Nearly a month has passed since Guaido, a member of the Venezuelan opposition, declared himself "interim president" on January 23. In the meantime, although the Maduro government has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate, and the international community has also urged Venezuela's domestic peace talks, the stalemate of the "dual regime" is still difficult to crack. With the recent increase in US sanctions, the arrival of many batches of "humanitarian aid" supplies on the Border between Colombia and Venezuela, and the threat of the military by the opposition and Trump to issue an "ultimatum", how long will this crisis in Venezuela last, and how to crack it?
deadlocked
Since the formation of the "one country, two provinces" situation, Maduro and Guaido have taken a resolute and stalemate.
From the perspective of position and demands, the Maduro government mainly adopts the strategy of high-profile preparation for war and actively promoting talks, and has repeatedly expressed its willingness to resolve the crisis through negotiations with the opposition, and can hold parliamentary elections in advance, but the bottom line is not to accept early presidential elections held by foreign countries within a time limit. Guaido advocated the ouster of Maduro through powerful intervention and the threat of force, expanded his power through "internal and external cooperation", refused to dialogue with the Malaysian government, and insisted that the National Assembly (Parliament) organize a new election, otherwise it would "authorize" the United States to intervene militarily.
From a strategic point of view, both sides have done everything in their power, which can be described as a step by step.
First, both sides are vying for military support. Over the past month, Maduro has met with the generals of the three armed forces and inspected the troops, issued a speech of "never be a traitor" to stabilize the morale of the army, and in early February, he ordered the launch of the "largest military exercise in the history of the commission" to show military strength to the outside world. Guaido, for his part, drew the military to "turn the horse" in an attempt to shake the hearts and minds of the military from within, after promising amnesty for soldiers and officers who supported him, and recently threatening the army to make a final choice within seven days.
Second, they all try to control the state power. The Maduro government has communicated and coordinated with the Supreme Court, the Attorney-General's Office, the Election Commission and other agencies, and is now basically supported and cooperated. The commission's prosecutorial organs have begun an investigation into Guaido's treason, and the Supreme Court has banned him from leaving the country and frozen his bank accounts, which is seen as a prelude to further legal measures taken by Maduro. At the same time, Guaido has also made some moves, mobilizing government officials to "abandon the dark and cast light" while convening a meeting of mayors who support the opposition, but there are not many local mayors involved in the meeting.
Thirdly, seek international sympathy and support. In the face of constant pressure from the United States, Maduro highly welcomed the "Montevideo mechanism" that promoted peace talks, and repeatedly expressed his willingness to accept mediation. Maduro himself and the Venezuelan people also wrote letters to the American people, calling on them to uphold justice. Guaido, on the other hand, has successively sent "ambassadors" to countries that recognize him, extending an olive branch of cooperation that will remain in power after coming to power.
Fourth, in the relations between the two sides and the United States, Maduro is retreating and advancing, maintaining Venezuelan-American relations. On the one hand, after announcing the severance of diplomatic relations with the United States, the Maduro government has relaxed its attitude and proposed that it is willing to negotiate with the US government, continue to maintain commercial and trade relations after the severance of diplomatic relations, and establish representative offices of national interests in the other side; on the other hand, in response to the big stick of economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the Maldivian government has also gradually introduced some countermeasures and countermeasures, such as expanding the issuance of petro, striving to become a food exporter, and diversifying the economic structure. Guaido, on the other hand, grasped the banner of the United States and interacted frequently with the US government. At present, the US side has provided $20 million in financial support to Guaido, and "humanitarian aid" supplies have also arrived at the Border of Venezuela.
Confrontation
It is worth noting that as the situation in Venezuela becomes increasingly critical, the struggle is not only within Venezuela, but also the continuous intervention of external forces has made this internal political crisis turn into a major international event.
Immediately after Guaido declared himself "interim president," the U.S. government expressed its support for Guaido. In order to force Maduro to step down, the United States has continuously increased sanctions on Venezuela's economic, financial and oil industries. Russia and other countries oppose and criticize the US approach, calling on Venezuela to resolve the political crisis independently and oppose foreign "destructive interference."
