According to the monitoring of business agency data, the market of acetic acid industry chain products generally rose sharply in September, and the price of acetic acid rose by 47.69% in September. Affected by the double control of power rationing, the acetic acid industry chain enterprises have more parking restrictions, and the price of the acetic acid industry chain has generally increased.
Acetic acid (also known as acetic acid) is an important organic chemical raw material, which can be derived from hundreds of downstream products, such as acetate, vinyl acetate, acetate fiber, acetic anhydride, terephthalic acid (PTA), chloroacetic acid and metal acetate, etc., widely used in textile, light industry, chemical industry, medicine, food and other fields.
Acetic acid industry chain and downstream demand structure:
Source: Xingxingcha
From the perspective of industrial chain solution, vinyl acetate is the largest downstream of acetic acid. As one of the raw materials such as PVA, VAE, EVA acetal resin and other derivatives, vinyl acetate is used in adhesives, coatings, inks, leather processing, emulsifiers, etc.
Usually, the production of one ton of vinyl acetate requires the consumption of 730 kg of acetic acid. The production and conversion of EVA downstream of vinyl acetate will drive the demand for vinyl acetate by 60,000 tons, and indirectly pull the demand for acetic acid by 43,800 tons.
Although EVA is a relatively small part of the downstream acetic acid, it is currently the most promising downstream application.
From the perspective of the acetic acid market pattern, the concentration of the acetic acid industry is high, and CR5 is close to 50%. At present, Huayi Group has acetic acid production capacity of 1.3 million tons, and Jiangsu Thorpe and Celanese each have acetic acid production capacity of 1.2 million tons, with a total production capacity of 3.7 million tons.
The growth of acetic acid capacity in 2014-2020 is generally rational, while the downstream PTA capacity continues to expand, from 16 million tons in 2010 to 56.96 million tons in 2020, the pattern of acetic acid supply and demand is optimized, and the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity is increased to 80% in 2019, and it will drop slightly to 72% in 2020 due to the epidemic.
According to Baichuan statistics, the new domestic acetic acid production capacity in the next 3 years is only 1.6 million tons, considering the existing demand of at least 500,000 tons per year demand increase, the industry supply and demand balance pattern is still continuing, is expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity.
Under the background of China's carbon neutrality and energy consumption dual control policy and future energy structure transformation strategy, the future coal chemical industry will move towards high-end, clean and market-oriented routes, and enterprises will rely on strong capital, technical strength and other ways to extend the industrial chain, high-end and high value-added to expand profit points will become a trend.
The acetic acid industry is greatly affected by environmental protection policies and carbon emissions and other policies, the industry entry threshold is getting higher and higher, small-scale devices will continue to be eliminated from the market, and the industry pattern will continue to improve.