Dan Bin, who has always been active in front of the screen as an investment tycoon, would never have imagined that 20 years after his debut, he would come to the spotlight because of a war of words.
The incident stemmed from Ye Fei, a former private equity champion, who suddenly blew himself up after disappearing a few years later, "participating in zhongyuan home market value management and being deceived". Taking advantage of the fermentation of the incident due to media dissemination, Ye Fei opened several live broadcasts in a row for several days, and broke the news that 18 listed companies were suspected of manipulating stock prices.
On May 15, Ye Fei suddenly and publicly called out to Lin Yuan, Dan Bin, Wang Yawei, Dong Baozhen and other private equity bigwigs to testify and stand for his "act of righteousness".
In this regard, Wang Yawei and Lin Yuan chose to remain silent, but Bin quickly came out to clear up the relationship and sent several microblogs to show his attitude.
Suddenly, public opinion was in an uproar.
On the evening of May 18, Dong Baozhen, who had been silent for a long time, suddenly spoke up and supported Ye Fei, pushing Dan Bin, who was on the sidelines, into a more embarrassing situation.
In the face of this "flying" disaster, But Bin's sentence "I don't know Ye Fei" has attracted a lot of controversy.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="161" >01</h1>
In the past week, for the capital market, it can be described as not "lively", and the Ye Fei incident has caused an uproar in the A-share market. Ye Fei has also received unprecedented attention and has gained a large number of fans with his "act of righteousness". The CSRC responded quickly and announced the filing and investigation of the "Ye Fei Report Incident".
Investors are watching soap operas and waiting for developments.
Perhaps in order to attract greater attention and take the opportunity to become an Internet celebrity, on the afternoon of May 15, Ye Fei publicly called out Wang Yawei, Dan Bin and others to testify and make the inside story of the industry public. At the same time, a group photo with Dan Bin was posted. In this photo, there are three men, but Bin dominates the C position, and Ye Fei stands close to him.
(Weibo screenshot, Left is Ye Fei, middle is Dan Bin)
Dan Bin, who was on a business trip in Yantai, saw the situation and immediately sent a text to clear his relationship with him, saying that he did not know Ye Fei, "just took a group photo at the event."
On the morning of May 16, Dan Bin once again posted that Oriental Harbor only invests in blue-chip companies with large market capitalization, which is different from Ye Feidao, and at the same time revealed his views on bookmakers in his autobiography.
As soon as this article came out, what Dan Bin did not expect was that he dug a pit for himself.
Under that Weibo comment, many netizens left messages calling him a hypocrite. Others believe that this incident directly pushed the god in his heart - But Bin pushed down the altar, "it seems that the rose of time is only worthy of throwing into the trash can.".
For Dan Bin's denial, Ye Fei shouted directly: Yue Buqun, who opened his eyes and said nonsense, I was the champion that year, but what is Bin? Don't know or take a group photo? Take a taxi together?
Between the two of you and me, the smell of gunpowder is full of gunpowder. Ye Fei chose to continue to "attack" on Weibo, while Dan Bin counterattacked by forwarding netizens' strong messages.
Just when the two sides were tense, Dong Baozhen, who had been silent for many days, suddenly publicly supported Ye Fei. "Ye Fei is seeking public interests for the capital market, and the remarks made by many leading figures are completely unable to speak out for the public interests of the world, but Bin is not qualified to despise Ye Fei."
The original 1V1 war situation was quickly reversed to 1V2.
At noon on May 19, under the questioning of the media, But Bin posted that he responded to this matter for the last time: there is no intersection with Ye Fei, and if Ye Fei can expose more and more information based on facts, he can return the market to a clear. At the same time, Dan Bin said that "things are clustered in groups and people are divided into groups", will not deal with people who are famous, live a simple life, and he is one of the most transparent fund managers in China.
The farce that lasted for 4 days ended with Dan Bin's final speech.