So far, the United States and Russia have had many "confrontations" over the situation in Venezuela. First, at the Security Council meeting, the UNITED States asked other countries to "choose sides", and Russia criticized the United States for using its own "methods and formulas" to solve the actual problems of the Commission. Then, washington and Moscow almost invariably reported sending troops, making the situation in Caracas even more tense. This week, Trump once again pressured Maduro, publicly "stood on the platform" for the opposition in Venezuela, called on the military top brass to stop supporting Maduro, otherwise he may "lose everything", and said that he would not rule out other options, meaning military intervention, and expected that "Latin America is about to open a new chapter." White House spokesman Sanders also dropped his words, saying that the US government has mastered the high-level overseas assets of the Venezuelan military.
Why is Venezuela a "wrestling field"? Some analysts believe that behind it is the strategic interests that are driven, and the game in the region is not limited to today.
For the United States, Latin America is its own "backyard", while Venezuela is a Treasure Land of Latin America with rich oil, gas and gold resources. For a long time, U.S. oil companies and mining companies have held monopoly positions in the commission, and the commission is also one of the main suppliers of U.S. oil. But after the Chávez administration's oil nationalization reforms in the early 2000s, it was difficult for the United States to reap huge benefits from it, and intervening in the Venezuelan oil industry also helped it to further compete with OPEC and Russia for pricing power in the international energy market, thereby maintaining the oil-dollar system. At the same time, the Left Forces in South America, represented by Chávez, insist on independence and self-determination, and use Latin American integration to confront the Free Trade Area plan of the Americas implemented by the United States, which is a "backyard problem" that has caused the United States a lot of headaches. Therefore, supporting a pro-US regime has become one of the strategic considerations of the United States toward Venezuela.
issue
Experts believe that the once-prosperous Venezuela has come to today's predicament not overnight, but has been accumulated by many factors. For example, the decline in international oil prices has led to economic collapse, the formation of antagonism in domestic society for a long time, the policy mistakes of the Venezuelan government, and so on. However, the most important problem facing Venezuela at present still comes from external interference, and the INTERFERENCE of the United States in Venezuelan affairs has become the most important external factor.
Wu Hongying, director of the Latin American Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that Venezuela was originally an economic crisis, and now it has gradually evolved into a comprehensive social, political and diplomatic crisis under external interference. The interference of the United States in the affairs of the Commission is an important factor in making the situation complicated and serious. In international politics, the situation of "one country, two masters" is rare, and the US government has rarely given public support and commitment to "self-proclaimed president". From this point of view, the United States is a kind of "double standard" in handling international relations: how to define democracy? The electoral system is one of the most important criteria, and Maduro is an elected, democratically elected president with legitimacy. However, the United States, which advocates democratic values and liberal politics, opposes the democratically elected president and recognizes "self-recognition of the president," which can be said to have set a bad precedent in international politics and is harmful to the handling and development of future international relations.
Recently, the United States has sent a number of so-called "humanitarian aid" to Venezuela, and the real intention behind it has also attracted attention. There are reports that the convoy carrying relief supplies has arrived on a bridge on the border between Colombia and Venezuela, but the bridge has not been opened since it was closed in 2015. And once the Colombian soldiers clashed, it could become a pretext for the US military to intervene in Venezuelan affairs. Some people also questioned that even if it is really humanitarian relief materials, they can be directly transferred to third-party non-governmental organizations such as the Red Cross to operate, and there is no need for external forces to forcibly threaten the government to open border passages.
Liu Yuqin, former Chinese ambassador to Ecuador, Chile, and Cuba, believes that the United States and some countries are under the banner of so-called "humanitarian assistance," but their intention to interfere in Venezuela's internal affairs is obvious, which also adds chaos to the situation in Venezuela. If the United States is really concerned about the lives and economic difficulties of the Venezuelan people, why should it impose sanctions on Venezuela? Sanctions should hurt the venezuelan people even more.
critical
With external intervention, the situation in Venezuela has reached a critical juncture, and the situation is becoming more and more confusing.
