"Motherland" reporter Yang Chen
Agence France-Presse news on February 24, Venezuelan President Maduro announced on the 23rd local time that Venezuela has severed diplomatic and political relations with Colombia, and asked all Colombian diplomats to leave the country within 24 hours. Maduro announced the decision that afternoon at a rally of supporters of the ruling party. He accused Colombia of supporting foreign militarily interfering in the situation in Venezuela.
The United States will not invade Venezuela for the time being
The situation in Venezuela ushered in the most critical day on the 23rd. The Venezuelan president closed the border between Venezuela and Colombia earlier in the day. The Venezuelan opposition has demanded that the border be opened to allow relief supplies to enter Venezuela. Since the morning local time, opposition and security forces have been engaged in tense confrontations in the border area between the two countries.
On February 23, 2019, local time, in New York, the United States, people protested the U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela. It should be said that at present, the United States has not yet reached the point of sword-rattling with Venezuela, and it is difficult to unify further opinions in the United States on fighting Venezuela. No, the American people have expressed their reluctance to go to war. They are unwilling to shed blood for a small number of oligarchs.
Trump himself is not a member of traditional American political circles, is not close to the financial oligarch, and has not heard that he has too much to do with arms dealers. He himself has a series of ambitious plans to reform the United States. The strategic desire to shrink has made it difficult for Trump to make the decision to go to war. However, this matter may further aggravate the contradiction between the American people and the oligarchs, and the United States may also inevitably argue and march over this matter, and chaos is inevitable for a while.
Recently, it has been rumored that Russia has sent troops into Venezuela, and Putin has taken a tough stance on this. The U.S. offensive difficulties have increased. The country's war preparations are not yet fully prepared, and a quick strike is unlikely. However, the US military operation against Venezuela has been planned for a long time, even if the war cannot be fought for a while, it must be prepared to fight, it is reported that the US military has been assembled in neighboring Colombia, ready to attack Venezuela at any time.
China is firm
According to the Venezuelan opposition, the United States will forcibly open the country's border with Brazil and Colombia on the 23rd to release the relief supplies currently piled up on the Colombian side of the border, and the 23rd is also regarded by the outside world as a "critical day" for the situation in Venezuela. In this regard, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in response to relevant inquiries on the 22nd that China opposes any behavior that will cause tension in Venezuela or even cause turmoil.
Geng Shuang said at the Foreign Ministry's press conference held on the same day that China has noted that the Venezuelan government has maintained calm and restraint in recent times, made every effort to maintain domestic peace and stability, and effectively avoided large-scale bloody conflicts. If so-called "humanitarian aid" supplies are forcibly delivered to Venezuela, once they trigger violent clashes, they will have serious consequences, which all parties do not want to see. China opposes military intervention in Venezuela and any action that causes tension in Venezuela or even provokes unrest.
The United States and other countries disregard the wishes of the Venezuelan people, it is very absurd to support the Venezuelan pseudo-president to replace the current president, the United States relies on its superior military strength, threatening Venezuela, venezuela is weak, but it has always held the head of a fighter high against the hegemonic United States. Where does the country come from, the original Venezuela has its own way of survival, with China and Russia and other countries good relations, perennial military cooperation with the two countries, recently, more news that Russia has sent troops into Venezuela, in the military joint Russia to resist the United States, politically won the support of the two permanent members of the Joint Security Council of China and Russia, the Venezuelan people elected president and the choice of social path, is not so easy to be destroyed by the UNITED States imperialism, this magazine once again collected a set of pictures of military cooperation between Russia and Venezuela, It can explain from one angle why Venezuela dares to be tough on the doorstep of the United States.
Russia issued a tough warning
Following the Russian side's warning to the United States and its allies not to intervene militarily in Venezuela on the 24th of last month, the Russian side issued a similar warning to the United States on the 20th of this month. According to tass news on the 20th, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said in an interview with International Affairs magazine that Moscow warned Washington not to intervene militarily in Venezuela, otherwise it will cause disastrous consequences. "We are warning them against military action against Venezuela, which we believe will have disastrous consequences and undermine the foundations of the Latin American development model, which is unified based on the idea of diversity," the deputy foreign minister said. ”
It is understood that this is not the first time that the Russian side has issued a similar warning to the United States. On the 24th of last month, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov warned the United States and its allies not to intervene militarily in Venezuela. At the time, Ryabkov said in an interview with CNN television that "the Russian side warned every side, not only the United States, but also those countries that may be involved in carrying out such actions to exercise restraint." The use of force could have disastrous consequences. Ryabkov also said that "military intervention may lead to further bloodshed in Venezuela" and can only play a role in "adding fuel to the fire."
