Taiwan experts: The probability of the United States inviting Taiwan's military to participate in the Rim of the Pacific exercise is very low

　　The U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee last month passed the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2022, recommending that the U.S. military "invite Taiwan to participate in the Rimpac Rim of the Pacific Exercise." The Taiwan military has made preparations for all-English training and actively strives for the participation of real troops in the RIMPAC exercise. In view of the possibility of Taiwan participating in military exercises, Cai Dongjie, distinguished professor of the Institute of International Politics of Chung Hsing University in Taiwan, said that there are opportunities for participation as observers, but the probability of real soldiers participating is low.

　　Cai Dongjie pointed out that once the United States opens up Taiwan to participate in the RIMPAC military exercise in the form of real troops, it is equivalent to declaring that it will move towards a clear strategy, and the confrontation between China and the United States is about to erupt, but at present, it seems that the United States has no intention of changing its strategy to be vague, so it is unlikely that Taiwan will participate in the exercise. He also mentioned that even if US President Biden previously blurted out his commitment to assist in the defense of Taiwan, judging from the official follow-up supplementary explanations, Biden's statement is only political language and does not represent the official position, and various indications show that the United States does not intend to move towards a comprehensive anti-China posture at this stage.

　　The 2022 Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC) will be held in the waters around Hawaii, and the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Fiscal Year 2022 National Defense Authorization Act in September this year, recommending that the U.S. Department of Defense "invite Taiwan to participate in the 2022 Rim of the Pacific Exercise." According to Taiwan media reports, the Taiwan Navy has made preparations for full English-language training and has actively sought real troops to participate in the Rimpac exercise. Taiwan's military said to the outside world on the 26th that it would actively strive for it under the permission of the task.

　　In view of the possibility of Taiwan's participation in the RIMPAC military exercise. Cai Dongjie said that in fact, in the past, Taiwan also participated as an observer in the Ring Pacific military exercises, and there are probably two ways to participate in military exercises, one is simply to bring observers to the past, and the other is to participate in real troops.

　　He pointed out that In the past, Taiwan had participated in the RIMPAC military exercises as an observer, but in short, it was just a side look and did not join any military exercises, but such participation was actually relatively limited in the substantive sense. So what everyone is paying attention to now is whether Taiwan has the opportunity to join the exercise with real troops?

　　Based on the perspective of strategic stability, the United States naturally hopes that through various means, preferably military coordination training, including RIMPAC, can include Taiwan, so that it can strengthen its ability to deal with China in an all-round way. Cai Dongjie said that from the perspective of the strategic consideration of the United States, of course, I hope that Taiwan will join, and the Taiwan side will certainly respond to it, because this is a certain degree of status improvement, whether in the relationship between the United States and Taiwan, or in international visibility.

　　However, on the other hand, this matter is very sensitive, because once Taiwan joins the military exercise, it will directly step on the red line of Sino-US relations, and the United States will fall into a dilemma.

　　Therefore, from the perspective of rational POLITICS in the United States, Cai Dongjie pointed out that once Taiwan is included in the military exercises, Sino-US relations are bound to reach the bottom, and is the United States prepared in this regard? In other words, unless the United States has decided to move toward a comprehensive anti-China line of no return, it will come true that Taiwan will send real troops to conduct joint exercises with the US military. That is to say, once the United States pulls Taiwan into the RIMPAC exercise, it is the time to really move toward strategic clarity. So now many experts are talking about whether the United States is ready to change its strategic ambiguity.

　　Cai Dongjie said that if the United States opens up Taiwan today to participate in the RIMPAC military exercise in the form of real troops, it will basically prove that the United States has turned to strategic clarity, which is an indicator that can be referenced. However, if the United States decides to move toward strategic clarity, basically a direct confrontation between the United States and China is probably inevitable, and it depends on whether the United States will do this now, but at present, it seems that a direct confrontation with China should not be what the United States hopes at present.

On relevant issues, Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, pointed out earlier that we resolutely oppose the US Congress's promotion and consideration of bills containing Taiwan-related content; Taiwan is a part of China, the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, and the US Government and the US Congress have no right to interfere. The DPP authorities must not misjudge the situation, and any attempt to rely on external forces for "independence" will ultimately fail. Our determination to curb "Taiwan independence" and to curb the collusion between Taiwan and the United States is by no means lip service. (Editing by Xue Yang)