In recent years, not only the quality of physical consumption has been continuously upgraded, but also the quality and expansion of service consumption. According to statistics, the contribution rate of the service industry to economic growth has approached 60%, and the huge market space for service consumption has long become the consensus of the industry.
"We believe that the potential of e-commerce in the service industry in the future will not be lost to e-commerce in the secondary industry (manufacturing)." This is the future that Wang Xing planned for service-oriented e-commerce when he was listed on the Us group. Not only the US group believes, but so does Ali. From the layout of Ele.me, Fliggy and Hema To the establishment of Ali's local life service company, these practical actions show that consumer services have become an area of great concern to Ali.
However, under the general trend, how can enterprises grasp the development path of service consumption and find a suitable entry point for themselves? How to judge the window period and growth opportunities of each segment? Judging from the comparison of consumption changes between China and Japan in the past, Japan has always been a good model for studying the Chinese market, and has no intention of copying it, but only hopes to find our own possibilities and development opportunities from this neighbor.
Looking back at the changes in Japan's industrial structure from the beginning of the 20th century to the present, Japan's service industry has experienced the following three stages of development:
1. 1920-early 1970: slow development. During World War II, Japan implemented a planned economy, the implementation of heavy industry resources tilt allocation, resulting in a fault in the development of the service industry, after World War II, under the influence of the Korean War, Japan's manufacturing industry quickly absorbed the achievements of the previous waves of scientific and technological revolution in the United States, and then with the upgrading of industrialization, the proportion of employment in the service industry slowly rose.
2. 1970s-1990s: Accelerated development. Japan's economic growth rate began to decline after experiencing rapid growth, and because Japan experienced two oil crises between 1970 and 1980, the proportion of manufacturing GDP reached a peak and entered a period of industrial restructuring, from rough expansion to lean operation, and 2B services, such as information services, consulting services began to appear. From 1980 to 1990, Japan's bubble economy was a period when the 2C categories of tourism, sports, and other entertainment services that could fill their leisure time began to rise. Looking at the development of the retail industry in the service industry, Super Market formats, hundred-dollar stores, discount stores, spa formats have begun to rise, and new retail formats such as convenience stores have also begun to appear. Overall, the share of GDP in the service sector began to expand at an accelerated pace.
3. 1990~Present: Alternating ups and downs. Entering the "Lost 20 Years", Japan's economic structure reform. In the service industry, technological innovation represented by the IT revolution has brought about the rise of the information technology service industry. In the context of globalization, trade-related services have also begun to expand as Japanese manufacturing has shifted overseas. As Japan enters a society with fewer children and older children, the population has decreased, and the medical & health or social security related service industries have seen significant growth, but it has also caused a great negative impact on the development of service industries such as restaurants, hotels, and golf courses.
<h1>First, the trend and structural changes of Japan's service industry</h1>
1. The long-term trend of the development of Japan's service industry
Japan's modern economic growth began around the 1880s, and the table below covers data for nearly 100 years from 1920 to the present. First, from 1920 to the early 1930s before World War II, Japan's share of gdp in the service sector was in a rapidly rising phase, from 34.2% in 1920 to 51.2% in 1930. Along with the rapid development of the service industry, Japan's industrialization process has accelerated.
The Long-term Employment Structure in Japan (1920-2015) (Share of The Population)
Long-term Evolution of Japan's Industrial Structure (1920-2015) (GDP Share)
Therefore, the rapid growth of the commercialization of the service industry did not only occur in the period of Japan's consumption upgrading after World War II, the structural changes of the three major industries, especially the change law of the secondary and tertiary industries that had a certain cyclical alternating rise and fall.
However, during World War II, Japan implemented a wartime planned economy, resources were heavily inclined to heavy industry manufacturing, and the development of the service industry as a "no need, no urgent" industry was seriously affected, accounting for 33.8% of GDP in 1940, which was almost at the same level as in 1920. In 1945, after the end of World War II, Japan was in ruins, and under the social trend of "luxury is the enemy", the 2C retail industry and service industry have been resisted. For example, from 1937 to 1944, the index of mining production in Japan rose from 117 to 146, and the index of production in commerce and services fell from 104 to 61. During the period, the number of employees in the manufacturing industry rose from 5.91 million to 8.09 million, and the number of employees in the tertiary industry fell from 9.94 million to 7.56 million. (Okazaki & Okino, 1993)
According to the [National Economic Calculation] data of the Cabinet Office of Japan, the proportion of manufacturing GDP reached a peak of 42.0% around 1970, and the proportion of employed people also reached a peak of 34.1%. Since then, it has begun to decay, accounting for 26.4% and 25.7% of GDP and 25.7% of employment in 2010. Compared with manufacturing, Japan's service sector recovered to pre-war levels in 1970 at 52.1 percent, and even exceeded 70 percent in 2000. In 2009, this indicator rose to 75.8%, and the Japanese government also began to pay real attention to the study of the service industry at this point in time, and began to establish a unified statistical standard for data statistics in various subdivisions within the [service industry] (broad sense).
