I was thinking about the question recently: the consumer industry has been adjusted for more than half a year, is it now possible to look at the consumer industry again? Really, recently Huaxia and other fund companies have begun to move against the market in the field of consumption.
In the past two years, the market has been very clear in terms of structural differentiation: last year, or since the previous year, consumption (liquor), medicine and technology have performed strongly, and other sectors have performed relatively generally, and these three strong sectors have been called "tracks" by investors, and even spoofed a slightly joking slogan "first there is a track and then there is a day".
This year's cyclical stocks and the new energy industry (lithium batteries, photovoltaic equipment and new energy power generation companies) are far ahead, and the consumption and other track industries are not good.
Everyone has a personal experience, after the Spring Festival, consumer stocks have adjusted, the trend of the consumer sector in these months is general, why the adjustment, everyone can also say their reasons: after the rise in the past one or two years, the valuation of the consumer sector led by food and beverages is too high, to a certain extent, the potential of the future trend has been overdrawn; the epidemic has affected the future income expectations of some consumers to a certain extent, and the consumption data is relatively weak and so on.
So back to this article, it has been adjusted for more than half a year, the valuation of the plate has been adjusted a lot, and now it is time to see consumption? For example, Huaxia began to issue food and beverage ETFs of the linkage fund (A share 013125, C share 013126).
reason:
1, bear short bull long
Historically, the consumer sector has produced many bull stocks, and many individual stocks have brought huge returns to investors, and the industry as a whole is also bear short and long.
Let's explain it with data: the segmented food index has been bullish for a long time, creating a significant excess return relative to the broader market.
Since 2005, the subdivision food index has increased by 3040% since its inception on the benchmark day, significantly outperforming mainstream wide-based indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, the CSI 300 and the Shenzhen Component Index in the same period.
2. The U.S. experience
Historically, the consumer industry in the US stock market on the other side of the ocean is also bearish short and long, bull stocks are emerging, and short-term adjustment does not affect the long-term trend.
Buffett, the American value investment master, has also repositioned many consumer industry stocks such as Xishi candy, Coca-Cola, etc., obtained rich returns, and truly made investors around the world realize the huge potential of value investment.
3. Adjust the layout
In the past decade or so, whether it is the bear market brought about by the global economic crisis in 2008 or the industry adjustment brought about by the liquor plasticizer in previous years, each adjustment has given investors a chance to lay out the car.
4. Brand effect
Medicine and technology are very emphasis on technical content, forcing enterprises to continue to invest in research and development, can not idle for a moment, without research and development may let other families surpass, it can be said that the threshold for entry is extremely high.
But the consumer industry is different from the pharmaceutical and technology industries, the consumer industry has a low entry threshold, you think you are a family workshop, you can also brew liquor, soy sauce or produce snacks, a family farm can also produce milk, but the threshold for doing a good job is high, not to mention starting from 0, it is a heavy investment, and it may not be able to create a new Guizhou Maotai, Haitian Flavor Industry or Yili shares.
Mineral water is easy, as long as you choose a good water source, build a good factory on the line, do not need research and development, these years a lot of capital into, these years the most popular or Nongfu Spring, Yibao, Baishi Mountain, Wahaha and so on a few brands.
Production is easy, but it is difficult to build a consumer industry brand that consumers trust, as long as the moat of the consumer brand is still there, the enterprise grasps the channel (terminal) and the brand, and the normal production and operation of the enterprise will not be affected.
5. Valuation regression
In the first half of 2021, the consumption sector represented by food and beverages has adjusted, more than last year, especially at the end of last year and before the Spring Festival this year, under the trend of chasing core assets, a large number of funds have swarmed in a short period of time to bring about a short-term correction after a rapid increase in valuation, and more will inevitably return, after this round of adjustment, the valuation and medium- and long-term performance growth rate have a matching degree, and the long-term allocation value is improving.
Recently, many consumer goods enterprises have frequently moved, Guizhou Moutai has changed its coach, Luzhou Old Cellar has implemented equity incentives, the price of raw milk has risen, and milk companies have also expected price adjustments.
Wind showed that as of the end of September before the National Day, with the rise in the price of raw materials such as soybeans, condiment companies also had a certain degree of price increase expectations.
In such a case, consumer stocks may really have to take a look.
It is also to see this situation, in order to allow more over-the-counter investors to participate in the food and beverage sector-based investment opportunities in the large consumer industry, Huaxia Fund has also begun to issue CSI subdivision food and beverage industry theme ETF initiation linkage fund (A share 013125, C share 013126).
The CSI Food and Beverage Index includes leaders in liquor, dairy products, condiments, beer and other subdivisions.
From the perspective of index trends, due to the subdivision of food and beverage index selection industry leaders, the index trend is better than other consumer industry indexes, which is also the reason why Huaxia Fund launched food and beverage ETFs (515170) and corresponding linked funds.
The fund manager of the food and beverage ETF (515170) and the ETF linked fund (A share 013125, C share 013126) is Xu Meng, executive general manager of the quantitative investment department of Huaxia Fund.
Xu Meng is a master of engineering from Tsinghua University, with 18 years of experience and 8 years of multi-fund product management experience, as of the end of the second quarter of the management of 85 billion funds, Xu Meng's products also include SSE 50 ETF, Hang Seng ETF and other 10 billion SCALE ETFs, it can be said that he has rich experience in fund management.
This time, Xu Meng personally served as the fund manager of huaxia CSI subdivision food and beverage ETF and ETF linkage fund, which can also be seen the importance attached to this fund.
The consumer industry led by food and beverage has been adjusted for more than half a year, the valuation has returned, and some of the consumer industry enterprises have recently moved frequently, investors who pay attention to the large consumer industry may wish to pay attention to it, and the food and beverage ETF (515170) can be paid attention to outside the market, and the food and beverage ETF connection fund (A share 013125, C share 013126) is being issued by huaxia fund.