Maduro watched the exercise show strength
In response to possible U.S. aggression, Venezuela has taken the lead in carrying out various military exercises in strategic areas of the country to resist U.S. military attacks. In addition to a large number of army equipment and military personnel put into the exercise, some advanced prevention and control weapons have also been unveiled. Venezuelan President Maduro, accompanied by senior generals in the country's military, inspected the military exercises.
"Russia Today" news on the 10th, on February 10, local time, Venezuelan President Maduro launched the most significant military exercise in the country's history. In addition to the army, there are one and a half million Bolivarian militia. The main task is to develop and carry out the operational mechanisms of the country's 8 strategic areas, 24 combat defense zones and 4 coastal defense zones.
U.S.-Russia fighting
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently condemned the U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil companies as "illegal" and warned that external military intervention in Venezuela would have "extremely negative" consequences. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the same day called on the international community to prevent the venezuelan crisis from being resolved in a way that violates the Constitution.
Russian presidential spokesman Peskov told reporters that the sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuelan oil companies are "illegal" and aimed at shaking Maduro's power base. "The legitimate regime in Venezuela has declared these sanctions 'illegal,'" Peskov said, "and we fully support that view." According to Peskov, the sanctions are "blatant interference in Venezuela's internal affairs" and russia will strive to protect its interests "within the framework of international law."
John Bolton, the U.S. president's national security adviser, expects the sanctions to prevent maduro's administration from accessing the Venezuelan Oil Company's $7 billion (47.2 billion yuan) assets in the United States and the $11 billion (74.2 billion yuan) proceeds the company will receive next year on crude oil exports.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in talks with Sierra Leonean Foreign Minister Ali Kaba on the same day that the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies on Venezuela are actually an attempt to confiscate Venezuelan national assets. Venezuelan opposition leader Andrei Juan Guaido, president of parliament, proclaimed himself "interim president" on January 23, which was recognized by the U.S. government. On the same day, Maduro condemned the opposition with the support of the United States as trying to launch a "coup" and announced the severance of diplomatic relations with the United States. At the press conference announcing sanctions against Venezuelan oil companies on the 28th, reporters from a number of media found Bolton holding a notebook with two lines written on it, including "5,000 troops sent to Colombia." This has led to speculation that the United States may be brewing military intervention in the situation in Venezuela.
Media reporters asked Peskov on the 29th whether Russia intended to provide military assistance to the Maduro government once the United States used force against Venezuela. Peskov responded that military intervention in Venezuela would have "extremely negative" consequences and would not help normalize the situation in Venezuela and a political solution to the crisis. "About (military options) ... Guessing is unacceptable. This is an extremely sensitive topic. Similar statements will not help normalize the situation in Venezuela and the resolution of its internal problems at all," he said, "as for third-country military intervention, we have talked from the very beginning about the inevitable and extremely negative consequences of such inappropriate actions." ”
Will Venezuela be the next Iraq?
The United States regards the Caribbean region of the United States as its backyard, and regards the anti-American Regime of Maduro in Venezuela as a thorn in its side.
Will Venezuela be the next Iraq? Venezuela and the United States are close at hand, and the United States has long considered taking care of the country, but it has not found a suitable time. This time, the United States was bullying people as usual, and I did not expect that the weak and small Venezuela would also play a big game, and simply wanted to sweep the Americans out of the house. It seems that he is really not afraid to confront the Americans head-on. Not to mention, Cuba and Venezuela, like two thorns in the back of the tree in the United States, have always maintained their sharp edge and stood tall. The United States has sent troops to Grenada and Panama, and has also beaten up countries such as Mexico, which border it, but Cuba and Venezuela have no fear of the United States. This is truly the wonder of international politics today. But now US President Trump's behavior is often surprising, will he attack Venezuela? The possibility is really there.
However, China and Russia do not agree with the hostile actions of the United States against Venezuela, and if the United States invades the country, the two major powers of China and Russia will resolutely oppose it. In addition, if it is messed up here, it will also hurt the interests of other countries in the world. You must know that Russian troops were once stationed in Cuba, and it can be said with certainty that not only the United States can wield a big stick in the Middle East, the Far East, and Europe, the Americans have moved roughly in their own backyards and beaten our friends; China and Russia will not sit idly by and will certainly support the struggle of the people's democratic countries.