In 1970, the share of GDP in the primary sector fell to a fairly low level compared to 17.3% in 1930 before the war, with a share of 5.9%, mainly encroached upon by manufacturing and services. Since then, the service industry has begun to encroach on the share of the manufacturing industry, and Japan has entered the era of deindustrialization. It wasn't until 2010 that the share of MANUFACTURED GDP began to pick up again, at 25.7 percent.
2. Changes in the industrial structure of Japan's service industry
In order to ensure the integrity and continuity of the analyzable data, the analysis of the industrial structure of the service industry here mainly selects the employment structure of each industry.
Japan's service industry (broadly) encompasses a number of segments. However, Japan's definition of the service industry is adjusting at different stages (adding/cutting subdivisions), so it is difficult to obtain valuable data. From the perspective of employment structure, between 1920 and 1935, the total number of employed people in Japanese society rose from 27.26 million to 31.64 million, an increase of 16%, and almost all employment in the first, second, and third industries increased. Looking at the composition of the employment structure in the subdivision, the proportion of employment in the commercial, catering & accommodation, education & medical industries is expanding, while the proportion of employment in finance & insurance, transportation & communication remains basically unchanged. Around 1920, there was a significant shift of labor from agriculture to manufacturing and commerce.
In the 20 years from 1950 to 1970, the segments with large growth rates in the number of employed persons were: real estate industry (CAGR = 16.1%), legal & accounting and other professional services (CAGR = 12.0%), road transport industry (CAGR = 8.1%), etc. The growth rate of the number of employees is smaller / reduced in the service sector: domestic services (CAGR = -3%), fresh service and other categories of retail employment remained basically unchanged (CAGR = 2%), the overall proportion is constantly decreasing, mainly due to the rapid development of Japan's Super Market format in the 1970s, which has a certain impact on the above formats.
From 1970 to 2012, the growth rate of labor input (number of employees) was still looking at the growth rate, the CAGR of the information service industry was 8.9%, the CAGR of the goods leasing industry for business goods was 6.2%, the CAGR of the health care industry (private & non-profit) was 4.9%, the CAGR of other corporate services was 4.4%, and the CAGR of medical (private) was 4.3%. In contrast, the number of jobs in the railway industry, water transport and other industries is decreasing.
Overall, in terms of employment, the growth of the Japanese service industry, mainly the information service industry, is the most significant growth in the corporate service industry. The main reasons are: since the 1970s, the entire Japanese society has changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market under the background of large consumption upgrading, coupled with the two oil crises before the 1980s, forcing Japanese companies to begin to pay attention to the flexibility of production capacity and the leanness of operations, and after the 1990s, Japan has carried out further industrial structure reform, coupled with great changes in the demographic structure, making Japanese companies have to carry out large industrial upgrading regardless of Whether they are B-end or C-end. Because corporate services are mainly outsourced in Japan, and with the globalization of the economy, the distribution of production factors has begun to be internationalized, subdivided and specialized, so in the [Industrial Correlation Table], the proportion of service industry input in the manufacturing industry has risen from 13% in 1970 to 27% in 2000, which shows that in the production process of the manufacturing industry, the penetration rate of external services is constantly increasing.
3. The emergence, growth and decline of service industry segmentation
After World War II, various new service industries appeared in Japan. According to the "Japan Standard Industrial Classification", we will continue to include new and growth formats, and we will continue to eliminate declining formats. Although there will be some delays compared to changes in the state of the economy, it is also possible to grasp the new trends in the industry.
In Japan's service industry (broad sense), the segmentation of the retail industry appeared in 1953 for the subdivision of second-hand retail formats, such as the second-hand automobile industry, the second-hand bicycle industry, and the second-hand magazine and book industry. Since then, home retail (1957), processed food retail, automobile retail, gas station industry (1967), newspaper retail industry (1972) have been included, while also eliminating some industries: uniform price stores, fur products retailing, used bicycle retailing (1967), second-hand clothing industry, second-hand books and magazines industry (1972). In 1967, the classification of japanese restaurants began to be subdivided, and Japanese restaurants, Western restaurants, Chinese restaurants, buckwheat & udon shops, sake breweries, tea shops, etc. appeared. It truthfully reflects the changes in consumption status and lifestyle during this period.
