Text/Junjian
With the start of the Philippine election campaign, the term of office of the current Philippine President Duterte has also begun to enter the countdown. At the same time, the Philippines seems to have begun to vote for the United States again, which has planned to resume full-scale military exercises in 2022 and will also attract the United Kingdom and Australia to "observe". The Chinese side has responded to this.
(Zhao Lijian)
According to media reports, in response to a Bloomberg reporter's question about the resumption of military exercises between the United States and the Philippines, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that China has always made its position clear, and china does not oppose these military exercises, but only hopes that these countries can maintain regional peace and stability, and hopes that these military exercises are not aimed at third parties. Zhao Lijian's statement can be said to be the main point. The United States has been planning to use the Philippines to leverage the regional situation, if the United States and the Philippines resume comprehensive military exercises, then the Future Action of the United States in the Western Pacific, especially in the South China Sea, will certainly be greater, and it is not even ruled out that the United States will copy the routine of the Philippines during the Aquino III period. Therefore, the intention of the United States to co-opt the Philippine military exercises, and even bring in Britain and Australia, is self-evident.
(U.S.-Philippines military exercise)
From the perspective of time, the time when the United States and the Philippines intend to resume full-scale military exercises is next year, and next year is just the time for the Philippines to elect a new president. According to Duterte's previous announcement, he no longer plans to continue to run, so next June, he will choose to "retire". At the end of July, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin arrived in the Philippines for a visit, and after meeting with him, Duterte also announced that he had canceled plans to terminate the U.S.-Philippines "Visiting Force Agreement." Although Duterte said that this is only a concession to the United States to provide vaccines, it can also be seen that the attitude of the Philippines is subtly changing as Duterte is about to step down.
(Duterte meets with US Defense Secretary)
For the United States, once Duterte's "eye nail" leaves, then the United States will have the opportunity to manipulate the Philippine political situation. The registration of candidates for the Philippine presidential election has seen some opponents of Duterte, such as the current Philippine Vice President Robredo. The United States may try to prop up "obedient" proxies in order to prepare for the future return of the United States to the Philippines, and even to use the Philippines to provoke incidents.
in Duterte
Of course, the United States should not be too happy too soon, to know that the reason why Duterte "retired" may be to pave the way for his daughter Sarah, because if Duterte father and daughter run at the same time, it is so easy to give opponents a handle. Duterte has previously said that he will not consider a father-daughter partnership. Although Sarah stressed her focus on running for Mayor of Davao City before the registration of her candidacy ended, Duterte's close partner, De la Rosa, has signed up for office on behalf of Duterte's camp. Opinion suggests that this may be Duterte's strategy, as de la Rossa may still transfer the place to Sala until November 15. Duterte also used this trick to avoid the fierce competition in the early stage. De la Rosa also said he wanted to see Sarah run because that would be a more desirable outcome.
in Sarah
Duterte's father and daughter in the Philippines have very high approval ratings, and if Sara runs, her chances of success are very high, and even if Duterte retires, Sara can still carry out his goals. In that case, Duterte's policy of alienating the United States is likely to be perpetuated. Therefore, the United States is now playing a big game, but in the end it is likely to be poured cold water by the Philippines.