If the United States really sends troops to Syria, Russia may once again copy the Syrian model and continue to send its own volunteers here, so that there is an army similar to the strength of the US military to enter, and the military operations of the US military will not only be severely restricted, but also give the Russians an excuse and opportunity to re-send the army to the US backyard, which is not conducive to the US strategy. In addition, the contraction of the United States in the world is to hope that there will be less blood and less money, and that another war that is not easy to fight will outweigh the losses.
Again, it's because of oil
A big factor in this domestic turmoil in Venezuela is that the United States is behind the ghost, fueling the waves, and the United States regards Maduro as a serious problem. Speaking of Maduro's predecessor, Chavis, is even more of an anti-American rush, and Chaves is a comrade-in-arms of Castro, the former president of the Cuban Council of State, an anti-American fighter in the United States. Therefore, Maduro, who continues Chavis's anti-American spirit, has become a target for the United States to put to death and then quickly;
Venezuela is an important oil exporter in the world because of its large oil reserves, and oil prices have been at a high level for a long time in previous years. Venezuela's wealth has increased greatly, former Venezuelan President Chavis, the implementation of the national high welfare policy, but the passage of time, Maduro came to power not long ago, oil prices plummeted, Venezuela because of oil as its economic pillar, Venezuela's domestic economy gradually declined, so far it has been difficult to help, domestic contradictions are becoming more and more prominent, the United States supports its opposition to make trouble, Venezuela turmoil intensifies.
Venezuela's oil reserves are equivalent to half that of the Middle East. As the consideration of the US dollar, oil has always been regarded by the United States as an extremely important strategic resource. At a time when the status of the oil-dollar system is shaking, the United States has discovered a large number of shale oil resources, which has led to a sharp increase in the oil resources of the United States, and the United States has sought to rebuild a more consolidated dollar-oil system. The major oil producers Iran and Venezuela are not listening to the United States, and Middle Eastern oil producers such as Saudi Arabia are not as compatible with the United States as in the past. Thus, the United States does have an incentive to wage war over oil again.
Iran is far from the United States mainland, the military strength is strong, and the back is russia, the Iranian army is also very tough, and Iran is after all an Islamic world country, and attacking Iran may also threaten the relationship between the United States and other Islamic allies. Therefore, the United States does not dare to act easily against Iraq. But Venezuela is different, although there is no US military in Venezuela, but from Panama and Cuba on the outskirts of the country to Colombia, Peru and other countries bordering the country, there are US military presences. Even if it is based on the US mainland, it will not take long to carry out air strikes on Venezuela, and it will not take long to directly send troops to attack, and Venezuela, which has not undergone the test of war and has backward equipment, cannot block the large-scale attack of the US military. This is the situation that Venezuela is currently facing towards the United States.
The United States has been making military preparations for Venezuela for many years
In fact, the United States has been preparing Venezuela militarily for several years. At the beginning of 2018, panamanians severely condemned the US military exercises and femicide atrocities in the country, but the US military continued to enter Panama from January 2 of that year. The People's Choice movement says Washington has placed Panama at the center of its plan for a military invasion of Venezuela.
The Latin American news agency has reported that in September 2015, 3,200 U.S. military personnel will enter Peru, which has sparked fears and opposition from Peruvian lawmakers and analysts. At the time, the Peruvian parliament also approved an application in September 2015 to allow 3,200 U.S. military personnel to enter Peru through the Peruvian port of Callao. Peruvian lawmaker Juan Parry noted that the U.S. military would carry all kinds of warplanes, high-tech armament and missiles, and asked sarcastically, "Are these people here for a walk?" ”
Peruvian analyst Gustavo Espinosa noted that the U.S. military presence in Peru forms part of the continental U.S. strategy of domination, which is aimed at military adventures aimed at latin American peoples. He noted that Washington's main goal is likely to be to launch a military intervention in Venezuela to undermine the Bolivarian Revolution. He believes the United States is also targeting progressive governments such as Bolivia and Ecuador.