Here are some more examples. In 1957, the theater company, circus, and sports field industry were included. In 1967, bowling alleys, golf driving ranges, car rental industries and other services related to entertainment and sports were included. In the service industry of enterprises, the commodity inspection & market research industry (1957), the creative provision service industry, the business goods leasing industry (1967), and in 1972, the software industry, information processing service industry, information provision service industry and other large-scale growth service industry or management consultant service industry began to appear.
Changes in the classification of Japanese service industry standards
Since then, some new service industries have also begun to appear, which has also had a great impact on the classification of industries. For example, around 1980, the metrology certification industry (1976) and the security industry (1984) were newly established. The biggest change was that in 2002, a large number of new service industries were subdivided and included, such as Internet additional services, prescription pharmacies, elderly related care & treatment, education & learning support, restaurants & accommodation, compound services, etc. In 2007, it was newly established: Transportation & Logistics, Immovable Industry & Goods Leasing, Academic Research & Professional Service, Life-related Services & Entertainment, etc. From the perspective of newly established segments, service industries such as leisure & health service related industries, Internet service industries, drugstores, Home Center, unmanned stores and other new retail formats began to appear and grow in this period
<h1>Second, the history of business changes in the subdivision service industry such as retail and catering</h1>
1. Retail
The history of Modern Retail in Japan began with the advent of department stores in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In December 1904, The Mitsui kimono shop in Japan took advantage of the corporatization, that is, the reorganization of the Mitsukoshi Kimono Shop Co., Ltd., to declare to the society and define the business model of its own department store. Since then, through the introduction of new kimono patterns, styles, etc., expanding in-store categories, and introducing Western bookkeeping methods, we have continuously carried out business innovation, and successfully realized the transformation of traditional kimono stores into modern department stores. Other large kimono shops, such as Shiragan, Matsusakaya, Daimaru, Takashimaya, etc., achieved a similar format conversion to Mitsukoshi kimono shops around the same time.
During world war I (1920s and 30s), Department Stores in Japan were rapidly popularized and developed, and the target consumer group of most department stores before the war was the social elite with high purchasing power (especially Japanese department stores that started with the sale of kimonos, kimonos are still classified as luxury goods in Japan, mainly leased), at this stage, major department stores began to expand the target customer group and introduce a popularization strategy. In 1920, department stores successfully attracted white-collar/blue-collar middle-class customers who emerged from the society by implementing a special bargain sale strategy, setting up stores for daily necessities (cotton fabrics, daily necessities, food and beverages, etc.), and abolishing the rule of dragging off shoes when visiting high-end stores (the japanese used to take off their shoes when visiting high-end stores and temporarily store their shoes to ensure the cleanliness of the store stores). During the same period, private railway companies such as Tokyo and Osaka set up terminal-department stores at railway stations, which also targeted this type of emerging middle-class customers with high purchase potential.
Japanese department stores established their unshakable position in the Japanese retail industry before World War II. After 1920, not only in core metropolises such as Tokyo and Osaka, but also in local second- and third-tier cities , a large number of department stores (Yamagaya in Kagoshima, Tenmanya in Okayama, etc.) appeared. According to the "Shaohe 14-year Provisional National Situation Survey", department stores (203 stores) accounted for 7% of the total retail sales of goods in the country (about 8.54 billion yen) in that year. There are 26 stores in Tokyo City and 11 stores in Osaka City, accounting for 14% and 18% of the total, respectively. Even during the economic downturn in early Shaohe, department stores continued to grow strongly, attracting an anti-department store movement among many small and medium-sized retailers in Japan. In 1937, the "Department Store Law" was introduced to restrict the operation and expansion of department stores, which shows the influence of the department store format on the entire Japanese retail industry at that time.
However, in pre-war Japan, other modern retail formats such as chain stores were largely undeveloped, and although Takashimaya and Shiseido tried them at the time, their impact was negligible compared to department stores. This is very different from the U.S. retail industry, where department stores and chain stores appeared almost at the same time.
