There are only 10 days left before the 11.24 Taiwan "nine-in-one" election voting day, and according to the relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan's election, from 00:00 on the 14th to the end of the voting time on the 24th, no candidates or election polls may be released in any way. Therefore, the 13th is the last day that the polls can be published before the election.
On the 13th, Taiwan's "Apple Daily" published the last "six capitals" candidate poll before the closure, and at this point, the "nine-in-one" poll war of various media on the island came to an end. "Today's Straits" searched for the last poll conducted by Taiwan's major media on the main candidates of the "Six Capitals" to provide a reference for everyone to observe the direction of the election in ten days.
【Taipei】
Taipei mayoral candidates Ding Shouzhong (left) and Ko Wenzhe (right)
1 "Apple" (11.13): Ko Wenzhe 34.1% Ding Shouzhong 31.4% The gap between the two is 2.7%
2 Lianhe Bao (10.30): Ke Wenzhe 38% Ding Shouzhong 35% The gap between the two is 3%
3 TVBS (10.25): Ko Wenzhe 38% Ding Shouzhong 35% Gap 3%
4 "Zhongshi" (11.12): Ke Wenzhe 40% Ding Shouzhong 33% The gap between the two is 7%
5 "Eastern News Cloud" (11.7): Ke Wenzhe: 38% Ding Shouzhong 36% The gap between the two is 2%
【New Taipei】
New Taipei mayoral candidate Hou Youyi (left) and Su Zhenchang (right)
1 "Apple" (11.13): Hou Youyi 36.4%, Su Zhenchang 30.7% The gap between the two sides is 5.7%
2 Lianhe Bao (11.2): Hou Youyi 54%, Su Zhenchang 26% The gap between the two sides is 28%
3TVBS (11.11): Hou Youyi 48%, Su Zhenchang 34% The gap between the two sides is 14%
4 "Zhongshi" (10.22): Hou Youyi 49%, Su Zhenchang 31% The gap between the two sides is 18%
5 "ETN News Cloud" (11.8): Hou Youyi 39%, Su Zhenchang 34% The gap between the two sides is 5%
【Taoyuan】
Taoyuan mayoral candidates Zheng Wencan (left) and Chen Xuesheng (right)
1 "Apple" (11.13): Zheng Wencan 36.9% Chen Xuesheng 26.8% The gap between the two sides is 10.1%
2 "Eastern News Cloud" (11.8): Zheng Wencan 45% Chen Xuesheng 27% The gap between the two sides is 18%
【Taichung】
Taichung mayoral candidates Lu Xiuyan (left) and Lin Jialong (right)
1 "Apple" (11.13): Lu Xiuyan 34.4%, Lin Jialong 32.0% The gap between the two sides is 2.4%
2 Lianhe Bao (11.7): Lu Xiuyan 43%, Lin Jialong 30% The gap between the two sides is 13%
3 TVBS (10.22): Lu Xiuyan 44%, Lin Jialong 36% The gap between the two sides is 8%
4 "ETTV News Cloud" (11.8): Lu Xiuyan 45%, Lin Jialong 31% The gap between the two sides is 14%
【Tainan】
Tainan mayoral candidates Huang Weizhe (left), Gao Sibo (center), Lin Yifeng (right)
1 Apple (11.13): Wong Wai Chee 25.6% Gao Sibo 21.1% Lin Yifeng 6.5%
2 "ETTV News Cloud" (11.8): Huang Weizhe 30% Gao Sibo 19% Lin Yifeng 17%
【Kaohsiung】
Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Chen Qimai (left) and Han Hanyu (right)
1 "Apple" (11.13): Han Hanyu 35.4% Chen Qimai 32.6% Gap is only 2.8%
2 Lianhe Bao (11.12): Han Hanyu 49% Chen Qimai 32% Gap 17%
3 "Zhongshi" (11.13): Han Hanyu 42.5% Chen Qimai 38.9% Gap is only 3.6%
4 TVBS (11.7): Han Hanyu 48% Chen Qimai 38% Gap 10%
5 "ETTV News Cloud" (11.8): Han Hanyu 42% Chen Qimai 36% Gap 6%
According to the above poll analysis, the comprehensive media observation on the island:
First, in the three cities of New Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung, the candidates of the Blue Camp are steadily leading. Analyzing the polls of various media, although the gap between blue and green candidates is different, some show one-sidedness, some show that the election is glued, but in each poll, the blue camp candidates are ahead of their opponents in these three cities;
Second, in the three cities of Taipei, Tainan and Taoyuan, the gap between the candidates of the Blue Camp and their opponents has been greatly narrowed. Most media polls show that the gap between Kuomintang candidate Ding Shouzhong and current mayor Ko Wenzhe is only 2% to 3%, which is already within the margin of error. In addition, due to the spillover of the Korean Yu effect, the blue camp election situation in Tainan and Taoyuan has also begun to heat up;
Third, in general, the poll gap between the blue and green candidates of the "six capitals" is not large, and when there are still 10 days left in the election, especially in the case of the "closed" of the polls, the final result is still full of uncertainty. According to the analysis of the media on the island, the current momentum of the Blue Camp relies heavily on the spillover of the Han Hanyu effect, and the strength of the Blue Camp in a short period of time will not be solid, and after the polls are closed, the Blue Camp voters will face a big test of confidence. What is even more severe is that the DPP's election masters are like clouds, and they are also more familiar with various election tactics than the blue camp, and the polls are closed 10 days before the election, and it is the best time for the green camp, which is unfavorable to the current election situation, and it is the best time to mobilize votes and use tactics. In addition, the various "Aobu" that the Green Camp is good at, with the help of administrative power, will become the "life-saving straw" of the DPP in the last 10 days.
After the 2014 "nine-in-one" election, Taiwan's blue-green territory will be rewritten in 10 days.
All kinds of conjectures, after 10 days, wait for the mystery to be revealed.
(The source of the picture is from the Internet unless otherwise indicated, please indicate the source of "Today's Straits")