This is a photo of former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (left) with President-elect Lehi in Tehran, Iran, on Aug. 3. Xinhua News Agency
Xinhua News Agency reporter Gao Wencheng Wang Shoubao
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei authorized Lehi to serve as the new president on the 3rd. Lehi will be formally sworn in in parliament on the 5th.
Analysts pointed out that Iran is currently facing a series of internal and external challenges such as economic difficulties, serious epidemics, still sanctions, and difficulties in breaking through the Iranian nuclear negotiations, and The burden on Leahy's shoulders is not light.
The economic epidemic situation is grim
At the empowerment ceremony on the same day, Lehi said that the Iranian people had conveyed their message of demanding "change, justice and fighting corruption, poverty and discrimination" through participation in the election, and that the new government would be committed to responding to people's livelihood problems such as inflation, employment, housing and other livelihood issues and repairing the Iranian people's trust in the government.
Lehi's remarks reflect the serious economic difficulties Iran is currently facing. The United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018 and restarted sanctions against Iran, especially since the "zero exemption" blockade on Iran's oil exports was imposed in May 2019, and the Iranian economy suffered a huge blow, shrinking by 7.6% in 2019. Since then, Iran's economy has improved, and it is estimated that the real growth last year reached 1.5%, but the problems of sharp currency depreciation and high unemployment rates are still prominent.
The severe COVID-19 pandemic also poses a threat to Iran's economy. The number of new confirmed cases in Iran in a single day has reached a new high in recent days. According to data released by the Iranian Ministry of Health on August 2, the country had 37,189 new confirmed cases on the same day, the highest record since the outbreak of the epidemic, with a cumulative total of more than 3.94 million confirmed cases. Health ministry officials expect the outbreak to continue to rise over the next 10 days.
Iranian analysts pointed out that whether Iran can get out of economic difficulties depends on two major factors, one is whether it can control the new crown epidemic, and the other is whether the US sanctions on Iran can be lifted.
The Iranian nuclear negotiations are facing difficulties
To lift U.S. sanctions against Iran, it is necessary to pull the United States back to the Iranian nuclear agreement reached in 2015. However, the current progress of the negotiations between the two countries in Vienna on the resumption of compliance has not been satisfactory. The two sides have held six rounds of indirect negotiations since they began on April 6 this year, but the differences between the two countries remain serious.
At present, both countries have no shortage of pessimistic views on the prospects for negotiations. The Iranian side has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration for maintaining sanctions and following the old path of the Trump administration. The ICA recently commented that the Biden administration's excessive adherence to the Trump administration's sanctions policy may exacerbate Tehran's pessimism and even lead to the closure of the diplomatic window. Khamenei recently denounced the United States and other Western countries for not being credible in the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
The US side has also frequently called for pressure, saying that the negotiations cannot be sustained indefinitely. The New York Times recently reported that Biden government officials have become very pessimistic about the possibility of returning to the Iranian nuclear agreement in the short term, worried that the new Iranian government will accelerate nuclear research and production and put forward new requirements for the United States.
As Lehi was about to take office, the July 29 attack on an Israeli-managed oil tanker in waters off Oman added a new tension between Iran and the United States and the West. The United States, Britain and other countries accused Iran of launching the attack and threatened to respond, which Iran firmly denied. Analysts believe the matter will bring new uncertainty to the Vienna negotiations.
Can Lehi open the situation
Analysts believe that in the face of internal and external challenges, Lehi may open the situation from the following two aspects.
The first is to develop relations with neighboring countries. During his campaign, Lech repeatedly said that neighboring countries would be the focus of his diplomacy. In a recent phone call with Omani Sultan Khaissam and Turkmenistan President Berdymuhamedov, he also said that expanding relations with neighboring countries is a priority and a top priority for iran's new government.
Liu Lanyu, an expert on Iran at the Institute of International and Regional Studies of Tsinghua University, believes that under the continuous sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, trade between Iran and regional countries has shown an upward trend. Iran will continue to ease and develop relations with regional countries and increase economic and trade exchanges with regional countries, so as to alleviate external pressure and get rid of economic difficulties.
Second, develop relations with other major powers in the world. At his first press conference after his election on June 21, Lehi said that successive governments since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran have always been committed to developing relations with China, and Iran will continue to work hard to tap the potential of bilateral relations and promote the development of friendly relations between the two countries.
Hamid Wafae, director of the Center for Asian Studies at the University of Tehran in Iran, expects that the new Iranian government will strengthen communication and cooperation with countries such as China and Russia, among which there is great potential for cooperation with China in the field of economic construction.
Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese, believes that the Lehi government will increase its emphasis on "looking east" diplomatically, and will also seek diversification of Iranian diplomacy.
As for the resumption of negotiations on the implementation of the JCPOA, experts believe that the Lehi government will continue to negotiate with the United States, but the difficulty of negotiations will increase. Fan Hongda said that the Iranian nuclear negotiations involve whether the international sanctions against Iran can be lifted, and if the sanctions are not lifted, they will create insurmountable obstacles to Iran's development, and the Iranian people cannot bear it for a long time, so it is difficult for the Lehi government to ignore the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Liu Lanyu said that As a conservative, Lexi has always been tough on the United States, and the Lehi government may ask for higher prices and make fewer concessions in the negotiations, and the difficulty of negotiations between the two sides may increase.
Xinhua News Agency, Tehran, August 3 (Xinhua) --
Source: Zhengzhou Daily