The Russian army made a quick start
According to foreign reports, senior US officials recently said that they are not considering sending troops to Venezuela, but have decided to send troops to Venezuela. And Venezuela's self-styled president Guaido also premeditated to organize people to storm the Venezuelan border passage so that US "aid" can enter the country smoothly. This batch of so-called U.S. aid, is considered to be the "Trojan horse" of the US military, may attack Venezuela us troops into venezuelan territory, and then launch a war against Venezuela, in case of the unexpected, a group of 400-700 Russian special forces are reported to have entered Venezuela, in an attempt to play a role in the US military after the beginning of the INVASION to help the Venezuelan government forces fight.
At present, the Venezuelan government army has about 350,000 troops, the reserve force has millions, even if the US military is fully prepared, easy to enter venezuela, but may also face a strict wait for the street and mountain warfare of the Venezuelan army's military strikes, if the US military to kill civilians in other occupying countries, it is likely to fall into the ocean of people's war, coupled with the United States' national strength has not been as good as before, the United States invasion of Venezuela also has a certain degree of difficulty. Recently, the Venezuelan military has clearly expressed its support for Maduro, making Trump's division of the country's army ineffective, it can be seen that Maduro still has a good foundation among the military and the people of the country, and the subversion of the Venezuelan regime by the United States and the trampling of the people's choice of social path in Venezuela are also unpopular in Venezuela. Now it is rumored that the Russian army has entered Venezuela first, Putin has relied on volunteers to win the absolute initiative on the Syrian battlefield, it can be said that morale is high, anti-American experience is abundant, and it is not impossible to take advantage of the victory in Venezuela to give the US military a pit of power again. However, if the war is big, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Possibly Ecuador will inevitably provide military bases for the Russian army to station large troops and advanced military equipment, and provide strong logistical support, so that the Russian military's deterrence against the US military can be truly effective. It should be known that once the United States launches a large-scale killing spree at the doorstep of its home, the above-mentioned South American countries are in danger of being destroyed and beaten, and instead of being beaten passively, it is better to cooperate with each other and join forces with Russia to resist the United States. In this way, a strategic balance can be formed to preserve the current peaceful environment in these South American countries.
Venezuela should actively prepare for war
Russia and the United States are rivals to each other, and after Putin came to power, Russian-American relations were even more tense. Venezuela from Chavis to the present-day Maduro and Russia have a close relationship, is a quasi-alliance relationship, Russian military aircraft, warships to the Caribbean coast many times to the Caribbean coast to conduct military exercises with the Venezuelan army. This exacerbates U.S. hostility towards Maduro in Venezuela.
At the juncture of domestic turmoil in Venezuela, Russia was the first to stand up for Maduro, and the United States clearly pointed out that the United States was interfering in Venezuela's internal affairs. Let's take a look at a replay of this event:
Venezuela's once-famous "interim president" named Guaido, quickly won the admiration of the United States, in order to show his courage and actions, quickly sent a congratulatory gift to the United States, which made Guaido proud, fluttering as if he really ascended to the presidency.
The current president, Maduro, was extremely angry, severely rebuked the United States for interfering in Venezuela's internal affairs, did not stop doing anything, and immediately ordered the severance of relations with the United States and the expulsion of diplomats from the US Embassy in Venezuela. When Trump learned of this, he was furious, claiming that if Maduro dared to do anything to any diplomat, he would not be able to eat it, and said that the US diplomats would not withdraw, and see what happened to Maduro.
However, a dramatic change occurred soon, with US Secretary of State Pompeo announcing that in view of the unstable situation in Venezuela, all embassy personnel and other nationals in Venezuela must be quickly evacuated and returned home.
As of June 2017, 320,000 active duty, including 160,000 militiamen (created by Chávez since coming to power) and about 40,000 National Guard (equipped with light weapons and 191 Lolita-controlled VN-4 armored vehicles, and some light aircraft) have a 600,000 reserve plan.
On October 30, 2009, the United States and Colombia signed a military cooperation agreement, and the entry of U.S. troops into the country was questioned by Venezuela and other countries. U.S. Presidential National Security Adviser John Bolton announced sanctions against Venezuelan Oil Corporation at a White House press conference and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on January 28, 2019. Reporters from multiple media outlets found Bolton holding a notebook with two lines written, including "5,000 troops sent to Colombia." However, the United States did not confirm this news after China and Russia made their attitude clear. However, if the US military attacks Venezuela, Colombia will undoubtedly be the most advantageous bridgehead.
Although Venezuela is a capitalist country, the country's Marxist-leaning political parties have also pursued socialist policies and been in power for a long time after taking office through elections. Since the people of the Venezuelan Government have chosen such a social path and formed an antagonism with the United States, they should have been prepared for it.