Venue: Shanghai Hall, 4th Floor, Jinke Hotel, No. 67 Nantiancheng Road, Suzhou High-speed Rail New Town (Conference Hall)
Since April 2018, the "Yangcheng On the Sword" Third National Agricultural Product Analyst Competition, jointly organized by Sina Finance and Agricultural Product Futures Network, has attracted the attention of many domestic agricultural product spot practitioners, and nearly 100 domestic agricultural product spot enterprises, research (consulting) institutions, futures companies, securities companies, individual investors and other industry insiders have signed up to participate.
After 6 months of preliminary competition, through the comprehensive evaluation of the number, number of visits, logic, influence, accuracy and guidance of the market of the registered contestants, such as market analysis, investment strategies, research reports and other articles, 10 outstanding contestants were selected to enter the finals.
Finalist
Wang Wenshen
Zhuo Chuang Information Soybean Meal Analyst, Wall Street Insider Columnist, mainly engaged in oil and fat sector, obtained CIIA and futures investment analysis qualification (TZ015662), and has been interviewed by CCTV, Futures Daily and other media for many times. He has been invited to give keynote speeches at investment conferences such as Yong'an Futures, South China Futures, Lu securities futures, haitong futures, etc., and has been interviewed by authoritative media such as CCTV, Xinhua News Agency, China News Agency, and China Securities Daily on the issue of Sino-US trade involving soybeans.
Selected as a classic article in the 3rd National Agricultural Products Analyst Competition:
"The climate situation in the US bean producing area this year is expected to replicate the situation in 2013!" 》
The 3rd National Agricultural Products Analyst Competition Awards Ceremony and Summit Forum
This year's climate conditions in the U.S. bean-producing areas are expected to replicate what was 2013!
El Niño fermentation has become the focus of recent market institutions, the weekly report of the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has changed the status of the ENSO alert system to "El Niño Watch", its forecast probability of autumn occurrence is 65%, the probability of winter occurrence is raised to 70%, from the quarterly forecast distribution, only 45% probability of July-September, and the later rise all the way to 78% in February-April 2019.
The Australian Meteorological Service's ENSO forecast is relatively conservative, with 4 of its 8 models indicating that the El Niño threshold may be reached in October, and by December the number of models has increased to 6, specifically predicting that ENSO is still neutral at present, but the El Niño threshold has been raised from 3% from December to 6.1% in February next year.
The Japan Meteorological Agency believes that El Niño may have occurred and will raise the probability of occurrence to 50% after October, and wrote in its July report that the global climate is still normal in June, but the probability of normal weather throughout the summer is still large (70%) in the future forecast, but this probability will be reduced to 50% in autumn.
From the extreme climate data of the history of the US Meteorological Prediction Center, the extreme climate trend so far, in addition to not matching with 2016, the trend of other years is likely to be copied, and the trend of 2013, 2014 and 2015 is more compatible with the current trend, and the july-December range of the three years of the US bean range fell by 14.38%, 31.22%, and 7.24%, respectively.
Therefore, from the macro climate point of view, the global climate will end in the second half of the normal state, may be el niño, and the impact on the U.S. beans will be: the northern United States (Great Lakes producing areas) will be arid, the south is more rainy (U.S. Bay shipping), so the el Niño phenomenon will mainly affect the drought in the northern production area of U.S. beans and the shipping in the southern U.S. Gulf, but it is expected that the price boost of U.S. beans is relatively limited. From a microscopic point of view, the current weather in the U.S. bean-producing areas has a limited impact on its growth, according to the latest release of the US drought weekly report, the current U.S. beans are still only 11% affected by drought, and there is no diffusion trend in the area. From the perspective of the excellent rate trend, the most similar trend so far is 2013, and from the weekly drought report on July 23, 2013, the area affecting soybeans at that time was also 11%, and the impact area was basically the same.
By state, as of July 15, 208, the three states with the worst rates were Missouri (40 percent), North Carolina (42 percent), and Kansas (45 percent), while as of July 15, 2013, Kansas (46 percent) was the worst at the best rate, Missouri (53 percent) was the second worst, and North Carolina (59 percent) was sixth.
Therefore, the climate of 2013 seems to be more meaningful for this year's U.S. soybean prices, October 21, 2013 is the last U.S. bean rate report of the year, when the harvest progress has been 63%, so with reference to the drought report on October 22, the impact of drought at that time has expanded to 29%, from the current year's excellent rate trend, the final 57% is down 10% from the first 67%.
With the decline in the excellent rate and the expansion of the dry area, how did the U.S. soybean production change in 2013? In the July 2013 WASDE report, U.S. soybean production in 2013/14 was estimated at 930,800 tonnes, with a yield of 44.5 bushels per mu, compared with 913,900 tonnes after October 2014, with a yield figure of 44 bushels per mu. Judging from the main trend chart of CBOT U.S. bean futures, after hitting the lowest point of 1162.4 points in July in 2013, the U.S. beans fluctuated higher in the following months, and from August to the end of the year, the range rose by 3.89%.
From the historical comparison of the global climate, the second half of the world is expected to end the normal state and turn to the partial El Niño weather, the most expected to replicate 2013, 2014, 2015, from the micro U.S. beans, combined with the current production area weather and excellent rate performance, the U.S. beans are most likely to replicate the 2013 situation, so from the fundamental point of view, the market should pay more attention to the future U.S. beans shock upward opportunities, this year's U.S. beans producing areas should not be overly assured.
Excerpts from articles collected by agricultural futures network:
What is the explanation behind the new high spread between soybean meal 1-5 contracts? 》
"Soybean meal forward arbitrage is about to usher in an inflection point!" 》
"Oil mills buy back the previous contract, soybean meal sits and waits for the basis to return"
"Analysis of soybean meal bulls will lose some teammates again"
"How easy is it to talk about going higher in the later stage of soybean meal?" 》