The fund has fallen beyond recognition in the first 5 trading days of the year, and recently many small partners have returned all the income this year, and even more tragic has hurt the principal. Recently, I have received a lot of messages from friends, is the stock market crash coming? Is there a systemic risk? Can this year's fund still be bought? Today I would like to talk to you about my views on fund investment this year and my general judgment on the market trend this year.
First of all, I don't think the bear is coming, and I don't think the cow is gone, but this "cow" is not the cow you imagined.
I remember a few years ago, I had a brief exchange with a fund manager in his headline comment area, and finally I came to the conclusion that this bull market will show bulls, bubbles, bubbles, and continue to walk bulls... Cycle. Only in this way can we get out of the trend of slow bulls.
I once mentioned a point of view, cattle are cattle, there is no slow bull at all, once the bull trend is formed, it will almost show a unilateral upward trend, until all the stocks worth speculating, after the valuation has reached its peak, it collapses violently, and experiences a long bear market to digest the valuation of the previous surge. This kind of play is a sample of the previous rounds of big bull markets, but this kind of bull will never appear again. History repeats itself, but it will never simply copy and paste and repeat it. This round of stock market rise, can only be called a bull market last July, December-January. These two bull markets, without exception, were all disintegrated in the middle. As for the reason for the collapse, there is only one reason, and the policy does not allow the emergence of mad cows.
The adjustment in recent trading days has been both fierce and urgent, and it is no less than a small stock market crash for the early holding of group stocks. However, the trend of these few days alone will completely lose confidence in the future, and there is no need to worry. Let's talk about why I think the cows are still here this year and the bears are not coming.
Macroeconomically, the internationalization of the renminbi is unstoppable, and the internationalization process of the renminbi is bound to be a process in which our financial market is more open and our policies are more sound.
Why can the United States print money without scruples and cut the world's leeks? Why did Europe move from the European Community to the European Union to use the euro in a unified currency? Because the dollar is the world's currency, because Europe, as an ally of the United States, has had enough of being cut by the United States endlessly. As for how many stumbling blocks the United States has made to the EU as an ally, gossip friends can search for themselves.
With the impact of the epidemic this time, the United States has begun to print money without restrictions, not only the European Union is not willing to be a leek, but all major economies around the world are facing the same problem. It is only a matter of time before the world's currency diversify from a single dollar. The recent fire of Bitcoin, to put it bluntly, is also making this hilarious.
If the renminbi wants to be internationalized, it is certainly not possible for our market to be in a semi-open state in policy. What if the money can't come in? After coming in, how can I exchange the US knife for a US dollar asset and then exchange it for a US knife? Our market is a speculator, every day after buying and earning money to run, so that the stock market yin and yang for a while how to do? It may be easy to say, but it's not something that can be done in a simple sentence or two. Once the market is opened, will the core assets of our market be bought by others in an instant like TSMC? There are many investors like Buffett, just like the BYD stock he holds, if you give us the stock, BYD is so up, can we hold it? Only some short-sighted people will feel that Buffett is speculating in stocks like us, and what people are really doing is buying the future of the company! There are many more factors that restrict us from fully opening up the financial market, but no matter how difficult this thing is, the arrow has to be sent on the string, and this thing must be done.
2. The stock market will surely replace real estate as its economic reservoir. Residents' savings entering the market is a major trend in the future.
Going back a few years and investing in real estate is almost the last investment direction. How much house prices rise in a year, and continue to rise for many years, some places have risen several times 10 times, China's economy has taken off, but China has a lot of house slaves, more than a lot of speculators, more because the house can not marry a daughter-in-law, dare not have children. Why has the policy pressure on real estate increased layer by layer in recent years? High housing prices bring not only simple childless children, but also deeper JJ contradictions! Although real estate has boosted the take-off of the economy, it is now deeply restricting the healthy and sustainable development of the economy.
If house prices do not rise, will the money that invests in real estate or is ready to invest in real estate obediently lie in the bank and eat interest?
Say no, the body is very honest, the tightening of liquidity is the most direct factor in this round of plunge, the various public funds are also very interesting, do not let the rise fall, but this continuous decline is definitely not what I want to see above, which is also part of the reason why I added positions in the last two days. But here I have to emphasize to you, I am in the stage of the rebound, not the reversal, the future market you can refer to the trend after July next year, the difficulty of operation will gradually increase.
However, as all kinds of funds continue to enter the market, the final form of the stock market this year will definitely be volatile, which I am very sure of.
Some people are worried that the continuous plunge will hit some people's investment enthusiasm, of course, the blow is inevitable, but people who have tasted the sweetness will not completely leave this market, go, and eventually come back.
3. The implementation of the comprehensive registration system and a more complete delisting system will truly open the golden period of the fund in the next 5 years and 10 years.
Embracing core assets and giving them an appropriately high valuation is a routine operation for a long time to come.
The core assets of a market are very limited, and if the funds do not buy them, do they have to speculate in small companies like floating private placements? In the early stage, the group was also affected by the comprehensive registration system and the news of the delisting system, but it was only news, and at that time the policy had not yet landed, as long as the policy landed, the dust returned to the dust, where to go. This is one of the reasons why I still believe that the fund will still be worth investing in the future.
Saying so much, just want to give friends who have been hit by the stock market recently a little confidence, the stock market will not return your lost money to you, everyone invests in this market, and makes a loss is a way of cashing in their own cognition. Have a clear understanding of this market, have a clear positioning of yourself, and establish your own investment strategy is the true meaning of really making money from this market.
Smart people can earn smart money, stupid people do not lack stupid ways to earn money, suitable for their own is the best. Many friends summed up the benefits of this period of time, and found that they earned and lost money, and they almost played in vain for a long time. Yes, we may have played in vain in terms of revenue, but what about cognitively? Mentally? This market has never lacked opportunities to make money, even in this case of a big fall, there are still stocks and funds rising, I am also reflecting on myself, why not have the ability to seize those opportunities? Because my own cognition is not in place, I do not know the rising funds, and I am not familiar with the logic that exists but is not within my cognition.
It doesn't matter, as long as we recognize this, slowly think about the truth, and slowly improve our cognition. If I don't earn it today, I earn it tomorrow, but unfortunately, there are very few people who understand this truth and are willing to work hard for it. The money in the market is not that you pay attention to a few big V's, and spend money into a certain circle to obediently run into your pocket.
How many of the old fritters in the stock market have not experienced the beating of the bear market, and dare to say that they understand stocks and trends?