On October 14, 2021, with the dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives, Kishida Fumio, who has not even "warmed up" the prime minister's seat, also ended the 100th term of prime minister. As a result, the Kishida cabinet has also been ridiculed by the media as "the shortest-lived cabinet in history."
Of course, this is just a joke from the media. The term of office of this House of Representatives was about to expire, and Kishida's first task as president of the Liberal Democratic Party was to win the House election and ensure that the Self-Government League continued to govern.
However, behind the seemingly optimistic polls, can Kishida really have the last laugh?
It seems like the winner is in hand
With 465 seats in the House of Representatives, Kishida only needs more than 233 seats to continue to immerse himself in the joy of becoming prime minister.
Judging from the balance of forces in the political situation between the government and the opposition in Japan, all walks of life are convinced that the Self-Government Alliance will continue to govern, and the poll results of the Japanese media are also in line with the predictions of the outside world. For example, the Asahi Shimbun survey showed that 41% of the respondents were ready to vote for the LDP, the Komeito Party received 5% support, and the largest opposition party, the Cadet Democratic Party, had 13% support. Kyodo's findings also showed that 44.5 percent of respondents were prepared to vote for the LDP on a proportional vote, while the Cadets received only 14.9 percent of respondents.
From this point of view, Kishida seems to be able to smile and sing a toast in the face of the election.
The "Kishida color" is thin
However, in the seemingly suspenseful and undisturbed election, there was another wave under the surface of the water, which made it difficult for Kishida to laugh.
As president of the ruling party and prime minister of the Japanese government, Kishida Fumio should be the ultimate decision-maker in both political party and government roles. However, judging from the content of the LDP's election platform, it clearly reveals the faint imprint of "Kishida color".
According to The Nippon Shiji News Agency, there has been a fierce dispute between the prime minister's official residence (political) and the Liberal Democratic Party (party) over the formulation of the program, and from the result, it seems that a situation of "party high government and low government" has been formed. For example, when LDP Poll Leader Takashi Sanae announced the party's election platform on October 12, he openly admitted very rarely that "the presidential election platform for the prime minister has not been fully adopted." She noted that the prime minister could advance in the cabinet policies not covered by the campaign platform. But she also warned that "before proceeding, there will be a serious and thorough review of policies within the LDP."
Under this operation, the LDP's election platform greatly revised some of the economic and people's livelihood policies promoted by Kishida during the presidential election. For example, as an important part of the Reiwa Edition Income Doubling Program, Kishida has advocated providing more cost support to child-rearing families and increasing the income of groups such as nurses and nurses. However, this plan was not included in the LDP's campaign platform. In response, Yuichiro Tamaki, a representative of the National Democratic Party, teased: "The prime minister's income doubling plan has disappeared like a mirage." ”
Conservatives advocate conspicuousness
On the other hand, the policy ideas of the conservative faction within the Liberal Democratic Party, represented by Shinzo Abe, are conspicuous in the program. For example, the program talks about the so-called "China threat" and criticizes China's military activities.
Using this as an excuse, the program clearly proposes to fundamentally strengthen Japan's defense forces, including discussions on having the ability to attack enemy bases. Further, the Liberal Democratic Party(s) proposed in a policy set issued in conjunction with its campaign platform that "in order to increase defense spending, consideration could be given to raising it to more than 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)."
In this regard, even the ally Komeito Party has openly questioned the "defense cost multiplication plan." Komeito Party representative Natsuo Yamaguchi pointed out that "with the decline in birthrates and the aging of the population, there are high calls to invest funds in social security, education and child-rearing, but the LDP is determined to increase defense spending, and it has suddenly doubled. Natsuo Yamaguchi believes that the LDP's ideas will be difficult to gain popular support.
Coincidentally, even Koga Makoto, a former representative of kishida's Koikekai, said with concern that "former prime ministers Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso, who had a strong right-wing tendency, did contribute to the birth of the Kishida regime," but "if Kishida had to listen to them all the time, the cart before the horse would have been reversed."
All in all, in the face of the House election, Kishida Fumio can laugh to the end, but behind this smile is more or less bitter and helpless!
Cai Liang, Secretary-General and Researcher of the Center for Sino-Japanese Relations of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies
Source: Xinmin Evening News