In September 2020, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigned, and Shinzo Abe left the prime minister's official residence in the palace, and his political career officially came to an end.
Yoshihide Suga, who came from a civilian background, formed a cabinet on the same day and officially became the 99th prime minister of Japan, but what awaited him was Japan, which had a severe epidemic and social shutdown.
As the COVID-19 pandemic sweeps the world, governments are facing no small challenge, and Yoshihide Suga, who has long served as Chief Cabinet Secretary, has a knack for standing out in Japanese politics with many family factions.
However, in the face of the current situation of domestic economic stagnation and numerous colleagues with deep party backgrounds, is Suga the prime minister of the "transitional period"? Or do you really have the skills to get Japan back on track? We can only wait and see.
Suga Yoshihide
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="4" > Koizumi's path to advancement</h1>
In Suga's cabinet, the most notable is The son of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Jinjiro Koizumi. The Koizumi family is one of the oldest families in Japanese politics, dating back to the Meiji Restoration.
Therefore, Kinjiro Koizumi, who came from an old political family, can be said to have been born with a golden spoon, and naturally has more political resources than others. After his brother Koizumi Kotaro announced his entry into the entertainment industry, the family's resources were all concentrated on Koizumi Jinjiro, so Koizumi's political career can be described as smooth sailing.
After receiving a master's degree in political science from Columbia University, "post-80s" Koizumi became a researcher at the American Institute of Strategic International Studies, and returned to Japan the following year to become the secretary of his father, Junichiro Koizumi.
After Junichiro Koizumi announced his resignation, his constituency was inherited by Jinjiro, and the 28-year-old Jinjiro was successfully elected to the House of Representatives.
With such a young age and insufficient political experience, Jinjiro became a member of parliament, which was rare in Both Japan and the world, and it was from this time that his smooth political career was evident.
Junichiro Koizumi
After becoming a member of parliament, Koizumi served as the cabinet minister's administrative officer, the LDP youth bureau chief, and the first deputy officer of the Liberal Democratic Party. The appointment of the "First Deputy Officer of the Liberal Democratic Party" also marks the hope for Shinjiro Koizumi within the LDP, who is vigorously cultivating him to become a rising star in Japanese politics.
In 2019, the Abe cabinet "changed blood", and the 38-year-old Koizumi Jinjiro entered the cabinet as the minister of the environment of the Abe cabinet, and became the third youngest member in Japanese history to enter the cabinet.
This entry into the cabinet has had a huge impact on Jinjiro, and against the backdrop of high approval ratings in domestic polls, Koizumi's entry into Abe's cabinet is also seen as accumulating experience for the future succession of prime minister. The Japanese public generally believes that after the resignation of Shinzo Abe in 2022, Koizumi Jinjiro will be the best candidate for prime minister.
However, the sudden resignation of Shinzo Abe cast a shadow on Koizumi's political career, although Suga is over 70 years old, but there are many people in Suga's cabinet who have strong family power and outstanding personal ability, can Suga pave the way for Koizumi Shinjiro within two years and let the political ambitions of the Abe family and the Koizumi family be carried out?
This can only be left to time to test. For Shinjiro Koizumi, perhaps the last step of becoming prime minister is the biggest challenge he has faced since he entered politics.
Shinzo Abe
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="14" > the interests of the Koizumi family and the Abe family</h1>
The most prominent features of Japanese politics are "hereditary politics" and "the politics of retribution." Under the balance of interests of several major political families, the large families take turns to govern, and their supreme ruling chiefs are "passed down" from generation to generation in this strange balance, and few people can break this situation. The five most famous political families are Abe, Koizumi, Fukuda, Aso, and Hatoyama.
The Koizumi family and the Abe family had a deep friendship during their father's generation. Abe's father, Shintaro Abe, was foreign minister to Yasuhiro Nakasone's cabinet and was known as the Three Leaders of Japanese politics at the time, along with Takeshita Noboru and Miyazawa Ki.
Abe Shintaro himself came from a political family, his father was a famous pacifist politician in Japan, and after marrying kishi Nobusuke's daughter, Abe Shintaro won the strong support of the two major families, and for a time he was in the limelight.
However, the weather was unpredictable, and the future was bright, but on the eve of becoming prime minister, Abe Shintaro died suddenly. Without his father's escort, Abe, who has not yet gained a firm foothold in politics, is in a difficult situation.
Shintaro Abe
Fortunately, However, Junichiro Koizumi, who had been promoted vigorously when Abe Shintaro was minister of foreign affairs, was willing to endorse his son after the death of his mentor, and during Koizumi Junichiro's tenure as prime minister, Abe Entered the Cabinet and eventually took over Junichiro Koizumi's position, replacing his father in fulfilling his long-cherished wish of "one door and three prime ministers".
This is the typical "gratitude politics" in Japan. Although the use of "repaying favors" to generalize does not reflect the balance of interests behind several major political forces, several major families can consolidate their own alliances while also allowing the family's political resources to not have an age gap, and this mutual push and exchange is the fundamental reason why several major families can flourish for a long time.
