文/Scott Mendelson
As a major distributor of theatrical films, is Paramount coming to an end? That was the question that arose when Brian Robbins succeeded Jim Gianopulous as the new CEO of Paramount. Robbins, who has run the Nickelodeon channel since 2018, is seen as having a friendlier relationship with ViacomCBS boss Shari Redstone, who wants to make "Paramount+" the epicenter of the Viacom world.
Separately, The Hollywood Reporter said insiders said Paramount's change of coach meant the company would cut theater production to focus on fewer blockbusters and more streaming-friendly IP (partly because Robbins didn't have a partnership with the likes of Tom Cruise or John Krasinski). If that's true, then the change for Paramount is really coming, and it's struggled too long in the last six years.
Ten years ago, Paramount took the lead in the global cinema market thanks to dreamworks blockbusters Kung Fu Panda 2, Cat in Boots, Marvel blockbusters Thor, Captain America, and Hasbro blockbuster Transformers: Dark Moon. In the summer of 2008, when pundits ridiculed The Raiders of the Lost Ark 4's $317 million domestic box office for less than Iron Man's $318 million, they all ignored that the films were all Under Paramount's umbrella. Paramount is so good at launching series or blockbuster movies such as Transformers, Iron Man, Star Trek, Ghost Movies, Thor, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, etc., that in 2012 I doubted whether Marvel would be at a disadvantage in the competition because it had to be promoted by the Disney team.
Transformers: Extinction Reborn
But something happened after Martian Mothers and Alien Battlefield. First, Paramount lost two of its biggest brands. In 2012, DreamWorks left Paramount to join 20th Century Fox after the release of The Guardian League, while Disney acquired Marvel in 2009, in which Paramount sold pre-Avengers IP for about $115 million, including theater rights to Thor, Iron Man, and Captain America. The price was so low that I wondered at the time whether it meant that Thor's market wasn't doing well. Disney also bought Lucasfilm in 2012 and then traded Raiders of the Lost Ark for Jerry Bruckheimer in 2013.
Second, the market performance of "non-blockbuster" films fell into a trough in late 2015 and early 2016. Those who once enjoyed watching blockbusters and old-school studio shows either watched blockbusters in movie theaters, watched movies through VOD and streaming, or opted for Netflix.
While disney live-action blockbusters didn't perform well in the market as they entered 2000 (with the exception of Pirates of the Caribbean), they could still make money from "regular movies," such as Fake Marriage (which grossed $317 million in 2009 with a budget of $40 million), Red Dead Redemption (2007, $60 million, $253 million), and Love To House Collapse (2003, budget $23 million, Grossed $165 million).
Of course, these are all star-driven, high-minded, adult-oriented (but most are kid-friendly) movies, but with the exception of the highest-grossing cartoons or successful blockbusters, these movies are usually more profitable than others. Similarly, when Paramount shined through blockbusters in the early 21st century, they managed to achieve $130 million on "Lai Jia Wang Lao V" and $173 million on "The Clover Files" with a budget of $25 million. But with people no longer liking "regular movies," Paramount has endured a difficult 5 years.
For those who love Transformers, Iron Man is essentially a comic book movie, while Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Captain America: Civil War portray themselves as Jack Ryan-esque action-movies or Samuel L. Jackson/Tommy Lee Jones/Ashley Judd-style action/conspiracy thrillers. The climax of the Avengers' "Rocky Army Destroys New York" might have been better, but it was preceded by Transformers: Dark Of The Moon's "The Decepticon Destroys Chicago." Even the underrated "Special Forces: The Rise of the Cobra" (which grossed $300 million in 2009 with a budget of $150 million) is a Marvel Cinematic Universe series. The film's sincerity of production, colorful heroes and villains, and legendary fantasy action made it an IP suitable for children, and it was also a successful attempt by Marvel to make itself accepted by a wide audience through "Thor" and "Captain America". In addition, the success of Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014, the return of Star Wars in 2015, and the Fast and Furious series all made Paramount's efforts to restart Star Trek seem superfluous.
Star Trek: Beyond the Stars ($338 million) and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ($234 million) were waterloo in 2016, while Transformers: The Last Knight grossed $605 million in 2017 (compared to Transformers: Reborn was $1.1 billion).
By the summer of 2017, Paramount's only remaining market appeal ip was Tom Cruise's Mission Impossible series. Previously, Paramount's big IP was either defeated by competitors or found itself out of the current mainstream culture of society (in the face of the social boom triggered by Marvel movies, even Transformers will fall out of favor), and this is just one of the problems Paramount faces, let alone no one will go to the cinema to see "regular movies".