Wu Hongying believes that "one country, two houses" will not be a long-term form, but there is still great uncertainty about whether the Maduro government will stabilize the regime or whether the opposition will legitimize the "interim president" through other means such as re-elections or military intervention. However, it can be said that the struggle between the government and the opposition in Venezuela has become very cruel, and the two sides have reached the stage of struggle of "you die and I live." For maduro's government, the situation is grim. With Guaido enjoying some of the support of the international community, Maduro needs to confront an increasingly powerful opposition. However, in view of the fact that the military, administration, and judiciary have all expressed their support for Maduro, plus the support of left-wing people in the Committee, the Maduro regime still has a certain foundation and initiative.
However, the opposition and external interference will not rest on their laurels. Guaido reportedly issued an "ultimatum" a week in advance, saying That February 23 was the deadline. If the Maduro government still refuses "humanitarian relief," some Latin American countries, led by the United States, will use force to break the military blockade on the Venezuelan border and escort aid in. The relief supplies will be handed over to Guaido to confront the Maduro government's Venezuelan food program. As Guaido receives more and more money and supplies from the outside, and his repeated pressure on the Venezuelan military with Trump, the opposition may have more room for maneuver.
But Wu Hongying also pointed out that the possibility of US military intervention is unlikely. After all, the United States can sanction Venezuela through various means such as economic and diplomatic means, and the means of force are only the last. At this stage, Trump will use military threats to shake the hearts and minds of the military. However, it is believed that the Venezuelan opposition and the United States do not want to turn into a civil war, because once there is military intervention, the conflict will not only bring disaster to Venezuela, but also spread to other countries in Latin America. The United States will also be condemned internationally for once again pursuing hegemonism and unilateralism in Latin America.
way out
So, under the current internal and external troubles, how can Venezuela break the situation?
Wu Hongying believes that due to external intervention, it is difficult to solve the Venezuelan crisis by unilateral forces alone. Despite the current divergent attitudes of the international community, many countries advocate the settlement of the Venezuelan dispute through peace and dialogue. One option is the Montevideo Mechanism, established by Mexico, Uruguay and other countries, which adheres to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and urges the Venezuelan parties to find common ground through negotiations, reach consensus and implement the plan.
Liu Yuqin also said that to solve the current dilemma of venezuela, first, it should oppose foreign interference and let Venezuela follow its own path, rather than overstepping its bounds and letting the so-called foreign powers make decisions. Second, no matter how opposed the Maduro government and the opposition may be, the dispute should be resolved through negotiations. "Historically, no method of military intervention, no war, has been able to fundamentally solve the problem." She also pointed out that most Latin American countries have long pursued a policy of non-interference, and if this kind of interventionism by the United States against Venezuela finally achieves its goal, it is bound to have a considerable impact on Latin America.
In fact, since the 21st century, Latin American countries have repeatedly relied on regional coordination mechanisms to resolve regional differences, including the peaceful settlement of the contradictions between Colombia and Ecuador through the Rio Group summit in 2008 and the use of regional multilateral institutions such as the Rio Group in 2009 to promote domestic reconciliation in Honduras. These successful experiences have shown that Latin American countries have the will and ability to solve the internal problems of the region through themselves.
However, some analysts believe that from the current point of view alone, it is very difficult to promote peace talks. Although Maduro has expressed his approval of the Montevideo Mechanism and Russia has stated its willingness to participate in mediation, the United States and Guaido remain tough. Guaido has repeatedly refused to engage in "false negotiations" with Maduro, unilaterally blocking the way out. The United States also continues to support the opposition, coupled with the fact that some countries have successively recognized the "interim president" of the Commission and set a deadline for the early election of the Venezuelan government, which can only add fuel to the fire and will not help reconciliation. In view of this, the international community should first commit itself to persuading the United States Government to change its position.
Despite the grim situation, the Maduro government has decided to hold a large concert on the 22nd and 23rd at the Venezuelan side of the Simon Bolivar International Bridge on the Colombian-Venezuelan border. The concert will feature peace and life on the theme, with slogans such as "Do not interfere in Venezuela" and "Resolutely oppose war".
Perhaps in the hearts of the Venezuelan people, ending the current chaotic "dual government" situation and returning to peace and tranquility at an early date is the most precious.
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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: Visual China Image Editor: Yong Kai