On October 18, the basic situation of the national real estate market released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the national real estate development investment from January to September was 7,868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; the sales area of newly built commercial buildings was 702.84 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%; The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 6,888 billion yuan, down by 22.7 percent.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office that with the introduction and implementation of a package of real estate policies, as well as the recent changes in the expectations of real estate practitioners, as well as the actual transaction situation of the "Eleventh" Golden Week, there is reason to be optimistic about the follow-up real estate trend.
The growth rate of real estate development investment remained at a low level
Specifically, in terms of real estate development investment, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to September, the national real estate development investment was 7,868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; Among them, residential investment was 5,970.1 billion yuan, down by 10.5 percent.
Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of the Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute, pointed out that although the decline improved in September, it still did not come out of the low level. With the new round of "930 New Deal" driven, coupled with the pull of real estate stocks in early October, it is expected that the growth rate of follow-up development investment will continue to narrow.
Yan Yuejin, vice president of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that although the indicator has been at the double-digit decline level for five consecutive months, the decline has not expanded significantly. The 4 trillion "white list" credit support, so it is expected that the investment side is more likely to bottom. Of course, for a rebound, we have to wait for the housing sales market to continue to rise for more than 3 months.
From the perspective of housing construction, new construction and completed area, the index of new housing construction area has narrowed for 7 consecutive months, and the year-on-year decline in housing completed area index continues to expand. According to the data, from January to September, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 715968 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 501051 million square meters, a decrease of 12.7%. The area of new housing construction was 560.51 million square meters, down by 22.2%. Among them, the area of new residential construction was 407.45 million square meters, a decrease of 22.4%. The area of housing completions was 368.16 million square meters, down by 24.4%. Among them, the area of residential buildings completed was 268.71 million square meters, a decrease of 23.9%.
Yan Yuejin said that the continuous narrowing of the new construction index is due to the active promotion of the financing coordination mechanism and the implementation of better policy guarantees for new construction in various localities. The new construction will be accelerated in an all-round way, and at the same time, it will also create better conditions for the pre-sale of subsequent new housing projects. In addition, some real estate companies have also reduced the amount of new construction through the "purchase instead of construction" model, which objectively helps real estate companies to do a good job in new construction. From the perspective of housing completion indicators, although there has been an expansion, it does not affect the overall judgment of housing delivery. A large part of the reason is related to the scale of land and new construction in recent years. However, the overall results of housing completions have been positive, and it has also created conditions for subsequent buyers to move into new homes faster and better.
Judging from the funds in place, the indicator has shown a narrowing trend of decline for six consecutive months. From January to September, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7,889.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%. Among them, domestic loans were 1,146.6 billion yuan, down by 6.2 percent; the utilization of foreign capital was 2.9 billion yuan, down by 19.9%; self-raised funds were 2,868 billion yuan, down by 9.1 percent; deposits and advance receipts were 2,359.3 billion yuan, down by 29.8 percent; personal mortgage loans were 1,107.9 billion yuan, down by 34.9 percent.
Yan Yuejin believes that after the real estate policy conference of the five ministries and commissions on October 17, it is expected that the improvement of funds at the financial level will be better, and it will also help real estate companies to better plan related development business.
The sales of commercial housing have entered a stable channel
In terms of sales, the year-on-year growth rate of the sales area and sales of newly built commercial houses in the first nine months continued to narrow, and the monthly sales rose sharply in September after experiencing a downturn in July and August.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 702.84 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 19.2%. The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 6,888 billion yuan, down by 22.7 percent, of which residential sales fell by 24.0 percent.
In Yan Yuejin's view, the year-on-year growth rate of the national commercial housing sales area has narrowed for four consecutive months. Considering the good sales situation across the country in October, the indicator has entered the channel of "stopping the decline and stabilizing", and the performance of the indicator repair in October will be very good.
From the perspective of a single month, according to the calculation of China Real Estate Network, the sales area of newly built commercial housing in September was 96.82 million square meters, up 50.04% month-on-month and down 10.82% year-on-year; The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 915.7 billion yuan, up 43.23% month-on-month and down 16.08% year-on-year.
Wang Xiaochang believes that the obvious increase in sales data in September is mainly due to the frequent release of favorable policies in the second half of September, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee clearly urged the property market to "stop falling and stabilize", the stock mortgage interest rate was lowered, and it was the peak season for traditional real estate sales. However, judging from the year-on-year data of a single month, the sales scale of this year's "Golden Nine" is still less than that of the same period last year. Looking forward to the market in the fourth quarter, with the support of policies, market confidence has been boosted, and the bottom of the industry is approaching, and it is expected that the transaction volume of new homes will have greater room for growth.
In addition, in terms of inventory, the area of commercial housing for sale decreased slightly, which is also closely related to the improvement of sales data. As of the end of September, the area of commercial housing for sale was 731.77 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale decreased for seven consecutive months, reaching 376.79 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin said that there are new opportunities for further reduction of the area for sale. The main driving force comes from the local government's special bond collection and storage of inventory housing for affordable housing and the renovation of dilapidated housing in urban villages, which will release the demand for the purchase of existing houses.
The signal of the market bottoming is obvious
Judging from the data in the first nine months of this year, a series of policies to stabilize the real estate market issued by the central government are playing a positive role. The number of residential property inspections has rebounded significantly, and market transactions tend to be active. The real estate market has obvious bottoming signals and has begun to develop in the direction of stopping the decline and stabilizing.
According to the results of a recent survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics on real estate development enterprises and intermediaries in 70 large and medium-sized cities, among the real estate practitioners, the prosperity of new housing practitioners who expressed optimism in September increased by 10 percentage points compared with August, and the prosperity of second-hand housing employees increased by 6.5 percentage points, and the confidence improvement effect is very obvious.
Just one day earlier, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China's real estate market has begun to bottom out after three years of adjustment under the effect of a series of policies. October's data will be a positive and optimistic outcome.
E-House Research Institute believes that the market adjustment is fully in place, and on such basis, there is a possibility of rebound or ushering in an inflection point. From the perspective of housing purchase policy, the market is expected to take the lead in stopping the decline and stabilizing by continuing to reduce the cost of buying a house, boost market confidence and subscription enthusiasm.
On the other hand, the data on the investment side of enterprises also has a chance to stop falling and stabilize. In recent years, the scale of real estate companies has decreased and the investment capacity has shrunk, but because it has been at least three years of deep adjustment of such data, there is a chance for a rebound in the future. Especially in the fourth quarter, real estate companies with good sales may have new forces and performance on the investment side. (Source: China Real Estate Network)