Sonic the Hedgehog and SpongeBob SquarePants: Rescue Adventure
Like Twin Killers, Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot, Mother! The reason why movies such as Annihilation, 13 Hours of Crisis, Overlord, Shrinking Life, Suburban Towns, Beach Ambulance, and Office Christmas Party have not been able to attract a global audience at all is not that "Paramount is terrible", but that "no one goes to the cinema to see adult movies with adult movie stars anymore".
Indeed, the 2016 film Arrival grossed $206 million with a budget of $50 million, and Amy Adams, who plays the heroine, was also nominated for an Oscar. While Extreme Agent: The Ultimate Return grossed dismal north American box office ($45 million), it made a fortune in China ($164 million) and eventually grossed $385 million. Movies like Book Club and Crash Family also did well enough to prove that the investment in them was worth it, and Rocketman brought in $195 million (which is already good for a $40 million budget R-rated, gay-friendly Elton John biographical film).
In addition, A Quiet Place (with a budget of $17 million and a box office of $341 million) led a new series of original horror films. Meanwhile, just before the COVID-19 pandemic, Sonic the Hedgehog (budget $306 million) was about to become paramount's first successful IP adaptation on his journey. However, the pandemic has not only allowed Disney and Warner Bros. to take defensive measures against Netflix and Amazon, but also dealt an absolute blow to Paramount and Sony, and 2020 should have been the year of their "counterattack".
Paramount missed an opportunity to make a comeback with Sonic the Hedgehog, A Quiet Place 2, Top Gun 2: Lone Ranger, SpongeBob SquarePants: Rescue Adventure, and covid-19 instead "forced" it to sell promising titles to streaming rivals such as The Trial of the Seven Gentlemen of Chicago, The Battle of Tomorrow, and Journey to America.
Streaming is now a trend recognized by Wall Street, though it is seen short-sighted as an alternative to cinema viewing rather than a potential alternative to cable TV. After all, movies like A Quiet Place 2 and Top Gun 2: The Lone Ranger are valuable to Paramount because they're a continuation of the theatrical blockbuster series. The same is true of Disney+'s Star Wars, the Marvel Cinematic Universe's TV series, and Netflix's Blade Out of the Sheath sequel. Although the overall theater box office was steadily rising before the coronavirus outbreak, and movie ticket sales were only nominally declining, the vast majority of the domestic box office in the United States came from a smaller proportion of movies released in theaters.
In 2011, the top six films accounted for 16.9 percent of the total domestic box office, and by 2018, that percentage had risen to 25.5 percent. This is not fatal for theaters, but it is catastrophic for studios without "golden IP". In a world where movie stars are insignificant unless they play an important role, Paramount can't survive by reviving the glorious series that preceded it (Transformers, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Star Trek, etc.). In a world where audiences no longer pay for actors, old-time studios are struggling. Since 2004's National Treasure and 2003's Pirates of the Caribbean, even Disney has faced challenges in producing new live-action film series.
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
So if this change of coach is the end of Paramount's position as a theatrical film distribution giant, then a) it's a historical trend; b) it's not entirely due to streaming and COVID-19; and C) it's at least partly due to audiences who say they want "Outnumbered," "Overlord," "A Little Favor," but turn to Venom, Moonlight Panic, and Fantastic Beasts: Crimes of Grindelwald. However, there is a small reason for optimism. According to reports, Warner Bros. CEO Kevin Tsujihara reportedly said that with Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice "only" at the $873 million global box office (despite a $424 million box office at the time of its world premiere), Warner Bros. would double down on safer IPs and franchised IPs (DC Movies, Lego, JK Rowling's Wizarding World Movies, etc.) at the expense of other non-franchise films. I wrote at the time: A) It's a bad idea; B) But it's a good idea but it just means less Pan's Labyrinth and more films like The Intern or Quidditch.
New Line shined in the summer of 2016: The Conjuring 2, Before I Met You, and Agent Oolong, with a total budget of $110 million and eventually grossing $745 million, with Toby Emmerich also promoted to head of Warner Bros. Film Division. In the years that followed, we saw both bland blockbusters (Wonder Woman) and failed blockbusters (King Arthur: Battle of the Beasts), amazing blockbusters (Megalodon), as well as old-school films ("Gold Picking", "A Star Is Born", "Dunkirk", "Joker Returns", "Ready Player One", "Hide the Sea: Beauty Plan", "Mule", "Raging Monster") and other genres and styles, But audiences almost only follow two R-rated killer clown movies.
Notably, the claim that Paramount is reducing the volume and scale of film output is considered insinuation. But looking at the dwindling wealth of the once-Hollywood film giant, thinking about its journey from the late 2000s to the loss of its biggest brand, and then watching Disney usurp cultural dominance in the early 2010s and Paramount's struggles after falling out of favor with "non-blockbuster" films, I was much more pessimistic about Paramount's outlook for 2021 than it was about Warner Bros. in 2016. Paramount will survive, but whether it can grow again remains to be seen.