Although it is only the beginning of October, there is still a period of time before the double eleven, but I still want to make a bold prediction: this year's double eleven will be a watershed - from the birth of 2009, in 2021 officially entered the inflection point, towards loneliness.
The glory of China's e-commerce, double eleven is a milestone existence, I still remember that in 2010, the sales of the double eleven day exceeded the total retail sales of Hong Kong on the day, which brought shock to traditional businessmen, and in 2012, the double eleven day 19.1 billion this big satellite was released, almost all business people no longer doubted, the e-commerce trend has become, only the difference between your hugging posture, and no longer explore whether you need to participate in it.
However, in recent years, the weakness of Double Eleven has been felt by everyone. The early double eleven was really only 24 hours, counting from 0 o'clock in the night, not a second earlier than half a minute. These two years are all kinds of extensions, the so-called double eleven war report, hate can not be half a month's total sales accumulation.
Why is singles' day this year an inflection point? Consumers don't care about the 50% off.
Why is it that this year's Singles' Day will be a more obvious inflection point? In a word: after being trained by the anchors in turn, consumers no longer care about the 50% discount!
In the minds of consumers, the 50% discount is linked to double eleven. In the past," all brand owners stuck to their own "price system" and "released water" twice a year, 618 in the first half of the year and double eleven in the second half of the year.
It's like 363 days of green vegetables and rice, asking for food and clothing, and in the extra two days, killing pigs and slaughtering sheep, letting go of the hand to fight.
The good news is that there is a consensus with consumers: after today, the original price will be restored.
Therefore, the price system of the brand, there is nothing to shake the damage of the foundation, but to harvest a wave of turnover, due to the huge traffic, the unit traffic cost is actually very cheap, the profit is not bad.
But live streaming, subverting all that.
Because live broadcasting is also rolled, especially for the devastating destruction of the "price system" - today's big anchors have a team that understands the supply chain professionally.
They can say in 15 seconds the factory cost of each item you take into the selection room.
Then, combined, counting the pit fee, you lose about 10% of the money as a whole to sell, that is, the price that appears in his live broadcast room is right.
Yes, you heard it right, almost every product you buy in the live broadcast room is now a brand owner losing money and selling, just earning brand exposure, which is used as an advertisement, not as a channel.
Simply put, the 50% discount of double eleven, most of the merchants are profitable, more or less. The classical e-commerce "extensive operation" actually achieves a Nash equilibrium, and the interests of all parties are relatively balanced.
Now the new role of the anchors enters the scene, breaking the balance, and helping the merchants to "refine the operation", in fact, it is the "bottom card" of your merchants that has been peeked at by the anchors!
After calculating your production costs, he quickly estimates how much goods he can bring for you.
Then calculate the pit fee, strictly control you to lose about 10%, is the offer - you lose too much, on the spot said not to play.
If you lose less and even earn some money, whose wool does the consumer steal?
Where do streamers' profits come from? (The small probability event is that the anchor played at a super level that day, and sold too much, which led to you making money.) ）
In essence, it is: the anchor earns real money and silver, the consumer makes wool, the brand earns an exposure, and the platforms are tax-drawn anyway.
Many years ago, Ni Runfeng of Changhong TV once said a sentence that was used as a headline by major newspapers in the face of Gome Suning's accounting model: "This is boiling oil with the bones of our brand owners!" "Hey hey, Mr. Ni, you were still too young back then, compared to today, you still have at least oil in your bones, ahem.
Interject: Why has the financing of new consumption recently been extinguished? The new brand that has too many brains is not very bright, and it is to take the bones of the VC to boil oil for the anchors.
It seems that the rise of the new brand is fast, but in the words of Focus founder Jiang Nanchun: the traffic costs of the tide children have been calculated by the anchor to the nostrils, can you not choke on the water?
Do you want to worry about the traffic of the streamer? As a result, the anchor calculated that the principal was gone.
In the past, some stupid VCs saw high growth and used crazy valuations to blindly invest, and now many have begun to learn.
Consumer goods, in the final analysis, are not Internet platforms, and do not eliminate the second and third places, and even the 20th place is likely to live to be moist.
Therefore, you must blow chaff to see rice, rely on the growth of money, rely on the purchase of traffic to obtain sales, are "stimulant-driven", as soon as you stop the drug, you swim naked on the beach.
Logically, I am still extremely optimistic about the surging tide of new consumption, and it can even be said that the death of these naked swimmers who grow by burning money is more conducive to those rookies who really do a good job.
