The covid-19 pandemic is still breaking out around the world, with many countries still in a state of emergency, restrictions on travel for people, and closures in public places, so tourism around the world is basically at a standstill. Many investors, practitioners and consumers in the tourism industry have repeatedly pondered the same question, that is, when will the tourism industry return? Today I am here to judge when the tourism industry will resume from the perspective of tourism economics, so that everyone can pay attention to the signs of recovery, so as to grasp the opportunity and rhythm of the restart.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > the economic principles of tourism economic activity</h1>
From the perspective of economics, all economic activities arise from the contradiction between supply and market, which are opposites and unity. The same is true of tourism economic activity, which must have a tourism supply and a tourism market in order to generate tourism economic activity. Travel supply is the airline's flight slots, hotel rooms, restaurant food, tour group seats, cruise positions, etc., constituting a huge tourism supply chain. Today we see that the supply chain is basically fragmented and completely paralyzed. Look at the tourism market: the tourism industry serves people, the tourism market is tourists, there are many countries where the population is still in a state of self-isolation at home, and most of the world's population with tourism spending power is still seriously affected by enthusiasm and has not been able to obtain the opportunity to travel freely, so the tourism market is basically in a state of zero. At least the above two conditions must be restored to normal, and tourism economic activity can be revived.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > determine when the tourism economy will recover through tourism supply and market changes</h1>
Understanding the above principles of economics, we can judge when the tourism economy will recover according to the changes in some social phenomena. This time the new crown virus pneumonia epidemic is different from SARS, many people use SARS's experience to judge this epidemic, the prediction of tourism recovery, it is too naïve, it is not theory and practice attitude. This outbreak is far beyond SARS in terms of scope, contagiousness and persistence. The Government of Canada reminds its citizens that it is difficult to resume normal social activities in the past without inventing an effective vaccine to prevent THE NEW CORONAVIRUS pneumonia. Although the state has resumed work and production, there are still many restrictions. For example, social distancing requires two meters, a 56-seat bus, can only take 12 tourists, etc., are all disadvantages that seriously affect tourism activities. The conclusion is that without normal social activities, there can be no recovery of the tourism economy, because the supply and market of the tourism economy are far from being restarted and recovered. This process takes at least a year and a half, so everyone should be fully prepared.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > if the tourism economy begins to recover, how to grasp the rhythm of restart? </h1>
The recovery of tourism economic activities will have certain precursors, and sufficient conditions will be created before the recovery can begin. There will be some iterations after the beginning, so that the economic system can be fully run-in before explosive growth occurs. Specifically, when the epidemic basically subsides, new cases occasionally occur sporadically in a certain local area, and cars, boats, planes, and buses fully resume normal operations, which is a precursor to the imminent restart of tourism economic activities. As a participant in tourism economic activities, at this time, you can find your own positioning, recognize your own development direction, seize the opportunity of this restart, start again, and hope to achieve an ideal development goal in this unprecedented tourism economic eruption. In this process, there may be one or two iterations, because there are many new policies, new measures, new forms of tourism activities, new combinations appear, and there needs to be a certain period of running-in. Therefore, when the restart starts, you must master the rhythm, find the positioning and direction, and then you can devote yourself to it.
The development of tourism economic activities must be the same as other economic activities, which will follow the general economic laws. This is determined by the inherent and inevitable connection of various factors in tourism economic activities, and only by conscientiously studying and mastering the laws of these economic activities can we grasp the rhythm and achieve greater development.