that the current contrast between the military strength of the two sides of the strait, especially the soldiers' will to fight, is a strong contrast. Even if Tsai Ing-wen hid in the hengshan underground headquarters in the morning, it was possible that they would become turtles in an urn in the afternoon.
If the Taiwan military has no intention of being cannon fodder, then even if the allies make a commitment to support at the first time, it will become meaningless to Tsai Ing-wen and the like. So in the end, they still have to try to escape, either through a secret underground passage to the airport, and then try to escape the island by aircraft, as analyzed above.
Either use the most primitive means of the Liberation War, that is, makeover and disguise. Taking advantage of the chaos created by the People's Liberation Army when it first entered Taiwan, it first evaded and then tried to escape.
Therefore, once our side attacks Taiwan by force, it must announce at the first time: If the Leader of Taiwan can take the initiative to surrender, it will not lose a position for the CPPCC National Committee. If we resist to the end, we will be severely punished.
Pla
At the same time, our side can publicly reward Tsai Ing-wen and the like, and call on Taiwan soldiers at a clear and real price. Anyway, this is also their last chance to make meritorious contributions, such as being able to capture Tsai Ing-wen Lite alive and Su Zhenchang first-class merit.
Of course, a reward order can also be issued to Taiwan's non-governmental figures, and if Tsai Ing-wen and others are found to have escaped in disguise, they can report to the People's Liberation Army in time to receive large bonuses.
Once our propaganda is in place, it will inevitably put everyone in danger for Taiwan independence elements, and as long as there is wind and grass in the vicinity, it will cause tension to death. Then they may not even have the courage to flee, so let's just tie their hands.
Pla
The Taiwan issue must be resolved, and whether the people on the other side want peace reunification or armed reunification, the PLA will cross the Taiwan Strait. It's just singing the song or braving the hail of bullets.
If it were for military reunification, Tsai Ing-wen and the like would either die on the way to escape, or be presented to the People's Liberation Army by the gendarmes and the people of Taiwan as a gift package on the road.
Therefore, if Tsai Ing-wen and the like do not want to die too ugly, it is better to persuade them to stop the horse from the cliff early. In this way, the PLA will be able to cross the Taiwan Strait a few years later, and they may be able to withdraw from the stage of history with dignity.
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="39" > references</h1>
[1] How Lee Teng-hui Concocted the "Two-State Theory" . Southern Net
[2] Satellites hit "Kabul Moment": crowds pour into the airport runway. International Online. 2021-08-18
[3] Japanese Emperor Akihito and his wife visited The westernmost island of Japan, Yonaguni Island, for the first time. World Wide Web. 2018-03-29