Therefore, Koizumi's "Prime Minister's Road" is typical of the predecessors planting trees and the descendants cooling down. When Junichiro Koizumi vigorously cultivated Shinzo Abe, the two may have reached a certain sense of tacit understanding.
Koizumi Junichiro's son is young and unable to take over his mantle, but in the middle of the two, Abe Shinzo, whose family lineage and personal ability are very prominent, can play a bridge role in it, which not only repays the grace of the mentor in that year, but also paves the way for his son, which is indeed killing two birds with one stone.
For Shinzo Abe, the cultivation and promotion of the then prime minister was very precious at any level, and it was also the most lacking in Abe at that time.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="24" > Can Jinjiro Suga succeed Suga? </h1>
Although from the perspective of Japanese political tradition and the close relationship between the Abe family and the Koizumi family, it is very likely that Koizumi Jinjiro will succeed as prime minister after Suga Yoshiaki leaves office, but politics is always full of uncertainty, and Koizumi Jinjiro still has a long way to go before he is successfully elected.
First of all, judging from other strong contenders, Shigeru Ishiba, who ran with Suga, was extremely popular and ranked first. Shigeru Ishiba, who has served as defense minister and liberal democratic party secretary general, has a beautiful resume, and he was born in 1957 with a wealth of political experience, which is also his biggest advantage compared to the young Koizumi Jinjiro.
Shigeru Ishiba's father was a member of Suzuki's cabinet, and although the family was not as prominent as Koizumi, he could provide some support for him. When competing with Suga, a poll by Japan's Kyodo News Agency showed Shigeru Ishiba's approval rating at 34 percent, almost twice as much as Suga. Therefore, Shigeru Ishiba's defeat may be more likely to be a balance of interests within the LDP, rather than a personal strength.
In addition, there are strong competitors in Suga's cabinet. The current Minister in Charge of Administrative Reform, Taro Kono, has strong supporters both within the LDP and among the public, and his outstanding political ability is obvious to all.
Unlike Shigeru Ishiba, who is too radical to be "isolated", Kono's political form in the party can be said to be very good, so Kono Taro is also a fairly powerful candidate for the next prime minister.
In addition to the strong challenges of other candidates, Koizumi Jinjiro himself also has many "problems". When he first entered Abe's cabinet, the young Koizumi Shinjiro sang "opposite" with Shinzo Abe. As The Minister of the Environment, Shinjiro Koizumi expressed his anti-nuclear stance on the issue of nuclear power plants, and expressed his anti-nuclear stance in a clear manner by opposing Shinzo Abe's proposal to actively promote the restoration of nuclear power.
After Abe Shinzo advocated the passage of the new security bill, Koizumi Jinjiro also directly criticized and left no room. It is not difficult to see from these things that there are many differences in political issues and propositions between the two people who are in the previous generation. And if he succeeds Abe as prime minister, will the radical and transformative Shinjiro Koizumi continue the "Abe politics"?
Whether Abe, who has worshiped the four times, will not want his "built country" to fall apart like this is also worthy of attention. But when it comes to running for prime minister, Koizumi Also has a unique advantage. The young and energetic Jinjiro Koizumi has not only injected a new breath into Japanese politics, but also brought hope to a seriously aging Japanese society.
The Japanese people affectionately refer to Koizumi Jinjiro as the "Japanese Macron", and they also hope that he can use sharper means and political ideas to get Japan out of the current situation and achieve economic take-off again.
In addition, although the young Koizumi Jinjiro does not have the sophistication and sleekness of an old politician, he is well versed in packaging and propaganda, and through his handsome appearance and radical remarks, Koizumi Jinjiro can often get more attention from the media, and thus can gain greater exposure and let more Japanese people know themselves, which is also the key reason for his high polls.
Coupled with the help and support of Kotaro Koizumi, the eldest brother who is a well-known actor, and the wife of the beauty anchor, Masami Takikawa, Ken Uchisuke, in the publicity mouth, Koizumi Jinjiro can say that he can beat other competitors. At a time when self-media is so developed and news propaganda is so important, this has to be said to be an important weapon, after all, Trump has also relied on Twitter to "rule the world".
Trump
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="36" > conclusion</h1>
After all, a country's prime minister is the foundation of the country, which almost determines the basic direction of a country in a short period of time, so the election of a prime minister is also a top priority. Whether Koizumi Jinjiro can eventually take over Suga, in addition to other external factors, the most important thing is still personal ability.
Therefore, during Suga's tenure, whether Koizumi Shinjiro can grow rapidly and whether he can let the Japanese people and the Liberal Democratic Party see his excellent political qualities is the key to his eventual successful election.
But it is undeniable that backed by the political family, waiting for Koizumi Jinjiro must be a brilliant tomorrow, after all, under the leadership of "hereditary politics" in Japan, even if it is excellent and powerful like Suga Yoshihide, it can only become the "baton" in the factional inheritance.