After World War II, GMS was the first new format to appear in Japan. GMS is actually a unique offline retail format in Japan, because it integrates chains, supermarkets and discount stores that have appeared in the United States at different times. That is to say: Japan's GMS has the characteristics of the above three formats: 1. chain operation 2.slefservice 3. The category of goods sold is very wide and cheap (mainly food, also covering Japanese general merchandise, clothing, home appliances, etc.). In general, the first GMS appeared in December 1953. At that time, kikoya, a fruit shop in Tokyo and Aoyama, was transformed by introducing selfservice. After this, 1954 Kyoto's Otomo, which was also mainly engaged in food sales,
Wakeaa in Tokyo, Daimaru FoodCenter in '56, etc. have also achieved the transition to GMS by introducing self-service. The first clothing GMS store was Hatoya in Osaka (1955). However, in the initial stage, although the above-mentioned GMS enterprises have launched chain operations, the categories of goods are limited to certain specific categories.
Therefore, the real GMS format began to flourish: around 1960, daie, yokado (later itoyokado) and Okadaya (later jyasuko), which were mainly female customers, began to introduce self-service, chain operations, and expand the product category. Around the same time, department store companies also began to enter the GMS format, such as the Seibu store (later Seibu), Toko (later tokyu store), pikoku store (later Daimaru pikoku).
In the 1960s and 1970s, the GMS format grew significantly. In the 10 years from 1964 to 1974, the number of GMS stores increased from 3620 to 11962, nearly tripled. During this period, the average annual growth rate of sales in the GMS format was 27%, and the average annual growth rate of sales in the entire retail format was 17%. Therefore, in the first half of the 1970s, the market pattern of the entire retail industry began to change, and the department store format, which had previously occupied the first market share, began to be surpassed by the GMS, and in the retail sales ranking, in 1972, the GMS daie successfully surpassed the department store Mitsukoshi to become the highest sales company in the entire Japanese retail industry. In fact, this phenomenon has been reflected in department stores in the 1960s, and in the mid-1960s, the average annual sales growth rate of department stores has begun to be lower than the average annual growth rate of sales in the entire retail format, and the slowdown in growth has become an indisputable fact. Due to the rapid development of GMS, the friction between it and The small and medium-sized retail formats in Japan began to become increasingly intense, and in 1973, Japan once again appeared the expansion restriction law for retail companies, but the target object changed from the former department store to GMS, which shows the dominant position of GMS in the Japanese retail format at that time.
In the same period, as rapidly as the GMS format, there were also retail chains in the Maker series (mainly home appliances, cosmetics and automobiles). In the field of home appliance retailing, Panasonic formed the "Domestic Brand Stores Association" throughout Japan in 1957, and began to transform all retail stores selling Panasonic appliances into specialty stores. By 1971, Panasonic's national shop had reached 12,593. Other makers such as Hitachi, Toshiba, Sharp, Sanyo, Mitsubishi, etc., have also transformed their own retail channels like Panasonic. In the field of cosmetics retailing, Shiseido rebuilt all its pre-war chain store system after World War II, and in 1970 the number of indentured stores (franchise stores) it owned reached 15,000. Other companies such as Kao, Kosei, etc. also imitated Shiseido to introduce the franchise store system, controlling the whole process from production to terminal sales, and in the cosmetics retail industry in 1965, the market share of sales of such direct + direct channels has exceeded the market share of non-direct store channel sales. In the automotive field, taking toyota as an example, after World War II, toyota's sales channels were mainly specialty stores established in cooperation with local capital, and in the mid-1950s, the company began to fund the establishment of direct stores, and in 1968, the number of directly operated stores reached 1937.
As can be seen from the above phenomena, during the high growth period of the Japanese economy, GMS and Maker's series of specialty/direct stores have grown and developed significantly. The latter is very similar to the chain store because it takes the goods directly from the manufacturer's hand, and the store structure and product display are also carried out in accordance with the manufacturer's regulations. In the United States, the rapid development of chain stores appeared in the 1920s, when it was called "chain store age", and the Japanese chain store age appeared in the 1960s-1970s, and the growth momentum was no weaker than that in the United States.
After the second half of the 1970s, the growth of the GMS format began to slow down significantly. Its average annual sales growth rate fell from 34% from 1964 to 1974 to 11% from 1974 to 1985. In the 1982 fiscal year, 60% of the stores of the eight large GMS companies began to decline year-on-year, and even the highest sales of the daie, from 83 onwards, encountered the problem of losses for three consecutive years, and iyokato, the highest net profit, also encountered the problem of loss for the first time in the mid-year final accounting period in August 1981. At that time, the Japanese media even produced similar episodes of the "Winter of GMS" and "Chain Store" ice age to describe the retail format at that time.
