No one says it's hot, right? The strongest cold air since the second half of this year is still moving south and will sweep across a wide area of our country. Whether it is the southern region or the northern region, it will feel a noticeable cold, even a "night into winter" situation. Judging from the situation of the cold wave warning, some parts of Shandong in China have also opened a cold wave, so the impact of cold air is still under continuous southern pressure.
Since the cooling is expected to continue until the 17th, this means that the cooling has not yet reached its peak. According to the situation of the "frozen line", it will at least reach Beijing and Shanxi in China, but in terms of strength, it may continue to affect the south.
Under the influence of cold air, the temperature in China's 22 provincial capital cities may hit a new low in the second half of the year, and most of the central and eastern parts will experience the coldest morning since the second half of the year. Even friends in the southern region will feel the situation of "winter overnight" (also mentioned above). Of course, this is a huge contrast with the climate change in early October, a rapid change of hot and cold, and many people may not have worn autumn clothes directly to winter clothes.
In early October, the subtropical high pressure in the northwest Pacific was strong, not only moving north, but also strengthening to the west. Therefore, the temperature in the south of China is also high, not only in the northern region there is a heat situation, but also after the formation of a "water bridge" in the subtropical high pressure, it leads to rainfall in a large area of China, because the marine water vapor follows the subtropical high pressure to the north continuously, so it leads to the forced docking of the "cold and warm currents", which directly leads to continuous rain. No, today's cold air is finally in a mode of relief, but the rainfall has decreased.
Why is there less rainfall? In fact, the main thing is that the subtropical high pressure is weakened, the water vapor cannot be transported to the north, and there is no docking of "cold and warm currents", so we only feel the cold situation. When the cold air continues to squeeze southwards, we still do not see a large-scale increase in rainfall, but mainly "dry and cold".
Overall, this is indeed a good thing, after all, the impact is much less. Under the influence of cold air, the intensity of cooling needs to be vigilant, that is, there is a clear "cliff-like" cooling, local cooling can reach 16 degrees, and even after strengthening, it may be higher, which requires vigilance.
With such a strong cold air, is there no snowfall? In fact, there has also been snowfall, originally the snowfall is mainly concentrated in the northeast, northwest and other places, of which Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and other places have light snow or sleet, so it seems to be in the northern region. But no, the south of our country is also going to snow, there are obvious signs of snowfall, from the climate center forecast map, in the southwest region of China, Sichuan and other places will appear obvious snowfall weather, although it is a state of sleet, but the snowfall in the southwest region will add a "color" to the snowfall in the south this year.
Snow is about to fall in the south, at least from the forecast, it is coming. However, even if it is sleet, it does not last long, and after the cold air ends on the 17th, this wave of sleet is basically over, which is the general situation. Overall, the impact of this wave of cold air is still not small.
In addition to this wave of cold air, the next wave of cold air is also continuing to brew, it is expected that on October 19, there will be a wave of cold air, so it will lead to the continuation of China's cold climate, which is the impact of cold air.
What's the situation? Snow is falling in the south, is the cold winter warning really coming? This year's cold may really come, according to new data released by NOAA, the probability of the recurrence of the La Niña phenomenon has reached 87%, which means that the double La Niña year may really appear, according to the data released by NOAA, the main data set ERSSTv5, the Niño-3.4 index in September is -0.5 °C, which is already in line with the "threshold" for the emergence of the La Niña phenomenon.
After the emergence of the La Niña phenomenon, this means that the cold air affecting our country this year will be highly active, and more cold air may affect our country, so this year may really be a "cold winter".
Of course, what is said here is possible, does not mean that it is true, because the climate fluctuations are larger, but from the perspective of the La Niña phenomenon, it is more likely to lead to a cold climate in our country. At the same time, combined with the predictions of China's climate center, the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies, this year is indeed a great possibility of temperature reduction, and the cold air mass over Asia may have more opportunities to go south.
So, get thick clothes ready. But whether the real cold winter is going to appear depends on the atmospheric circulation and seasonal climate change. In itself, this year's climate is really a bit "abnormal", high temperatures, big cooling may be only "overnight" in many areas, so such a climate change, in previous years rarely appeared, this year does not seem to have autumn. Instead, it goes directly from summer to winter, so it's quite rare. This also shows that the climate change in the next winter may be more complicated, whether it is a cold winter or a warm winter, we can continue to observe.