Financial Associated Press (Nanjing, reporter Jia Xiaoning) news, "double limit" swept the country, the price of bulk chemical products acetic acid also soared, but can this round of rise be sustained? The Financial Associated Press reporter learned from a number of acetic acid production enterprises that the current implementation period of the "double limit" policy is the end of September, and the beginning of October is expected to usher in a smooth start, when the production capacity of acetic acid enterprises will be restored to 90%, and the price increase may be alleviated.
According to the latest price data of the business agency, as of September 26, the highest price of acetic acid in Shandong has reached 9300 yuan / ton (including tax), and the highest in Jiangsu region is 9100 yuan / ton (including tax).
Zhong Mengyao, an industry analyst at Longzhong Information, told the Financial Associated Press that the sharp rise in acetic acid prices was mainly due to the sharp decline in acetic acid production after the "double limit" policy in many places in China. If the recovery of acetic acid production capacity after the National Day is smooth, the situation of continuous price increases is expected to be alleviated, and if it still cannot be restored, then the price of acetic acid may exceed 10,000 yuan / ton.
Serious out-of-stock prices
Zhong Mengyao told the Financial Associated Press reporter that since the beginning of this year, due to the high demand for downstream, especially the PTA industry, the supply of acetic acid has been in a tight balance. Mainly because of a number of acetic acid production enterprises, in the past two years, there have been many accidents, coupled with the routine maintenance of enterprises in the second and third quarters, the supply of acetic acid is small.
According to the Financial Associated Press reporter learned that since September 10, Shandong, Jiangsu double limit has indeed brought production pressure to enterprises, Jiangsu Thorpe (600746 SH), Nanjing Celanis, Shandong Yankuang a total of 3.4 million tons / year acetic acid device production restrictions, coupled with north China, northwest manufacturers in the maintenance of the plant, Shaanxi extended the week to limit shipments, the domestic market acetic acid supply significantly reduced, the weekly supply gap of more than 28,000 tons.
Longzhong information industry monitoring data shows that from September 22 to 26, the number of domestic acetic acid stocks was 71,000-73,000 tons, refreshing the new low of domestic acetic acid enterprises in the past 5 months. It is precisely because of this that the acetic acid market has shown a tight price increase, especially the price has risen sharply. In one week, acetic acid rose by about 2,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 30%, and the price broke through 9,000 yuan / ton to a record high.
In this regard, Zhong Mengyao told the Financial Associated Press reporter that the original acetic acid downstream enterprises in early September, the desire to buy acetic acid is not strong, and just at this time, the double limit of the provinces began, especially in Jiangsu, Shandong and other large acetic acid enterprises in the location of the double limit, the production capacity plummeted, a large number of products reduced production. At this time, every Eleventh National Day before the stock, traders have a certain demand for goods, downstream manufacturers also have raw materials to prepare demand, see the price of products more eager to take goods, in the short term stimulated the price of acetic acid rose sharply.
In addition, jiangsu Thorpe related people also confirmed to the Financial Associated Press reporter that after the introduction of the double limit policy, the operating load of the enterprise dropped to about 70%, the output dropped sharply, and the current product can only guarantee the supply of long-term large customers. The double limit is expected to end at the end of September, after the National Day holiday, if no new policies are introduced, then the production capacity of enterprises will be restored to 90% of the total production capacity, and the price increase is expected to ease.
The high price may remain
According to the Financial Associated Press reporter, the acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang will resume operation before the National Day, but due to the company's own downstream supporting ethyl acetate device resuming work at the same time, the sales volume of acetic acid will increase by only about 200 tons.
In addition, the production capacity that is expected to be restored during the National Day is also jiangsu Thorpewai, Tianjin alkali plant and Ningxia Great Wall, with a total capacity of 1.15 million tons.
According to Longzhong Information, after the National Day holiday, the daily output of domestic acetate will increase by 4200 tons, and the weekly output will increase by 29400 tons. Such an increase basically meets the downstream demand for resumption of work in October.
According to industry-related data, the downstream PTA industry of acetic acid plans to stop production capacity of 8.7 million tons in October, which is basically the same as the capacity of restarted devices, and the overall supply is expected to fluctuate little compared with September. However, downstream ethyl acetate and butyl ester parking manufacturers in September are expected to resume in early October.
Among them, after the recovery of the butyl acetate manufacturers, the daily output is expected to increase by 700 tons, and the weekly output is expected to increase by 4900 tons; the daily output of the ethyl acetate manufacturers is expected to increase by 2250 tons after the recovery of the plant, and the weekly output is expected to increase by 15750 tons. The two industries have a new demand for acetic acid of 20,650 tons per week, and strong demand can ensure the stability of acetic acid prices.
However, industry insiders also believe that whether the double limit will continue to have variables in the future, such as the policy continues to be implemented, the relevant acetic acid enterprises cannot restore production capacity, and the price of acetic acid may continue to rise, and it is not impossible for the price of acetic acid to exceed 10,000 yuan per ton.
The double limit policy has made the future of acetic acid enterprises variable. However, from the perspective of the performance of the secondary market, although the price of acetic acid has risen sharply recently, related companies have fallen continuously. Jiangsu Thorpe fell for four consecutive trading days, a drop of nearly 15%, Huayi Group (600623. SH) fell nearly 20 percent.