However, compared with the stagnation of GMS at that time, from the end of the period of rapid economic growth, Japan's retail format began to have new formats to join. Shopping center (SC), specialty stores chain, CVS, etc. have appeared. SC (mainly the core store of department stores, with specialty stores, restaurants and other commercial facilities), with the Tamagawa Takashimaya SC, which opened in 1969, marked the beginning of the SC format, and by the end of the 1980s, the entire SC format had opened 1,400 stores nationwide. The popularity of SC brought opportunities to the chain introduction of various stores that entered SC at that time. After the early 1970s, some of the stronger stores in the categories of clothing, food, books and other categories began to chain.
The Convenience Store Format (CVS) was created by two subsidiaries of iyokato, the head of the GMS format, sausurando and yokousebun (later 7 11), and opened its first store in 1974 in Koto-ku, Tokyo. Other GMS CVS, such as lawson (daie), family mart (Nishitomo), sankusu (Nagasakiya), sakurukei (uni), etc., have since appeared. For the definition of CVS format: 1. small-scale stores (less than 300 square meters), 2. the number of SKUs of goods centered on daily necessities (about 3000), 3. pricing sales, 4. noon break in 4 years, long-term operation (24 hours), 5.self service, 6. close to residential areas, etc. In particular, the three characteristics of 2, 4 and 6 are the main characteristics of the CVS format (complete categories, convenient time, and convenient distance). CVS began to grow rapidly in the second half of the 1970s and 1980s, and the largest seven eleven reached more than 2,000 stores in 1983, while each store introduced a POS (point of sales) system to strengthen the management of single products and minimize the backlog and out-of-stock of goods in the library. Between 1985 and 1994, the average annual sales growth rate of CVS formats reached 10.5%, which was very eye-catching compared with other retail formats that were plagued by growth difficulties.
In the same period, other retail formats, such as home center, discount store, drag store, category killer, outlet mall, etc., have also appeared, and the trend of diversification of formats has further developed after the 1980s.
After the bursting of the Japanese economic bubble after 1990, the first to be affected were Japan's department stores and GMS, which plummeted in performance under the trend of consumption downgrade and collapsed one after another. Among them, some GMS companies such as Ōei, NagasakiYa, etc. were affected by the early expansion model (similar to Wanda Mall), holding a large number of commercial real estate and liabilities, and the Japanese real estate prices collapsed like a domino effect after the collapse, which was also one of the main reasons why Japanese retail companies retreated from China at that time and gave way to European and American retail companies in the short term. Under the trend of consumption downgrade, Japan's 100 yuan stores (Daiso, Watts, Cando, Seria) and discount stores (Don Quixo, Direct) industry ushered in a period of rapid growth, while UNIQLO and other category killer formats began to introduce SPA business models for end-to-end integration of the supply chain, the pursuit of faster efficiency, the supply chain costs and brand premium to the minimum. Convenience stores are also in the stage of differentiated stratification of Japanese consumption, and they have begun to create the convenience of goods and services providers, creating their own brand goods with fresh food as the main category, and at the same time beginning to introduce financial-related services, transforming their positioning into life service centers. Overall, the supply chain during the economic crisis is more flexible, and the retail formats that focus on low prices and high cost performance are better developed.
Since 2000, Japan's early is still in the lost 20 years, gdp growth rate has remained below 2% for a long time, the rise of Internet technology, while affected by the aging of the population (in 2020, Japan's population over 65 years old will reach 29%, the proportion of single population is 35%), The Japanese retail industry has the following major trends: 1. Strong Hengqiang, began to carry out horizontal format integration, 2. online and offline integration, 3. drugstores began to rise, 4. The rise of extremely low-cost and extreme cost-effective formats. 1 Mainly led by two Japanese retail giants Aeon and 7&i, Aeon's entrepreneurial history is also a history of mergers and acquisitions, which itself was also a merger of a number of Japanese GMS in its early years, and has been acquiring and integrating other formats since then, such as convenience store format: Ministop, drugstore format: Welcia and Tsuruha. 7&i is a merger of Japan's 7-11, the American restaurant group denny's, Japan's GMS Ito-Yokado merger to establish HD, in 2005 after the merger began a wave of mergers and acquisitions, the current 7&i in addition to convenience stores, GMS, catering, as well as department stores (Seibu), specialty stores (Loft), finance (Seven Bank) and other formats. 2 Mainly led by 7&i, relying on more than 20,000 offline convenience stores with a high density offline, omni Mall has opened Omni Mall online to bring together its own and many other Japanese retail channels and retail brands to try the last mile business. 3 Mainly dominated by traditional Japanese drugstores such as Kiyoshi Matsumoto and Welcia, we are trying to make smaller store types and positioning themselves closer to convenience stores. 4 It is still dominated by SPA businesses (Uniqlo, Adastria in the clothing category; Nitori in the home category; including some Select Shops) and the above-mentioned 100-dollar stores and discount stores.