But Dan Bin, who has always been calm and calm, seemed quite anxious this time.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="162" >02, Danbin and Maotai</h1>
When it comes to Dan Bin, the first thing that everyone thinks of is Maotai.
Traversing the capital market for 30 years, But Bin seems to have formed a deep binding with Moutai. Singing many Times Maotai has also gained a wave of heat for it. Nowadays, Dan Bin's Weibo fans have exceeded 14 million, and this number of fans, even in the entertainment industry, is a proper top stream.
According to Dan Bin, as early as 2003, he noticed the investment opportunity in Moutai.
At that time, the stock price of Moutai was about 20 yuan, and the market value was only 8 billion yuan. At that time, he was the chief investment manager of Dapeng Securities, and he once suggested to the company's leaders to buy Moutai and Wuliangye. However, the leaders generally believed that the plates of Moutai and Wuliangye were too large, the yield would not be high, and the cost of funds might be covered, so Dapeng Securities did not participate.
In 2001, after Dan Bin's success in Hong Kong stocks, he reorganized his investment philosophy and began to pay attention to value investment.
He found that a good company should be a company with a long and stable operating history, a high degree of competitive barriers, financial soundness, abundant free cash flow, and able to understand and grasp it. And Moutai happens to have all the characteristics and is a rare high-quality asset.
In Dan Bin's view, Moutai is as precious as liquid gold. "As long as the Chinese wine culture remains unchanged, Moutai with extremely low winemaking costs will be able to continuously generate cash flow." Moutai has a wide enough moat in the commercial field, and the operating barriers are high enough, which ensures the monopolistic enterprise characteristics of Moutai. And unlike fully competitive enterprises, where the leadership determines the life and death of the enterprise, as far as the leaders are concerned, Moutai is more resistant to impact.
However, even if Dan Bin discovered the enduring "mystery" of Moutai, as a migrant worker, he still had no right to speak. Unwilling to be restrained by the company any longer, he chose to stand on his own.
In March 2004, Dan Bin established Oriental Harbor Investment Company. At that time, A shares were in the midst of a bear market, and issuing funds at this time was tantamount to "selling popsicles in winter". For the sake of insurance, But Bin did not raise funds publicly, but found some friends and got a start-up capital.
Gaining the trust of friends was a tiger for Dan Bin at the time, and he took the optimistic company into his pocket. From 2004 to 2007, Dan Bin successively bought Moutai in A-shares, Yunnan Baiyao, Zhangyu Red Wine, Yantai Wanhua, and Hong Kong stocks invested in Tencent and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
In the following decade, Dan Bin's confidence in Moutai underwent several rounds of testing.
In 2008 and 2013, when Moutai fell by 60% and 50% respectively, Oriental Harbor has not been sold, and it has practiced its preference for Moutai with actions.
In 2015, A shares experienced the most tragic dive, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5178.19 points, and panic filled the air above A shares. Like ordinary retail investors, Dan Bin sold most of his positions, and the long-held Moutai also sold at 220 yuan / share. A few months later, I bought it back at 260-280 yuan / share. But Bin began to continue to sing more Maotai and called on everyone to boldly build a position.
Due to his great success in Moutai and the possession of Moutai has become the most important label on Dan Bin,he tirelessly tells his story with Moutai. In Dan Bin's Weibo, the word "Maotai" can be seen everywhere. He has even publicly stated that if he has enough money, he will buy the whole Maotai.
But Bin has always shown a gentle and elegant image, and on his social networking sites, he can rarely see his criticism of his peers, and more is a positive and upward normal life. In addition to investment ideas, But Bin published the most is the daily life of running and traveling. But it was such a person who had done crazy things.
On May 21, 2017, Dan Bin once made a bet of 100 million yuan with someone to bet 600 yuan per share for whether Moutai stock price could stand. 5 months later, Moutai marched all the way and successfully stood on the 605 yuan mark. Today's Moutai has long been firmly on the 2,000 yuan mark, but Bin has won a steady victory.
