I often hear retired old people say: "Now it is unreliable to raise children to prevent old age, and when you are old, you will count on that retirement pension." ”
Recently, many retirees have also mentioned in their conversations that 2025 seems to be a critical year, and they are worried that from next year, their retirement life may change dramatically.
So what is the actual situation? Let's break it down.
First, the increase in pensions has decreased
Since 2005, the State has established a mechanism for adjusting the basic pension of retirees.
With the passage of time, especially the aging problem, the increase in pensions has gradually decreased.
It can be seen from the change in the proportion of pension increases from 2012 to 2023 in the figure below: the pension increase in the four years from 2012 to 2015 was 10%, and it began to show a downward trend in 2016, and it will directly drop to 4.5% in 2021, and further reduce to 4% in 2022, 3.8% in 2023, and 3% in 2024.
Some experts predict that from 2025, the growth rate of pensions may continue to slow down.
2. Bank deposit interest rates have been lowered
On October 18, a number of banks announced a reduction in deposit interest rates, the second time this year that major commercial banks lowered their RMB deposit rates. (The six major state-owned banks announced 0.8% for three months and 1% for half a year.) ）
This means that the money we have in the bank will earn less interest, and to put it bluntly, it means that the interest of 200,000 yuan saved for 3 years will be 1,500 yuan less.
Third, the pension replacement rate has declined
What is the "pension replacement rate", simply put, is an important indicator to measure the standard of living after retirement, which is calculated by dividing the pension level at retirement by the salary income level before retirement.
For example, if a person earns 10,000 yuan a month before retirement and receives a pension of 5,000 yuan per month after retirement, the pension replacement rate is 50%. According to the World Bank's recommendation, the pension replacement rate should reach 70%-80% in order to basically maintain the original standard of living.
However, as shown in the chart below, the mainland's pension replacement rate has continued to decline in recent years, from 72% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020, with some forecasts that it could fall further to 20% by 2050.
This suggests that pensions are likely to be under more pressure in the future.
In addition, in recent years, the economic recession has led to stagnant or even declining wage growth, and at the same time, prices have risen, and more than 80% of people have downgraded their consumption, so those who can afford it can only find other ways to improve their living conditions.