2. Catering industry
Restaurants are a very traditional industry in Japan's service industry. Judging from the number of employed people in the National Situation Survey, it was 378,000 in 1920, and by 1930 it rose to 713,000, and the CAGR was 6.6%. However, under the wartime economic system, it fell to 570,000 people in 1940.
After World War II, restaurants developed rapidly, with a total of 127,000 stores in 1952, and by 1970, it had grown to 426,000, an increase of more than twice. Employment also rose from 379,000 to 1.69 million, an increase of about 3.5 times. The trend of increasing the number of restaurants operating and the number of employees continued until 1990. According to the previous changes in the classification of Japanese service industries, in 1967, the classification of restaurants in Japan increased many segments, not only in terms of the number of stores, but also in the types of stores. From the number of restaurants and shops per 10,000 people, there were 3.6 in 1955, 5.7 in 1965, and 9.4 in 1975, the main reasons are: the rise in the level of urbanization, the increase in office workers, the rise of night consumption, etc., making people's dining scenes more diversified, and the proportion of out-of-food increased. After the bubble economy, the development of restaurants in Japan has also been affected to a certain extent, with the number of stores operating in 1991 reaching 850,000, and has been decreasing since then, falling to 670,000 in 2009. However, in addition to the economic downturn, the decline in the population, the aging of the population, and the shrinking of the metropolitan area are also important reasons for the decline in the total number of stores.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan's "Household Survey", the proportion of household consumption expenditure on food out of Japan did not exceed 0.9% in 1950, rose to 2.7% in 1960, rose to 3.2% in 1973, and the overall proportion of dietary consumption also exceeded 10%. Therefore, restaurants are industries with greater flexibility in changes in income. After 1980, Japan's household food consumption as a proportion of total consumption continued to rise, reaching 4.5% in 2010, in addition to the rising disposable income, the increase in the single population and lifestyle changes are also the main reasons for the increase in its proportion.
Throughout the process, numerous family restaurant brands appeared in Japan, such as Skyraku in 1970, Loyal Host in 1971, and Denny's in the United States in 1974. McDonald's Japan No. 1 store opened in Ginza in 1971, and since then, like retail stores, it has expanded into a chain of multiple stores. In 2007, industries such as ramen shops, yakiniku shops, and hamburger shops entered a new category, indicating that the diversity of the food service industry is expanding.
3. Entertainment service industry
Before World War II, there were a variety of entertainment services in Japan. According to Japan's National Survey, the number of people employed in the entertainment industry rose to 256,000 in 1940, when it was 88,000. The number of people employed in the wine and tourism industry was 159,000 in 1930 and 166,000 in 1940. All indicate that the entertainment service industry had a certain status at that time.
After the wartime planned economy and the post-war revival, people's disposable income and leisure time increased as the market labor time and domestic labor time shortened. In 1960, there was a wave of Leisure Boom, golf courses, bowling alleys, some professional sports, tourism and other service industries began to be popular with consumers. At that time, the first mountaineering sport boom appeared in Japan. Like restaurants, leisure-related services are an industry with a high degree of income-affected consumption elasticity.
In addition to the above industries, the leisure-related service industry that grew rapidly in Japan after World War II includes: the cinema industry, the number of cinemas in Japan was 3480 in 1951, and rose to 8316 in 1960, with a growth rate of more than 2 times. However, it has since gradually decreased, with the number of movie theaters in Japan in 1973 reaching 3,349, down nearly 40 percent from its peak of 8,316. In the same year, Japan had 190 million admissions that year, down 16 percent from 210 million in 1958. The main reasons are: the popularity of color television, one of the new 3Cs, and the diversification of entertainment projects. At the same time, between 1957 and 1973, the number of golf courses in Japan increased significantly from 116 to 773, and the number of active users rose from 1.82 million to 33.65 million per year. Since then, the number of annual active users of golf courses has continued to increase during the bubble economy, peaking in 1992, but the number of golf courses in Japan has been delayed until 2002, when it began to decrease. In addition to golf courses, the number of mahjong clubs, tennis courts, bowling alleys, golf driving ranges, etc. also began to show a significant decline in the 1990s. However, the number of Fitness Clubs has entered a period of rapid growth. In addition, new entertainment services such as the game software industry, sports health classrooms, and relaxation physiotherapy industries have begun to appear. Overall, the above-mentioned entertainment service industry has risen with the upgrading of Japan's large consumption, and the turning point has also appeared in the first half of the Japanese bubble economy in the first half of 1990.