Speaking of the double eleven, the core is the consumer's end, and the 50% discount has not quenched the thirst. Because on weekdays, Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, Sydney, Simba, Luo Yonghao, Chao Ran, etc. Hundreds of thousands of people, from the head to the middle waist live broadcast room, the five-fold discount is a yarn?!
Now the popular is to buy one get eight free, buy one get thirteen free... Seeing your heart beating, the concept of fifty-fold is so unsay, it has long been unable to hook any consumer impulses.
——Can't help but spit again, the madness in the live broadcast room, but not only domestic brands are following up, in the field of cosmetics that I am familiar with, international big names have "no face".
What Estée Lauder Lan Coco Meier benchmark Lan family three sisters, when crazy, dare to buy 50 ml to get 150 ml ...
On the surface, the "transaction price of a bottle" was kept, but if the "milliliter unit price" was counted, the knot was so broken that even the mother did not know it.
This raises the question of the chain reaction called "ecological niche shifting" in my great unfinished book, "Strategy is The Niche."
Your international first-line is so engaged, it is not your own thing, the international second-line can only be forced to follow up, otherwise the basic disk is not guaranteed.
The international second line has moved down, and the ecological niche of the domestic first line can only be forced to move down.
In the end, even the cheap and low-cost brand of Perfect Diary has been eroded by a lot of shares.
The question is the shore, and then back to the double eleven thing.
Some people have said that since consumers have been spoiled by the crazy discounts and buying gifts of anchors on weekdays, then you double eleven will have a little more discounts and more gifts?
Come on...... Do you think the brand's goods are blown by the wind? Usually, the oil in the bones has been boiled by the anchor almost, do you think you can squeeze out a little more?
The straw on the camel's back really can't be added one by one, there is always the last one, and the camel screams bitterly, "You play, I hang!" ”
Since the second quarter of this year, domestic consumption has begun to be significantly sluggish, and then many industries have exploded and people are panicked.
In August, everyone seems to have felt it, especially recently, even electricity has begun to be lacking, and various unfavorable factors have come.
The "import inflation" of various raw materials has been rising in price, but the retail price has fallen again and again... The only comfort is that the new college graduates, most of them think that they will earn millions a year in a few years... Oh, and while it seems like it'll have to wait a few years to verify, it's a bit late this year.
It really responded to the words of Principal Ma at that time: Today is cruel, tomorrow is even more cruel, and the day after tomorrow is very beautiful, but most people will die in the cold night tonight.
"Burn VC money + little red book to pave the way."
+ Live room loses money to sell traffic "doesn't work."
Since I am a rational optimist, I never look at the future too pessimistically, although there are many difficulties for new consumers.
But the fundamentals are still unchanged, China's supply chain is still actively evolving, and the overall national pride is still rising, so in the stretch, tomorrow still belongs to the new domestic products.
One of the things that I've been feeling more and more obviously lately is that the world used to rely more on "boss ability."
And now we must rely on "the organization can fight", basically five years to grow a new group of young people, and the "martial arts" shelf life is even shorter than 2 years, really too special volume, relying on the iteration of personal ability, is really an unreliable bet.
The root cause of the decline of many new consumer brands will be the "backwardness of the boss", because 99% of the new consumption that has emerged in the past two years is "founder is the product manager", the highest efficiency.
But the trouble is: How can everyone be Jobs? Always on the front lines?
So once the founder's acumen and marketing action appear to be slow and half-beat, it will immediately be slapped to death by the "updated back wave".
New consumer brands, now making 100 million from scratch, are much easier than at any time in history.
But making a billion a year may be harder than it used to be. And more than five billion a year, the odds are as small as the lowest point in history. Therefore, most of the projects invested by most VCs, don't look at the speed from zero to one or two hundred million is a blink of an eye, but stuck in three or five billion can no longer go up, and then shrink, melt, is the fate.
Guyn: Relying on the three axes of "burning VC money + little red book bedding + losing money to sell traffic in the live broadcast room", there is no "ecological niche", without ecological niche, there is no consumer mind, and there is no mental brand, as long as the stimulant stops, sales will immediately shrink.
Then, the morale of the team plummeted, the talent was rapidly lost, and it entered a vicious circle - the founder had a strong heart, carried it, and retreated into "small and beautiful". Those who do not have enough mental strength can not hold on for two years and hang up.
The real "spring" can only thrive on the "agile organization" for rapid change, to achieve an "agile strategy", and to thrive in the crazy wave of new consumption in China – but this is another topic, and this time it will not be discussed.
Finally, I wish everyone to practice their internal skills and welcome the upcoming hand-to-hand feast.