Although scientists can make some fairly accurate predictions about the future, predicting what the earth will look like in 500 years is a difficult task because there are many factors at play. Imagine Christopher Columbus in 1492 trying to predict america today.
There are two dominant processes that change our planet: one involves natural cycles, such as the way the Earth rotates and orbits the sun; and the other is caused by life forms, especially humans.
The Earth itself is moving
The earth is constantly changing.
It's shaking, its tilt angle is changing, and even its orbit is changing, which would make the Earth closer or farther from the sun. These changes occur over tens of thousands of years, and they are responsible for ice ages.
As far as geology is concerned, five hundred years is not a long time.
Humanity is changing the planet
The second biggest impact on Earth is living things. The impact of life on Earth is harder to predict. Destroying one part of an ecosystem can throw many other things out of balance.
Humans, in particular, are changing the planet in many ways.
Deforestation and destruction of important wildlife habitats to build cities and grow crops. Moving invasive species around the planet disrupts ecosystems.
In addition, human activities have contributed to global warming. The resulting climate change – mainly through the burning of fossil fuels – releases more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the Earth and the atmosphere can withstand.
Typically, greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun like the glass of a greenhouse, keeping the planet warmer than elsewhere. This can be useful – until we get too much.
The result of too much carbon dioxide is a rise in temperature, which can lead to dangerously hot summers and melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica. Melting ice raises the oceans, causing coastal areas to be submerged.
That's what the planet is facing right now. These changes could lead to a very different planet 500 years from now, depending largely on how willing humans are to change their way of life. A warming planet can also contribute to extreme weather such as heat waves, storms and droughts, which in turn alter the land. All biological forms on Earth are at risk.
Learn from the last 500 years
Looking back over the past 500 years, the biological part of The Planet — the biosphere — has changed dramatically.
The number of humans has increased from about 500 million to more than 7.5 billion today. During this period, more than 800 plant and animal species have gone extinct due to human activities. As the human population grows, the living space of other species becomes smaller and smaller. Rising sea levels mean less land, and rising temperatures will allow many species to migrate to a better climate.
Not all earth changes are caused by humans, but humans have made some of them worse. One of the main challenges today is getting people to stop doing problem-causing things, such as burning fossil fuels that contribute to climate change. This is a global problem that requires the nations and peoples of the world to work towards the same goal.
Back in Christopher Columbus, he might not be able to imagine a highway full of cars or a mobile phone. Technology will undoubtedly improve over the next 500 years. But so far, technological solutions have not scaled up enough to address climate change. Continuing to do the same thing and expecting someone else to solve the mess in the future will be a risky, expensive gamble.
As a result, the Earth could become unrecognizable in 500 years. Or if humans are willing to change their behavior, it may continue to exist for many centuries with its most successful inhabitants, with its vibrant forests, oceans, fields, and cities.