Japan's tourism industry has been on the rise in the post-war 1980s. The number of general hotel facilities rose to 36,000 in 1949, rose to 83,000 in 1973, and continued to increase around 1980 (including the City Hotel and business Hotel). The number of more recreational spa hotel facilities rose from 7,556 in 1957 to 14,006 in 1973, almost doubling in number. The number of annual users, which was 40.7 million in 1957, rose to 120 million in 1973, almost doubled, and then this growth trend continued until 1992. It can be seen that with the increase in the number of facilities, the growth rate of the number of annual users is higher, which shows the further large-scale scale of hotel facilities and reflects the active group travel activities represented by the travel of company members. However, in the second half of the 1990s, both hotels and hot spring hotels began to decline slightly in the number of facilities and the number of people used each year, and now they are mainly supported by foreign tourists, rather than domestic consumers. (Morikawa, 2016b)
4. Other service industries
Beauty salons: The number of grooming homes in Japan rose to 65,000 in 1949 and rose to 139,000 in 1973. The number of beauty salons rose to 26,000 in 1949 and rose to 125,000 in 1973. Since then, the number of grooming homes has remained basically unchanged, and the number of beauty salons has continued to increase.
Cleaning & dry cleaning shops: The number was 17,000 in 1952, rising to 91,000 in 1973 and growing until it began to decrease in 1997.
Medical services: The number of doctors, dentists, and nurses in Japan was 65,000, 22,000, and 125,000 in 1946 at the end of World War II, rising to 126,000, 40,000, and 317,000 in 1973. There was an increase from then until the 2000s. In terms of the number of medical facilities, the number of hospitals after World War II was 3144 (1949), after which it rose to 8188 (1973), and the number of clinics rose from 46,000 (1949) to 72,000 (1973). [5]
After the second half of the 1990s, according to the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the segments of medical services with faster growth in employment were: elderly welfare industry, child welfare industry, nursery school, nursing home, clinic, hospital, etc. (table below). In 2010, the number of doctors rose to 300,000, the number of dentists rose to 100,000, the number of pharmacists rose to 280,000 (90,000 in 1973), and the number of nurses rose to 1.32 million. The medical service industry is a strongly controlled industry because it is affected by the national qualification system and policies, and is also greatly affected by changes in the age structure of the Japanese population, so the scale of the industry will basically only be affected by market supply and demand, and other factors will be less. However, with the rise of per capita disposable income and rising consumer demand for health, Japan's medical service industry must be in an upward trend in the future.
IT-related services: Between 1973 and 2005, the number of institutions engaged in information services increased by 6.2 times, and the number of employed people increased by 11.3 times. Until 1991, these two values had been rising rapidly, and have been slightly increasing since then. Compared with information processing services and information services, the increase in the software industry is more significant, with CAGR of more than 10%. According to Japan's National Survey, the number of IT technicians was 170,000 in 1970 and has risen to 1.13 million in 2000.
Security services: Japan's security industry, which had 1,187 offices in 1973, rose to 9,266 in 2005, an increase of about 7 times, and the number of employed people providing security services also rose from 50,000 in 1973 to 480,000 in 2005. With the increase of office buildings in urban areas, the increase of the elderly population, and the increase in the proportion of people living alone, the demand for security services in society is also increasing.
<h1>Third, several major factors affecting the development of Japan's service industry</h1>
1. The level of urbanization development
There is a significant difference between the service industry and the manufacturing industry: the production and consumption of the service industry are simultaneous. Therefore, it is strongly affected by the geographical part of economic activities such as the scope of business districts and urbanization. Therefore, most service industries have the characteristics of "urban industries". As a result, these industries bear higher rents in areas where economic activity is more active and have a higher player density, but have stronger production capacity per unit area. However, it is precisely because of the rapid development of the service industry that the process of urbanization will become faster. So it's a two-way causal relationship.