In the book "The Rose of Time" (2018 update), Dan Bin uses a large space to introduce his insistence on Moutai. Once people have the corresponding label and continue to deepen their impression, it is difficult to be forgotten by others.
Recently, Dan Bin and Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, held a lianmai dialogue. During this time, he talked about the big hot stock - Tesla.
But Bin revealed that there was a layout when Tesla was relatively low at $90 / share. In 2018, he thought Tesla's stock price could rise to $600 per share. At that time, the international investment bank Damo was bearish on Tesla, believing that Tesla's stock price was only worth $10 per share.
Today, Tesla has already soared, reaching $900 per share at the beginning of this year. As of the close of trading on May 20, Tesla closed at $586.78 per share. But Bin's unique vision has once again been confirmed by the market.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="163" >03, counterattack life</h1>
Although today's Dan Bin has become famous in the capital market, the first half of his life does not seem to be smooth.
In 1967, Dan Bin was born in Dongyang City, Zhejiang Province, and just turned three years old, he followed his parents to the Kaifeng Fertilizer Factory in Henan To support the construction of the interior. At the age of 17, he was admitted to Henan University to major in sports theory. During his time in school, Dan Bin knew nothing about the stock market, and if there were no accidents, he would stay in school and become a physical education teacher.
But God made a joke with him.
In 1990, after graduating, Dan Bin was unable to stay on to teach for some reasons. The sudden change caught him off guard, and in desperation, he only had to work as a fitter in the Kaifeng Fertilizer Factory.
From the pride of heaven to the "migrant boy", but Bin instantly felt a huge gap. During that time, he often asked himself, "Do you want to spend your whole life here?" But he knew that such a life was not what he wanted.
In August 1992, Dan Bin settled in Shenzhen with the help of friends. As a pioneer of capital market reform, the stock trend has swept through Shenzhen, and the national stock speculation has gradually become the mainstream.
That year, buffett's stake in GM, 62, soared from $322 million to $491 million in half a year, adding some dreams to the title of "stock god." Dan Bin, who witnessed Buffett's legend, regarded it as his super idol and began to teach himself to invest.
(Buffett)
The power of idols is infinite, just half a year, but Bin has become a professional investor after hard work. In 1993, he joined an investment consulting firm as an analyst.
At that time, the market promoted technical analysis, but Bin soon became a member of the ultra-short line. Speculative short-term trading is certainly exciting, but this kind of play is tantamount to licking the blood from the knife edge, and the slightest carelessness will be full of losses.
Dan Bin, who thought he had no teacher, began to carry out large-scale operations. But the sudden succession of blows caused his account to be cleared several times. During this period, Dan Bin's investment philosophy changed several times and gradually moved towards value investment.
In 1993, due to listening to famous stock critics say that "deep house" had major benefits, but Bin put all his wealth on this company, and the result was that the stock price did not rise but fell, and the principal lost half. After this incident, he understood that the so-called experts could not be trusted.
Heartbroken on the stock market, Dan Bin decided to turn to the futures market, and in a short time he made 1 million funds to the order of 10 million. But coincidentally, he caught up with the "327 Treasury Bond Incident", and he lost another fine. This made Dan Bin realize that he had to learn to escape the risk, and he began to move towards the school of technical analysis.
In the years that followed, Dan Bin achieved good results through technical analysis, and he began to believe that technical analysis was omnipotent. At this time, "Huagong Technology" caught his attention. The company's technical and fundamental aspects are very good, and the price is also appropriate, but Bin quickly attacked, made a heavy hand, and lost half of the principal.
Seven years of detours, finally in exchange for Dan Bin's ability and cognition to improve, he entered Guotai Junan as an analyst. It was from then on that he came to realize the advantages of value investing.
