According to Taiwan's "ETtoday News Cloud" reported on May 27, Taiwan health experts analyzed that according to the current epidemic numbers, there are "a large number of confirmed black numbers" in Taiwan, and the current number of confirmed cases may only be the "tip of the iceberg", and the severe case rate may already be higher than that in Japan.
In front of the emergency room of a hospital in Taiwan ("ETtoday News Cloud" photo)
Lin Shibi, a former physician in the Department of Infectious Diseases at National Taiwan University, and Robin Chow, a researcher at the Institute of Infectious Diseases and Vaccines at the Taiwan Institutes of Health, analyzed the epidemic situation in Taiwan on television. Zhou Yanhong said that from the chart of the number of confirmed cases released by the Epidemic Command Center of the Taiwan authorities, it can be seen that the slope of the graph before May 17 is very high, which means that the epidemic situation has not been well controlled, and the next graph should show an exponential upward trend, but at present, the data after the 17th looks relatively flat.
Zhou Yanhong went on to say that the current basic infection number of the new crown virus in Taiwan R0 is calculated as 5 (one person will be infected with the virus to 5 people), and the confirmed data on the 17th is 526 cases multiplied by 5, that is, the people diagnosed on the 17th will infect about 2500 people. But now, adding up the number of confirmed cases after the 17th, there are more than 2,500 people, and the epidemic is on the verge of being controlled.
Taiwan United Press Cartography
Usually when the data is controllable, the histogram will slowly decline, and now the graph cannot decline, Zhou Yanhong pointed out that the main reason is that the number of confirmed cases is "a lot of black numbers", these people may continue to spread the epidemic when they contact others, and only by finding out the "black number" can they successfully control the epidemic.
Lin Shibi also agrees with this point of view, he introduced that He Meixiang, a scholar at the Taiwan Research Institute, has pushed back the current potential cases in Taiwan through severe cases, and if the proportion of severe cases is 5% to 10%, it will be found that there are many denominators that have not yet been diagnosed, which means that these people are "outside, have not yet mastered" people, and may continue to be infected.
Frontline healthcare workers in Taiwan ("ETtoday News Cloud" photo)
Lin Shibi said that Japan recently announced the extension of the third wave of emergencies, the number of severe cases is a new high in a year, a total of 1300 people; and as of the 26th, Taiwan's severe cases are 378 people, in terms of population ratio, the number of severe cases per 100,000 people is higher than Japan, which is a "quite scary" value.
Lin Shibi also pointed out that the Taiwan authorities epidemic command center often holds a press conference with a chart, but at present, Taiwan's virus detection capacity is limited, and many people want to detect but cannot be ranked, so the chart cannot show the real situation of the epidemic situation in Taiwan, and the current number of confirmed cases in Taiwan is only the tip of the iceberg, which means that there are still many confirmed "black numbers".
(Editor: YZM)