Before World War II, the proportion of the urban population in Japan has been rising since 1920, from 18% in 1920 to 38% in 1940. If you look at the urban concentration of industrial activities before World War II, the concentration of Japan's three major metropolitan areas of commerce and service industry reached 57% in 1940. But at that time, the concentration of manufacturing was 62%, higher than that of the service industry. After World War II, Japan's population began to accelerate to concentrate in the three major metropolitan areas. If you look at the concentration of the number of employees in Japan's metropolitan areas, you will find that the proportion of the service industry is increasing, such as the concentration of employment in the narrow sense of the service industry, which was 38.2% in 1951, 46.7% in 1972, 52.0% in 2001, 35.8% in the financial and insurance industry in 1951, 55.1% in 1972, and 56.3% in 2001. In addition, the transportation & communications industry, catering, retail industry all have the same trend of change.
Metropolitan concentration of employed people in Japan
2. Employment of women
Services, unlike agriculture, have a high proportion of women in their employment. In the early period of World War II, comparing the proportion of women employed in different industries, in 1940 it was 28% in industry, 31% in commerce, 65% in accommodation and catering, 57% in services (education & medical), and 51% in agriculture. Before the war, however, there was also a domestic service similar to that of a nanny, with about 700,000 people in 1930, meaning that one in 6 women employed was engaged in domestic service.
Migration map of the proportion of women employed in Japan
After World War II, the proportion of women in employment in the whole society has been in a decreasing trend, until 1975 reached 37% and began to bottom out, this trend of change is in line with the accelerated development of the service industry. During Japan's rapid economic development, whether in manufacturing or service industries, the proportion of women employed has been slowly rising. After 1975, however, the female employment rate in manufacturing peaked, and the proportion of female employment in the service sector began to accelerate, and by 1995, it even surpassed the primary sector. At the same time, between 1975 and 2010, 80 per cent of all female workers in society as a whole chose the service sector (60 per cent for men). By 2015, women accounted for more than 50% of the employment in Japan's service industry, especially in the retail industry, finance and insurance industry, accommodation and catering industry, entertainment industry, education industry & tuition industry, medical and welfare industry, etc. (Morikawa, 2016b)
Such changes in the employment structure are actually affected by the dual roles of the supply side and the demand side of labor. The accelerated penetration of the service industry in the social economy has made the labor supply of women begin to increase, and the further investment of women in the service industry will further promote the development of the industry. The accelerated development of childcare services and nursing care services has released the productive capacity of women who had previously focused only on housework services, and also allowed more women to enter social work. In addition, the demand for female workers in high-growth services, which focus on medical well-being, is stronger than in manufacturing. Against the backdrop of Japan's shrinking labor force, the trend of more and more women entering the service industry will become more and more obvious.
3. Globalization
Over the years, the globalization of services has accelerated, information and communication technologies have developed rapidly, and people can easily cross borders. Between 1980 and 2014, comparing the growth rate of trade in goods and services in Japan, the CAGR of trade in services was 6.5% and the CAGR of trade in goods was 5.0%. Cases of service exports, such as foreign tourists' spending in Japan, have begun to accelerate in recent years.
Changes in Japan's trade in services (trillion yen)
From the perspective of direct investment, in recent years, the amount of domestic and external direct investment in the Japanese service industry has exceeded that of the manufacturing industry, and in the context of Japan's domestic demand saturation, Japan's retail and catering service companies are also actively expanding overseas, which is an important factor supporting the rising development of Japan's service industry in the future.
4. Demographics
From the perspective of Japan's demographic structure, Japan's aging and low birthrate have directly affected the development of Japan's service industry. Japan's elderly welfare industry was included in 1967, and although the proportion of the population over the age of 65 was relatively low at that time, the needs of such people still had to be met. Since then, the proportion of The population over the age of 65 in Japan has gradually increased, reaching about 10% in 1985 and 15% between 1995 and 2000, and began to enter an aging society. In 1993, it can be seen that the fitness club, the elderly health care facility industry, the middle-aged and elderly labor dispatch industry, and even the funeral industry began to appear. Since then, this trend has accelerated, and the proportion of the population over the age of 65 is expected to reach nearly 30% in 2020, which can be seen in the prescription pharmacy, the elderly-related care & treatment industry, education & learning support industry, etc. have also appeared and developed rapidly.
The intensification of the aging phenomenon will also make the impact of the decline in birthrate more and more profound, so the service industry built around children in society will also rise with the rise of the service industry for the elderly. Such as the emergence of nursery schools (1967), the rise of learning schools (1993), and so on. At the same time, under the influence of fewer birthrates, more women will enter social work, which echoes the impact of the increase in female employment rate mentioned in 2 on the service industry.