In 2001, the dot-com bubble was raging, and the stock prices of NetEase, Sohu and Sina fell below 1 yuan. With a foundation in technical analysis, Dan Bin believes that a historic opportunity has arrived. Therefore, he suggested that the company buy, but his people were small and the opinion was not adopted.
Shortly after missing the excellent period of the US stock Internet, Dan Bin set his sights on Hong Kong listed companies: Tongrentang Technology, Nanjing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, Shenzhen Expressway and so on. This time the company adopted his suggestion, and through several years of layout, Guotai Junan earned several times the income.
In 2003, Dan Bin joined Dapeng Securities as chief investment manager. A year later, Dan Bin set up his own portal and established the Oriental Harbor, which led to the "Story of Dan Bin and Moutai".
Because of the heavy position of Moutai but Bin became famous in the first battle, Oriental Harbor won the "Ten Private Securities Fund Management Institutions" award in 2007. Since then, the names of Dan Bin and Oriental Harbor have begun to emerge in the private equity circle.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="164" >04, spotlight</h1>
In 2008, 41-year-old Dan Bin rushed to the United States to meet Munger, accompanied by his childish little daughter, Rose. Munger had said he wouldn't see young people under the age of 40, but Bin had recently celebrated his 40th birthday.
Unlike other private placements, Oriental Harbor's funds almost do not set a stop loss line, so the net value of the product has been cut off, which has caused strong dissatisfaction among investors.
In 2008, there were media reports that Dan Bin was beaten up by investors because of performance problems, which Dan Bin denied. Recently, through the Ye Fei incident, Dan Bin re-clarified the matter on Weibo.
On February 28, 2007, Dan Bin issued the first publicly funded private equity fund, the Ping An Oriental Harbor Marathon. However, shortly thereafter, the 2008 stock market crash occurred, and the income more than doubled to -38.64%. As of February 29, 2012, the net value of the marathon was 1.23, which means that in five years, the product's revenue was only 23.41%. Until the end of the ten-year liquidation, the net value of the marathon was 2.01, the range return was 101.55%, and the annualized return was 7.26%. In the same period, the return of the Rich Country Tianhui A range managed by the public fundraising tycoon Zhu Shaoxing was as high as 295.24%, compared with the performance of Bin.
According to Geshang wealth management data, the average return of equity strategy private equity funds in 2016 was -6.72%, of which less than 25% of the funds achieved positive returns. The city boundary checked Wind data and found that in 2016, Danbin had a total of 22 products that disclosed relevant performance, with an average return of -6.93%, of which only 2 products achieved positive returns, and the income of Oriental Harbor Value Investment No. 2 was 19.04%.
Up to now, a total of 231 products of Oriental Harbor have been included in the private placement network. According to market statistics, in addition to the 8 products that have not yet disclosed their performance, only 16 products have positive annual gains, and the rest of the products have all lost money during the year. The largest loss was Oriental Harbor Star Sea Value Investment No. 1, which was established on March 12, 2020, and as of May 14, the year's return was -21.88%.
On April 30, the private placement ranking network announced the annualized income list of fund managers, but Bin ranked 13th in the five-year performance of fund managers of the order of 10 billion, while Lin Yuan, known as the "private stock god", ranked first, and the two were 12 positions apart.
Performance aside, the reduction of Moutai in 2015 and the beginning of this year still disappointed many fans. Although the reduction helped Dan Bin to escape the top smoothly, this move was not the same as the "persistence in the right direction at the most difficult moments" he preached.
As a public figure, every word and deed will attract market attention. Today, Dong Baozhen is participating in this confrontation from a third-party perspective, and the dispute between the two is becoming more and more intense.
The financial circle is a vanity fair, but Bin has been immersed in it for many years, and now he has labeled himself "not famous" and "most transparent", which makes it difficult for him to stay out of this right and wrong.
Reference: "The Rose of Time", by Dan Bin
(Author 丨 Wang Yan, Editor 丨 Han Zhongqiang)